近60年来气候变化和人类活动对黄河、长江、珠江水沙通量影响的研究

发布时间：2018-05-14 05:26

  本文选题：三大流域 + 径流量　； 参考：《华东师范大学》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：河流通过向海输送陆源物质(如淡水、泥沙及其携带的营养物质)而影响河口、海岸及边缘海。河流入海水沙通量的变化会导致河口海岸带盐度、浊度和地貌过程等的变化,从而对海岸带功能产生影响。工业时期以来,特别是近几十年来,全球气候变化显著,流域人类活动日益增强。在气候变化和人类活动的双重影响下,世界上许多河流入海水沙通量发生急剧变化。然而,由于气候变化的地域差异以及流域开发程度的不同,不同河流水沙通量对气候变化和人类活动的响应呈现巨大差异。因此,开展不同流域(特别是大河流域)的相关对比研究十分必要。黄河、长江和珠江是我国最大的三条河流,也都是世界级大河(三流域合计占全球陆地总面积的约2%)。这三大流域位于典型的东亚季风气候区的不同纬度带,同时也是我国乃至世界上人类活动最强烈的地区之一。黄河、长江和珠江入海径流和泥沙是西太平洋沿岸最主要的淡水和泥沙来源之一。本研究以这三大流域为研究对象,基于年和月气温、降水量、径流量、输沙率系列数据,采用Mann-Kendall(?)参数趋势检验法,累计距平法,最大协方差分析法,克里金插值法以及线性回归分析等多种数学统计方法,分析1956年有同步系列资料以来我国三大流域的气温和降水量变化特征,以及气候变化和人类活动对三大河流径流量和输沙率的影响。主要结果和结论如下：(1)黄河、长江、珠江三大流域气温和降水量变化。1956-2013年三大流域平均温度显著上升,平均升温速率为0.22℃/10yr,与全球平均升温速率(0.21℃/10yr)相近。然而,三大流域内升温速率存在明显空间差异：升温速率变化范围为0.05-0.49℃/10yr,它随着纬度和高程的上升呈增大趋势,即高升温速率主要出现在高纬度地区的黄河流域和高海拔的长江的源头流域；此外,人口密集和工业发达的特大城市(例如上海)的升温速率较周边地区大。三大流域升温速率还表现出显著季节差异：升温速率夏季最小(0.14℃/10yr),冬季最大(0.29℃/10yr)。近60年来三大流域升温过程具有较显著的阶段性：以1987和1998年为转折呈梯级升温态势。1956年以来三大流域平均年降水量的变化趋势不显著,但三大流域内不同地域的降水量显示出不同的变化趋势：即中部(黄河的中下游流域,长江流域的中部地区以及珠江的西江流域)年降水量呈下降趋势,而西北(位于青藏高原的黄河和长江西部源头流域)、东南(长江下游及珠江的东江、北江流域)两翼年降水量呈上升趋势。气温和降水量变化的综合分析表明,近60年来三大流域的西北和东南区域呈现变暖变湿趋势,而中部区域有变暖变干趋势。此外,三大流域降水量具有显著的年际变化和一定的年代尺度阶段性趋势特征。(2)黄河、长江、珠江三大流域季节性气温和降水量与太平洋、印度洋海表温度(Sea Surface Temperature:SS T)的年际和年代际共变关系。三大流域各季节气温的年际变化与SST的El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)模式变化序列相关。夏季和秋季三大流域内大部分地区平均温度与SST的ENSO模式变化序列呈负相关,但春季和冬季平均温度变化与SST的ENSO模式变化序列正相关。三大流域各季节降水量的年际变化同样与SST的ENSO模式变化序列相关,但不同季节降水量对SST变化的局地响应不同。例如,SST的ENSO模式变化序列与三大流域东南区域的冬季降水量呈正相关,但与夏季黄河流域的降水量呈负相关。秋季SST的ENSO模式变化序列与长江干流北部流域降水呈负相关,但与长江干流南部流域降水正相关。与降水相比,季节性陆地气温对SST年际共变响应的空间一致性更显著。在年代际时间尺度上,三大流域季节性降水和气温与SST的Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation (QDO)模式变化序列更为相关。(3)黄河、长江、珠江三大河流径流量和输沙率变化。1956-2013年时段,黄河径流量呈显著下降趋势,珠江、长江径流量变化趋势均不显著；同期三大河流输沙率均呈显著下降趋势。三大河流的径流量和输沙率均具有明显的(但不一定同步的)阶段性变化。例如,1964-1997年黄河径流量和输沙率均呈显著下降趋势；1997-2013年黄河径流量呈显著上升趋势。1998-2011年长江径流量呈明显下降趋势,其它时段径流量变化趋势不明显；近60年长江输沙率的显著下降趋势主要开始于1984年。1956-1983年珠江径流量和输沙率均有上升趋势,而1994年后二者又呈显著下降趋势。(4)子域(subbasin)对黄河、长江、珠江径流量和输沙率贡献的变化。黄河水沙来源存在明显的区域性差异,且不同子域产流产沙率随时间变化十分显著。1956年以来大约69%的黄河水量来自上游兰州站以上流域,而中游流域产沙量约占整个流域的77%,并为整个流域贡献了大约31%的径流量。但1956年以来(特别是1985年以来)黄河中游流域产流和产沙率均呈显著下降趋势：例如,1956-1985年中游产沙量约占整个流域的86%,而1986年后降至大约68%。长江各子流域径流量和输沙率变化趋势十分复杂：1956年以来源头金沙江流域径流量呈上升趋势,但输沙率呈下降趋势；长江干流以北的岷江、嘉陵江和汉江三个子流域年径流量呈下降趋势(其中岷江径流量下降趋势达到显著水平),输沙率均呈显著下降趋势；干流以南的乌江、洞庭湖和鄱阳湖三子流域中只有乌江径流量呈下降趋势,而鄱阳湖和洞庭湖流域径流量均呈上升趋势,干流以南三子流域的输沙率均呈下降趋势。三峡工程运行前的1956-2002年大约65%的长江泥沙通量来自上游流域,而2003年三峡工程运行后大约67%的长江泥沙通量主要来自中下游流域的贡献(特别是对中游干流河床的侵蚀)。1956-2013年西江对珠江径流量和输沙率的贡献率分别高达大约77%和89%；近60年来西江、北江、东江年径流量变化趋势均不显著,但输沙率均呈下降趋势,其中西江和东江输沙率下降趋势达到显著水平。(5)气候变化和人类活动对黄河、长江、珠江水沙通量的影响。气候变化对三大河流径流量和输沙率的影响具有空间和时间差异：在空间上,降水量变化对相对干旱的黄河流域的水沙通量的影响较之对长江和珠江的影响更为明显；在时间上,气候变化对近60年时段的水沙通量影响不大,但对年代尺度水沙通量的阶段性变化可产生显著影响。例如,1975-1997年黄河径流量和输沙率下降大约20%归因于降水量的减少。1998-2011年长江径流量减少大约50%归因于降水量的减少,另外50%主要归因于人类活动,而输沙率的显著下降只有大约20%归因于降水减少。1956-1983年珠江径流量增加主要是降水量增加引起的,降水增加也是输沙率上升的一个重要原因；而1994-2013年珠江大约50%的径流量下降以及20%的输沙率下降可归因于同期降水量减少。而气温变化对三大流域水沙通量的影响目前很难进行量化。本文资料显示,与降水量变化相比,气温变化对三大流域水沙通量变化的贡献较小。降水量～径流量以及径流量～输沙率双累积曲线的分析表明,1956年以来三大河流的径流量和输沙率除了受到降水量影响外,还受到其它因素的影响(鉴于气温变化的影响很小,“其它因素”主要是指人类活动)。人类活动对黄河径流和输沙的影响以中游流域最为明显。虽然人类活动是长江和珠江年径流量年际变化的次要原因(主要原因是降水量变化),但它是造成三大河流输沙率显著下降的主要原因。人类活动对三大河流径流量和输沙率的影响随时间推移呈显著增加趋势。例如,人类活动导致的黄河输沙率下降比例在1960年代约为21%,而在2000年后达到89%。人类活动导致的长江输沙率下降始于1969年(因1968年底汉江上丹江口水库建成运行)；2010-2013年长江输沙率较气候决定理论值(指基于1968年以前的降水量～径流量和径流量～输沙率关系推算的输沙率)下降了约74%(反映人类活动的影响)。人类活动导致的珠江输沙率下降始于1990年代,2010-2013年珠江输沙率较理论值减少了大约66%。