基于ELES模型与统计方法的城镇居民消费结构实证分析

发布时间：2018-05-16 22:25

  本文选题：居民消费结构 + ELES模型　； 参考：《云南大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着国民经济的持续稳定增长,中国经济进入新常态已成为不争的事实,居民消费结构也发生了巨大的改变。居民消费结构的变化在很大程度上能够显示居民主要购买力的方向,更进一步地显示在不同经济水平和社会发展阶段上的产业、产品结构,从而直接影响社会经济活动。但现如今,市场上存在一系列的问题,如消费品供过于求、市场有效供给率不足、产能过剩等,社会经济面临的市场制约日益增强。因此,研究当前居民消费结构的现状和变化趋势,不仅有助于掌握居民消费需求的热点和新方向,也利于产业结构和产品结构的调整升级,进而推动国民经济的快速平稳增长。本文针对《2015年中国统计年鉴》中1993-2014年的城镇居民消费结构数据,利用ELES模型对纵向时间序列数据和城镇的横截面数据进行数量实证分析。为了全面刻画城镇居民的消费结构特征,本文还考虑了横截面数据的主成分分析和聚类分析,从而了解不同地区消费结构的大致差异。而后,在实证分析的基础上,给出相应的对策建议。研究结果表明,城镇居民消费结构已经由生存型转向享受服务型,尽管居民消费的主要方向仍为食品消费,但对交通通信和居住的边际消费倾向越来越高；各省份城镇居民的消费结构虽然大致相同,但不同省份的消费结构存在地区差异。
[Abstract]:With the sustained and steady growth of the national economy, it has become an indisputable fact that China's economy has entered the new normal, and the consumption structure of the residents has also undergone tremendous changes. To a great extent, the change of the consumption structure of residents can show the direction of the main purchasing power of the residents, and further show the industrial and product structure in different economic levels and stages of social development, thus directly affecting the social and economic activities. But nowadays, there are a series of problems in the market, such as oversupply of consumer goods, insufficient effective supply rate of market, overcapacity and so on. Therefore, studying the current situation and changing trend of resident's consumption structure is not only helpful to grasp the hot spot and new direction of resident's consumption demand, but also conducive to the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure and product structure, thus promoting the rapid and steady growth of national economy. Based on the consumption structure data of urban residents in the Statistical Yearbook of China in 2015 from 1993 to 2014, this paper makes a quantitative empirical analysis of the longitudinal time series data and the cross-sectional data of cities and towns by using ELES model. In order to describe the characteristics of the consumption structure of urban residents, this paper also considers the principal component analysis and cluster analysis of cross-section data, so as to understand the difference of consumption structure in different regions. Then, on the basis of empirical analysis, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are given. The results show that the consumption structure of urban residents has changed from survival type to enjoying service type. Although the main direction of residents' consumption is still food consumption, the marginal consumption tendency to traffic communication and residence is becoming higher and higher. Although the consumption structure of urban residents in different provinces is roughly the same, there are regional differences in consumption structure among different provinces.
【学位授予单位】：云南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F126.1
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本文编号：1898683