湖南省城乡居民消费与经济增长的关系研究

发布时间：2018-05-17 01:42

本文选题：城乡居民消费 + 经济增长　；参考：《南华大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：根据世界银行和国际货币基金组织的统计,发达国家的最终消费率在80%左右,发展中国家一般在70%以上。1992—2013年,我国最终消费率整体呈现下降趋势,由1992年的62.4%下降至2013年的49.8%,可见我国存在消费率偏低的问题。湖南省最终消费率从2010年开始低于全国最终消费率,因此,湖南省也存在消费率偏低的问题。城乡户籍制度严格限制农村人口向城市流动,是两种不同的资源配置制度,它将湖南省居民分为城镇居民和农村居民两个特征不同的群体。文章对湖南省居民消费与经济增长的关系研究分为城乡两个部分来探讨,以期为湖南省扩大城乡居民消费,拉动经济增长提供一些政策建议。文章首先对湖南省城乡居民消费和经济增长的特征进行分析,其次从城乡居民消费结构和总量两方面研究居民消费与经济增长的关系,先基于向量自回归模型对湖南省城乡居民消费结构与经济增长的关系进行实证分析,再利用结构向量自回归模型对湖南省城乡居民消费总量与经济增长的关系进行实证研究,结果表明,湖南省城乡居民消费结构与经济增长的关系表现为:农村居民消费结构变动对经济增长的影响强于城镇居民消费结构变动对经济增长的影响,经济增长对农村居民消费结构变动的影响强于经济增长对城镇居民消费结构变动的影响。湖南省城乡居民消费总量与经济增长的关系表现为:城镇居民消费总量变动对经济增长的影响强于农村居民消费总量变动对经济增长的影响,经济增长对农村居民消费总量的影响强于经济增长对城镇居民消费总量的影响。在此基础上,结合湖南省实际情况提出相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:According to the statistics of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, the final consumption rate of developed countries is about 80 percent, and that of developing countries is generally more than 70 percent. From 62.4% in 1992 to 49.8% in 2013, we can see the problem of low consumption rate in China. The final consumption rate of Hunan Province has been lower than the national final consumption rate since 2010, so Hunan Province also has the problem of low consumption rate. The urban-rural household registration system strictly restricts the rural population from moving to the city. It is two different resource allocation systems. It divides the residents of Hunan Province into two groups with different characteristics: the urban residents and the rural residents. This paper discusses the relationship between resident consumption and economic growth in Hunan Province, which is divided into two parts: urban and rural areas, in order to provide some policy suggestions for Hunan Province to expand the consumption of urban and rural residents and stimulate economic growth. This paper first analyzes the characteristics of urban and rural residents' consumption and economic growth in Hunan Province, and then studies the relationship between residents' consumption and economic growth from two aspects: the consumption structure and the total amount of urban and rural residents. Firstly, based on the vector autoregressive model, the relationship between the consumption structure of urban and rural residents and economic growth in Hunan Province is empirically analyzed, and then the relationship between the total consumption of urban and rural residents and economic growth in Hunan Province is studied by using the structural vector autoregressive model. The results show that the relationship between the consumption structure of urban and rural residents in Hunan Province and economic growth is as follows: the influence of the change of consumption structure of rural residents on economic growth is stronger than that of the change of consumption structure of urban residents on economic growth. The influence of economic growth on the change of consumption structure of rural residents is stronger than that of economic growth on the change of consumption structure of urban residents. The relationship between the total consumption of urban and rural residents and economic growth in Hunan Province is as follows: the impact of the change of total consumption of urban and rural residents on economic growth is stronger than that of the total consumption of rural residents on economic growth. The influence of economic growth on the total consumption of rural residents is stronger than that of economic growth on the total consumption of urban residents. On this basis, combined with the actual situation in Hunan Province to put forward relevant policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：南华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F124.1;F126.1

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