在各种人类活动中,水库建设是三大流域输沙率呈阶段性下降的主要原因。例如,1969-2013年汉江输沙率仅为丹江水库修建前的1956-1968年平均水平的14%。2000年二滩水库蓄水后金沙江输沙率较之前下降了约42%；2003年三峡水库蓄水后长江入海泥沙通量(2003-2013年平均143 Mt/yr)仅为1956-1968年平均水平(512 Mt/yr)的28%。1997年珠江西江干流天生桥水库以及2006年龙滩水库蓄水后(2007-2013年)西江输沙率仅为之前(1956-1996年)的23%(大约减少了55 Mt/yr)。流域土地利用强度的改变也对三大河流的水沙通量特别是输沙率产生了重要影响。例如,到1980s黄河流域水土保持措施才有效发挥作用,使黄河输沙率出现明显下降趋势。1980s以前,随着长江流域人口增加、耕种面积扩大,地表侵蚀加强,流域产沙率呈增加趋势,但之后随着“长治工程”(长江流域水土流失治理工程)的逐步实施,流域产沙率呈下降趋势。1980s前珠江流域大规模的毁林开荒使水土流失加剧超过水库蓄水的影响,因此输沙率较理论值偏大；但1990s后随着各级水库的运行和水土保持措施的实施,输沙率又下降了。此外,随着流域人口增加和社会经济发展,工农业用水需求也急剧增加,引水调水不断加强,因此流域耗水增多也对径流量产生了一定影响。例如,2012年黄河全流域地表水耗水量(地表水取水量扣除其回归到黄河干、支流河道后的水量)为32×109m3,甚至高于当年黄河的入海径流量(28×109m3)；同年珠江流域耗水量(36×109m3)约占珠江年径流量的13%；长江流域同年耗水量占长江年径流量的8%。但由于其它因素作用(如蒸发量减少、部分流域水土流失加重、地下水补充),使多种因素共同影响下的长江和珠江径流量大小仍表现为主要取决于流域降水量。人类活动还对三大河流年径流量和输沙率的季节性分配产生了重要影响。近年来三大河流径流和输沙的洪枯季差异明显缩小。例如,1986年龙羊峡水库和1999年小浪底水库蓄水后,黄河夏季径流量和输沙率急剧下降。1956-1959年(相对自然状态时期)黄河最大月(8月)与最小月(1月)径流量多年平均值比值为11：1,而2002-2013年(受到人类活动显著影响后)最大月(7月)与最小月(4月)径流量多年平均值比值为7：1；1956-1959年黄河最大月(8月)与最小月(1月)输沙率多年平均值比值为495：1,而2002年后最大月(7月)与最小月(2月)输沙率多年平均值比值仅为71：1。三峡水库蓄水前(1956-2002年)长江最大月(7月)与最小月(1月)输沙率多年平均值比值为42：1,而2003年后长江最大月(7月)与最小月(2月)输沙率多年平均值比值仅为11：1。1956-1979年(相对自然状态时期)珠江最大月(7月)与最小月(12月)输沙率多年平均值比值为109：1,而2006年龙滩水库蓄水后珠江最大月(6月)与最小月(2月)输沙率多年平均值比值为54：1。总体上,相比于长江和珠江,黄河水沙通量对气候变化或人类活动的影响更为敏感,反映黄河的脆弱性更高。这与黄河流域降水量较少、下垫面黄土发育等特点有关。此外,人类活动对研究区北部河流径流和输沙的影响程度较南部河流也更明显。
[Abstract]:Rivers can affect estuaries, coastal and marginal seas by transporting land sources (such as fresh water, sediment and their nutrients). Changes in water and sand fluxes from rivers to the sea lead to changes in salinity, turbidity, and geomorphic processes in the estuarine and coastal zones. The climate change and human activity are increasing. Under the dual influence of climate change and human activity, many rivers in the world have a sharp change in the amount of water and sand in the sea. However, the response of different rivers and rivers to climate change and human activity due to the regional difference of climate change and the difference of the development degree of the river basin There are great differences. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out a comparative study of different basins (especially the great river basins). The Yellow River, the Yangtze River and the Pearl River are the largest three rivers in our country, and are also the world-class rivers (the total of the three basins are about 2% of the total land area in the world). The three stream regions are located at different latitudes of the typical East Asian monsoon climate zones, It is also one of the most intense areas of human activity in China and in the world. The Yellow River, the Yangtze River and the Pearl River are one of the most important sources of fresh water and sediment in the Western Pacific coast. This study is based on the annual and monthly temperature, precipitation, runoff and sediment transport rate based on the three major basins, using Mann-Kendall (?) parameter trend test, cumulative anomaly method, maximum covariance analysis, Kriging interpolation and linear regression analysis, and other mathematical statistics, analysis of the changes in temperature and precipitation in the three major basins of China since 1956, as well as the change of air weather and human activities to the three river flow and sediment transport rate. The main results and conclusions are as follows: (1) the temperature and precipitation in the three major basins of the Yellow River, the