河北钢铁产能过剩及供给侧结构性改革研究

发布时间：2018-04-21 10:32

  本文选题：钢铁行业 + 产能过剩　； 参考：《河北大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着经济发展步入新常态,加之钢铁产能的扩张与需求的萎缩,钢铁行业产能过剩问题愈加凸显。河北省是钢铁大省,粗钢产量多年全国第一,面对如此严峻的产能过剩情况,对河北钢铁产能过剩及供给侧结构性改革研究就显得尤为重要。本文首先对产能过剩和供给侧结构性改革的概念界定等基本问题进行了分析,然后阐述了目前河北钢铁产业发展状况及产能过剩情况,对河北省钢铁产能过剩的原因、类型,供给侧结构性改革效应进行了分析,以全面了解河北钢铁产能过剩及供给侧结构性改革情况,以期为深化河北钢铁供给侧结构性改革建议的提出奠定坚实的基础。随后本文从“去产能”对河北钢铁产能利用率的影响以及“去产能”对河北省经济的影响两个方面来对河北省钢铁供给侧结构性改革效应进行分析。首先,以两种假设的情况分别分析减少粗钢产量对河北省钢铁产能利用率的影响,得出无论一开始产能利用率怎样变化,最终河北省钢铁产能利用率都是提高的;其次分析了“去产能”对河北省经济的影响效应,运用计量经济学的eviews软件,对相关指标进行分析,依据时间序列建立VAR模型,在对模型进行稳定性检验的基础上通过Grange因果检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分解分析指出河北省的粗钢产量同比增长率与河北省地区生产总值同比增长率存在动态关系,表明粗钢产量同比增长率对地区生产总值同比增长率有影响,即“去产能”对河北省的经济增速有下拉作用,但随着时间的推移,这种影响会减弱直到消失。最后,本文根据对近些年河北钢铁供给侧结构性改革的不足以及河北钢铁供给侧结构性改革效应综合分析,提出深化河北钢铁供给侧结构性改革的对策建议。
[Abstract]:As the economy enters the new normal, combined with the expansion of steel capacity and shrinking demand, the problem of overcapacity in the steel industry has become increasingly prominent. Hebei Province is a big province of iron and steel, and the output of crude steel is the first in China for many years. In the face of such severe overcapacity situation, it is particularly important to study the overcapacity of iron and steel and the structural reform on the supply side of Hebei Province. This paper first analyzes the basic problems such as overcapacity and the definition of supply-side structural reform, and then expounds the present situation of iron and steel industry development and overcapacity in Hebei Province, the causes and types of overcapacity in Hebei Province. The effect of supply-side structural reform is analyzed in order to understand the overcapacity and supply-side structural reform of Hebei iron and steel in order to lay a solid foundation for deepening the suggestion of supply-side structural reform of Hebei iron and steel. Then this paper analyzes the effect of structural reform on the supply side of iron and steel in Hebei Province from two aspects: the influence of "deproductivity" on the utilization ratio of Hebei iron and steel production capacity and the effect of "deproductivity" on the economy of Hebei Province. Firstly, the paper analyzes the influence of reducing crude steel output on the utilization ratio of iron and steel capacity in Hebei Province by two hypotheses, and concludes that the utilization ratio of iron and steel capacity in Hebei Province will be improved in the end, no matter how the capacity utilization ratio changes at the beginning. Secondly, this paper analyzes the effect of "deproductivity" on the economy of Hebei Province, and uses econometrics eviews software to analyze the related indexes and establish the VAR model according to the time series. Based on the stability test of the model, Grange causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis show that there is a dynamic relationship between the annual growth rate of crude steel output in Hebei Province and the annual growth rate of gross domestic product in Hebei Province. This indicates that the annual growth rate of crude steel production has an impact on the regional GDP growth rate, that is, "deproductivity" has a pull-down effect on economic growth in Hebei Province, but over time the impact will weaken until it disappears. Finally, based on the analysis of the deficiency of the structural reform on the supply side of Hebei Iron and Steel in recent years and the comprehensive analysis of the effect of the structural reform on the supply side of the iron and steel in Hebei Province, this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions for deepening the structural reform on the supply side
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F426.31
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本文编号：1782051