液化气体铁路罐车泄漏事故发生规律及对运输安全影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-09 01:16

本文选题：危险货物 + 液化气体铁路罐车　；参考：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：现今国民经济高速发展,我国进入重化工时代,铁路危险货物的年运输量不断增长,实际运输中出现的危险货物种类、品名繁多、性质复杂,运输过程安全隐患复杂,对人身和财产均造成安全威胁。铁路危险货物运输中发生事故最多的是液化气体铁路罐车泄漏事故,因此,有必要对液化气体铁路罐车泄漏事故规律、事故机制以及安全影响因素进行研究,为实际运输的安全把控提供理论支持。本文主要研究内容如下:(1)对液化气体铁路罐车泄漏事故进行分类和事故致因分析,明确泄漏事故种类与致因机制;(2)搜集PHMSA和我国的液化气体铁路罐车相关的泄漏事故数据,利用数据挖掘软件SPSS Modeler 14.0对数据进行统计特征分析、事故因素的相关性分析,运用Apriori算法寻找泄漏事故内部关联规则;总结事故规律;(3)按AR和NAR两类事故,通过总结经验和事故树方法分析两类泄漏事故的安全影响因素。建立液化气体铁路罐车泄漏事故运输系统模型,利用马尔科夫方法对已知故障率的罐车运输系统进行可靠性分析;(4)采用KNN算法,在PHMSA泄漏事故案例库的基础上建立案例推理方法,为实际应用提供解决方案。研究表明,1月、7月和10月为液化气体铁路罐车泄漏事故高发期,需要提高警惕;大部分液化气体铁路罐车泄漏事故发生在运输途中,属于C、D类事故;需要重点注意的品名为液氯、液氨、液化石油气和丙烯.,在泄漏事故中故障最多的部件为阀件,其次为管道和附件,最常见的故障形式为组件或设备松动。泄漏事故可分为NAR和AR事故,前者安全影响因素与速度无关,主要为人为失误、质量问题、工况因素、热力辐射、外界冲击和其他因素,后者安全影响主要为速度。可利用系统稳态可用度和平均失效时间衡量各类泄漏事故发生的危险性,其中美国的液化气体铁路罐车综合系统的稳态可用度为0.01年,系统平均失效时间为0.02年。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the national economy and the age of heavy chemical industry in China, the annual transport volume of dangerous goods has been increasing. The types of dangerous goods in the actual transportation, various types of dangerous goods, complex properties, complex hidden dangers in the transportation process and the threat to the safety of people and property. The most accidents in the transportation of dangerous goods in railway are liquid. Therefore, it is necessary to study the law of leakage accident, the accident mechanism and the factors affecting the safety of the liquefied gas railway tanker, and provide theoretical support for the safety of the actual transportation. The main contents of this paper are as follows: (1) the classification of the leakage accidents of the tank car of the liquefied gas body and the cause of the accident caused by the liquefied gas are the main contents of the paper. Analysis, clear leakage accident types and cause mechanism; (2) collect PHMSA and China's liquefied gas railway tank car related leakage accident data, using data mining software SPSS Modeler 14 to analyze the statistical characteristics of the data, the correlation analysis of accident factors, using Apriori algorithm to find the leakage accident internal association rules; summarize the accident rules. Law; (3) according to the two kinds of accidents of AR and NAR, the safety factors of two kinds of leakage accidents are analyzed by summing up experience and accident tree method. The model of the transportation system for the leakage accident of the liquefied gas railway tank car is established, and the Markov method is used to analyze the reliability of the tanker transportation system with the known fault rate. (4) the KNN algorithm is used for the leakage accident of the PHMSA. On the basis of case base, case based reasoning method is established to provide a solution for practical application. The study shows that in January, July and October, it is necessary to be vigilant for the high incidence of liquefied gas railway tanker leakage accident. Most liquefied gas railway tanker leaks occurred in the way of transportation, belonging to C, D accidents. Chlorine, liquid ammonia, liquefied petroleum gas and propylene. The most malfunctioning components in the leakage accident are valve parts, followed by pipes and accessories. The most common forms of failure are components or equipment loosening. The leakage accident can be divided into NAR and AR accidents. The former is independent of the safety factors and speed, and the main factors are human error, quality, working conditions and thermal radiation. Outside impact and other factors, the latter is mainly the speed of safety. The stability availability of the system and the average failure time can be used to measure the risk of all kinds of leakage accidents. The steady-state availability of the United States liquefied gas railway tanker system is 0.01 years and the average failure time of the system is 0.02 years.

【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U298.3

【参考文献】