Yangtze River and the Pearl River have increased significantly in the three large basins in.1956-2013, and the average heating rate is 0.22 /10yr, which is similar to the global average heating rate (0.21 C /10yr). However, there are obvious spatial differences in the temperature rising rate in the three big basins: heating up The range of rate variation is 0.05-0.49 C /10yr, which increases with the rise of latitude and elevation, that is, the rising temperature rate is mainly in the the Yellow River basin of high latitudes and the source basin of the high elevation of the Yangtze River; in addition, the heating rate of densely populated and industrial megacities (such as Shanghai) is larger than that in the surrounding area. The three big basins are more than those in the surrounding areas. The heating rate also showed significant seasonal differences: the heating rate was minimum in summer (0.14 /10yr) and the maximum in winter (0.29 /10yr). The warming process of the three big basins in the last 60 years had a significant stage characteristics: the turning of the 1987 and 1998 was a cascade rising trend, and the average annual precipitation of the three big basins since.1956 was not significant, but three The precipitation in different regions of the large basin shows a different trend of change: that is, the annual precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, the middle of the Yangtze River Basin and the Xijiang River Basin of the Pearl River is declining, while the Northwest (located in the the Yellow River of the Qinghai Tibet Plateau and the source basin in the west of the Yangtze River), and the Southeast (the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Pearl River, the North River) The annual precipitation on the two wings showed an upward trend. The comprehensive analysis of the changes in temperature and precipitation showed that the northwest and southeastern regions of the three big basins in the last 60 years showed a warming and wetting trend, while the central region had a warming and dry trend. In addition, the precipitation in the three large basins had significant annual changes and a certain trend characteristic of a certain age scale. (2 The interannual and interdecadal covariance relationship between the seasonal temperature and precipitation of the three big basins in the the Yellow River, the Yangtze River and the Pearl River and the India ocean sea surface temperature (Sea Surface Temperature:SS T). The interannual variation of the temperature in each season of the three big basins is related to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) model variation sequence of SST. In the summer and autumn, the three major basins in the autumn are in the middle. The average temperature in most areas is negatively correlated with the ENSO pattern variation sequence of SST, but the change of the average temperature in spring and winter is positively related to the ENSO model variation sequence of SST. The interannual variation of the precipitation in the three large basins is also related to the ENSO model variation sequence of SST, but the local response of the different seasonal precipitation to the SST changes is different. For example, the ENSO pattern change sequence of SST is positively correlated with the winter precipitation in the southeast region of the three major basins, but negatively related to the precipitation in the the Yellow River basin in summer. The ENSO model variation