我国人口红利的嬗变及其对经济增长方式的影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-15 04:29

本文选题：人口红利 + 抚养比　；参考：《广西大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,随着社会主义市场经济的迅速发展,中国经济迅速增长,已成为世界经济发展速度最快的国家之一。与此同时,我国人口的剧烈增长对社会带来了诸多改变,例如由人口增长所带来的人口红利的变化,以及人口红利的变化使得经济增长的方式进一步发生转变。如何有效的把握这种转变成为了关键。人口红利问题包含着较为丰富的内容,像人口数量红利、人口结构红利以及人口质量红利,其对于经济增长有着各自不同的贡献和影响。本文基于国内外对人口经济学分析的角度,对于改革开放以来,我国人口红利的嬗变以及其对经济增长方式的影响进行分析。本文运用一定计量与统计方法像Holt-Winters、lasso对于数据进行处理,分别从简单观察与数据验证两个角度考察人口红利的嬗变,并按阶段归纳总结其规律与特点;同时从产业增速变迁、技术进步变革以及劳动生产率变化三个角度考察人口红利嬗变对于经济增长方式的影响。发现我国的各项人口红利变化趋势具有轮动效应,其中:第一阶段,人口因素主要依靠人口数量的增长,经济主要依靠劳动要素粗放投入进行拉动;第二阶段,人口红利主要依靠城乡劳动力的流动以及微弱的人口抚养比的下降,劳动生产率、人均产出小幅提升,经济开始向着集约化转变;第三阶段人口抚养比达到低谷对经济贡献达到顶峰,同时结构红利趋缓,由教育累积而带来的质量红利逐渐扩大并出现蓬勃发展的趋势,高新技术产业飞速增长。同时在不同时期伴随着人口红利的不同经济增长的方式也随之发生着相应的变化。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, with the rapid development of the socialist market economy, China's economy has grown rapidly and has become one of the fastest developing countries in the world. At the same time, the rapid growth of population in our country has brought many changes to the society, such as the change of the demographic dividend brought by the population growth, and the change of the demographic dividend, which makes the mode of economic growth change further. How to effectively grasp this change has become the key. The problem of population dividend contains rich contents, such as the dividend of population quantity, the dividend of population structure and the dividend of population quality, which have different contribution and influence to economic growth. Based on the analysis of population economics at home and abroad, this paper analyzes the evolution of demographic dividend and its influence on economic growth since the reform and opening up. This paper uses certain metrological and statistical methods such as Holt-Winterslasso to deal with the data, examines the evolution of demographic dividend from two angles of simple observation and data verification, and sums up its laws and characteristics according to the stages, at the same time, the change of industrial growth rate. The impact of demographic dividend evolution on economic growth is investigated from the perspectives of technological change and labor productivity change. It is found that the trend of demographic dividend changes in China has a rotational effect. In the first stage, the population factor mainly depends on the growth of the population, the economy mainly depends on the extensive input of labor factors to pull; the second stage, The demographic dividend mainly depends on the flow of urban and rural labor force and the decline of the population dependency ratio, labor productivity and output per capita increase slightly, and the economy begins to turn to intensive. In the third stage, the population dependency ratio reached a low point and reached the peak of economic contribution, while the structural dividend slowed down, the quality dividend brought by the accumulation of education gradually expanded and appeared the trend of vigorous development, and the high and new technology industry grew rapidly. At the same time, the different ways of economic growth accompanied by the demographic dividend have changed accordingly in different periods.
【学位授予单位】：广西大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：C924.2;F124.1

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