基于云模型的宣城市水资源承载力及水资源配置研究

发布时间：2018-04-24 06:08

  本文选题：水资源承载力 + 云模型　； 参考：《合肥工业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：安徽省水资源时空分布不均,人均水资源量相对较少,局部地区水污染严重,加之居民节水意识淡薄和再生水利用率低等原因,水资源已成为其国民经济发展的瓶颈和关键因素之一。本文以宣城市为例,对宣城市水资源承载力和水资源优化配置进行探讨和研究,以期为当地水资源的可持续开发利用提供借鉴。本文以宣城市水资源综合规划、水资源公报和安徽省统计年鉴等为数据基础,从水资源系统、生态环境系统、社会系统和经济系统四方面按相关原则选取了18个评价指标,根据评价等级和相关文献报告的经验,通过试算确定了各指标的云模型3个数字特征、9)和0),构建了基于云模型的宣城市水资源承载力评价模型。由AHP法和熵权法完成组合赋权,运用正向云发生器求取宣城市2010~2015年各评价指标隶属于各等级的隶属度,综合权重后获得系列年水资源承载力综合评价结果。并将结果与密切值法的评级结果进行对比。评价结果显示:云模型和密切值法评价结果基本一致,说明云模型评价有较好的适用性和可信性。根据最大隶属度原则,宣城市2010~2015年水资源承载力均属于Ⅳ级,即良好承载,说明宣城市近年来水资源承载力比较稳定且维持在良好水平,仍有一定的开发利用潜力和承载潜力。宣城市丰富的水资源,较高的植被覆盖和绿化率及逐年提高的单方水产出效率(单位GDP用水量降低)都有利于承载力提高;但快速发展的城镇化、较大农田灌溉定额和居民人均用水量都给水资源承载力带来较大压力。本文运用云模型对宣城市水资源进行承载力评价研究,将评价等级的模糊性和随机性相结合,实现了定量、定性互相转换,使结果更加合理。以可持续发展为原则,设定相应限制条件,选取生活、工业、农业、第三产业和生态环境用水效益为多目标,建立基于多目标优化的宣城市水资源配置模型,通过调用Matlab优化工具箱中的fgoalattain函数对模型进行求解。通过不同决策倾向得到6种方案,并分析各用水部门的用水特点,为区域水资源利用效益最优化提供决策依据。
[Abstract]:The distribution of water resources in Anhui Province is uneven in time and space, the amount of water resources per capita is relatively small, the water pollution in local areas is serious, and the residents' awareness of saving water is weak and the utilization rate of recycled water is low. Water resources have become one of the bottleneck and key factors in the development of national economy. Taking Xuancheng as an example, this paper discusses and studies the carrying capacity and optimal allocation of water resources in Xuancheng, in order to provide reference for the sustainable development and utilization of local water resources. Based on the comprehensive planning of water resources in Xuancheng, the Bulletin of Water Resources and the Statistical Yearbook of Anhui Province, this paper selects 18 evaluation indexes from four aspects of water resources system, ecological environment system, social system and economic system according to the relevant principles. According to the evaluation grade and the experience of the related literature, the cloud model of each index is determined by trial calculation, and the evaluation model of water resources carrying capacity of Xuancheng city based on the cloud model is constructed. The combined weighting is accomplished by AHP method and entropy weight method. The membership degree of Xuancheng 2010 ~ 2015 evaluation index is obtained by using the forward cloud generator, and the comprehensive evaluation results of water resources carrying capacity are obtained after synthesizing the weight. The results are compared with the results of the close-value method. The evaluation results show that the cloud model is basically consistent with the close value method, which shows that the cloud model evaluation has good applicability and credibility. According to the principle of maximum degree of membership, the water resources carrying capacity of Xuancheng belongs to grade 鈪，

本文编号：1795456