sequence of the autumn SST is negatively correlated with the precipitation in the northern watershed of the Yangtze River, but it is positively related to the precipitation in the southern watershed of the Yangtze River. The spatial consistency of the interannual covariant response of SST is more significant. On the interdecadal time scale, the seasonal precipitation and temperature of the three large basins are more related to the Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation (QDO) model variation sequence of SST. (3) the runoff volume and sediment transport rate of the three rivers in the Yellow River, the Yangtze River and the Pearl River change in the.1956-2013 year period, and the runoff of the three rivers in the Yangtze River The trend of the runoff in the Pearl River and the Yangtze River is not significant, and the sediment transport rate of the three rivers in the same period has a significant downward trend. The runoff and sediment transport rate of the three rivers have obvious (but not necessarily synchronous) stage changes. For example, the runoff and sediment transport rate in the 1964-1997 years of the Yellow River both have a significant downward trend; 1997-2013 years. The runoff of the Yellow River has a significant upward trend in.1998-2011 years, and the runoff of the Yangtze River shows a significant downward trend. The trend of the runoff in other periods is not obvious. The significant decline trend of the sediment transport rate in the last 60 years is mainly in the Pearl River Runoff and sediment transport rate in the year.1956-1983 in 1984, while the two after 1994 showed a significant downward trend. (4) changes in the contribution of Zi Yu (subbasin) to the Yellow River, the Yangtze River, the Pearl River Runoff and the sediment transport rate. There are obvious regional differences in the source of water and sediment in the Yellow River, and the different Zi Yu yield and sediment rates vary with time. The amount of water in the Yellow River is about 69% from the upper reaches of the LanZhou Railway Station, and the sediment yield in the middle reaches of the whole stream is about the whole stream. 77% of the region has contributed about 31% of the runoff to the whole river basin, but the rate of runoff and sediment yield in the middle reaches of the Yellow River since 1956 (especially since 1985) has decreased significantly: for example, the sediment yield in the middle reaches of the 1956-1985 year is about 86% of the whole River Basin, and the runoff and sediment transport rate in the Yangtze River Basin of about 68%. after 1986 has decreased. The trend is very complicated: since 1956, the runoff of the Jinsha River basin is on the rise, but the rate of sediment transport is declining. The annual runoff of the three sub basins in the north of the Yangtze River, the Jialing River and the Hanjiang River shows a downward trend (in which the decrease trend of the Minjiang River Runoff reaches a significant level), the sediment transport rate has a significant downward trend, and the main stream is south. In the three sub basins of Wujiang, Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake, only the runoff of Wujiang is declining, while the runoff of Poyang Lake and Dongting Lake is on the rise, and the sediment transport rate of the three sub basins in the south of the main stream is decreasing. The sediment flux of the Yangtze River in the 1956-2002 year of the Three Gorges project comes from the upstream river basin, and the Three Gorges of the Three Gorges in 2003. About 67% of the Yangtze River sediment flux mainly comes from the contribution of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River after the project operation (especially the erosion of the middle stream river bed). The contribution rate of the Xijiang River to the Pearl River Runoff and sediment transport rate is up to 77% and 89% respectively in.1956-2013. The Annual Runoff Trend of the West River, the North River and the Dongjiang River is not significant in the last 60 years, but the sediment transport rate is all present The decline trend is significant. (5) the influence of climate change and human activity on the water and sediment flux of the Yellow River, Yangtze River and Pearl River. The effect of climate change on the flow and sediment rate of three rivers has spatial and temporal differences: in space, the change of precipitation to the relatively arid the Yellow River Basin The effect of water and sediment flux is more obvious than that on the Yangtze River and the Pearl River; in time, the impact of climate change on the water and sediment flux in the last 60 years is not significant, but it has a significant influence on the phased changes of the water and sediment flux in the age scale. For example, the decrease of the Yellow River's runoff and sediment transport rate in 1975-1997 years is about 20% due to the decrease of.1 The decrease of the runoff of the Yangtze River by about 50% in the past 998-2011 years is attributable to the decrease of precipitation, and the other 50% mainly attributable to human activities. The significant decrease in sediment transport rate is only about 20% attributable to the decrease of precipitation in.1956-1983. The increase of the Pearl River runoff is mainly caused by the increase of precipitation, and the increase of precipitation is also an important reason for the increase of sediment transport rate; and 19 The decrease of about 50% of the Pearl River in 94-2013 years and the decrease of 20% of the sediment transport rate can be attributed to the decrease of the precipitation in the same period. The influence of the temperature change on the water and sediment flux of the three large basins is difficult to quantify. The analysis of the double cumulative curve of runoff and runoff and sediment transport rate shows that the runoff and sediment transport rate of the three rivers have been influenced by other factors in addition to the amount of precipitation since 1956. (in view of the small influence of temperature change, the other factors "mainly refers to human activities). The effect of human activities on runoff and sediment transport in the Yellow River Although the human activity is the secondary cause of annual variation in the annual runoff of the Yangtze River and the Pearl River (mainly due to the change of precipitation), it is the main cause of the significant decrease in the sediment transport rate of the three rivers. The influence of human activity on the flow rate and sediment transport rate of the three rivers is significantly increased with time. For example, the decline ratio of the Yellow River's sediment transport rate caused by human activities was about 21% in 1960s, and the decline of the Yangtze River sediment transport rate caused by 89%. human activities in 2000 began in 1969 (due to the completion of the Danjiangkou reservoir on the Han River on the Hanjiang River at the end of 1968); the 2010-2013 year sediment rate of the Yangtze River determined the theoretical value (based on the precipitation before 1968). The calculated sediment transport rate decreased by about 74% (reflecting the influence of human activity). The decline of the Pearl River transport rate caused by human activities began in 1990s, and the Pearl River transport rate in the 2010-2013 year was reduced by about 66%. in all kinds of human activities, and the construction of the reservoir is a stage of sediment transport in the three major basins. For example, in the 1969-2013 year, the rate of sediment transport in the Han River in 1969-2013 years was only 42% after the storage of the two beach reservoir at the average level of 1956-1968 years before the construction of the Danjiang Reservoir in 14%.2000, and the sediment flux of the Yangtze River to the sea (2003-2013 year average 143 Mt/yr) was only 1956-1968 years average after the water storage of the Three Gorges Reservoir in 2003. 512 Mt/yr) in 28%.1997, the sediment transport rate of the Xijiang River, the main stream of the Pearl River in the Pearl River and the Longtan Reservoir in 2006 (2007-2013 years), is only 23% (about 55 Mt/yr) of the previous (1956-1996 years). The change of the land use intensity of the river basin also has an important effect on the water sand flow rate, especially the sediment transport rate of the three major rivers. For example, to 1980s The measures of soil and water conservation in the the Yellow River basin have played an effective role, and before the obvious downward trend of the sediment transport rate in the Yellow River is.1980s, with the increase of the population of the Yangtze River Basin, the area of cultivated land is enlarged, the erosion of the surface is strengthened and the sediment yield in the river basin is increasing, but after the gradual implementation of the "Changzhi project" (the water and soil erosion control project of the Yangtze River Basin), the flow of soil and water is gradually carried out. The rate of sand production in the region shows a downward trend of.1980s before the large scale of deforestation in the Pearl River Basin, which makes the soil erosion aggravate the influence of the reservoir water storage, so the rate of sediment transport is larger than that of the theoretical value. But after the implementation of the operation of the reservoirs at all levels and the implementation of the soil and water conservation measures, the rate of sediment transport has declined again. The demand for water use in industry and agriculture has also increased rapidly, and the water diversion of water diversion has been strengthened continuously. Therefore, the increase of water consumption in the basin also has a certain effect on the runoff. For example, in 2012, the water consumption of the surface water of the whole basin of the Yellow River (the surface water quantity of the surface water is deducted to the the Yellow River dry, the water amount after the tributary channel) is 32 x 109m3, even higher than the runoff from the Yellow River in the same year. Volume (28 * 109m3); in the same year, the Pearl River Basin water consumption (36 * 109m3) accounted for 13% of the annual runoff of the Pearl River; the Yangtze River Basin consumed the same amount of water in the same year as the Yangtze River.

【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：P467;TV143
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本文编号：1886555