内蒙古信贷投放与产业结构关系研究

发布时间：2018-05-18 17:35

本文选题：信贷投放 + 产业结构　；参考：《内蒙古财经大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：在参阅有关文献的过程中发现,大多数学者或是从金融发展与经济增长的关系进行研究,或是以金融中介为视点研究金融中介与产业结构之间的关系,而对于金融域的信贷投放与产业结构之间的研究却是很少。因此为了深入研究金融领域中的信贷资金和产业结构之间的关系,有必要将其作为一个独立的研究方向,了解信贷资金的使用情况,产业结构的发展状况,以及二者究竟有什么样的内在关联性,这对制定合理的金融策略和优化的产业结构很重要。在研究信贷投放与产业结构之间的具体关系之前,我们先对二者在理论方面的作用机理进行了详细的研究,之后采用描述性和统计性的分析方法,通过数据图表对内蒙古信贷投放总量情况、信贷投放期限情况和信贷投放产业结构进行了详细分析,也通过类似方法就内蒙古产业结构中的第一产业、第二产业和第三产业的发展情况进行了描述性和统计性分析。在理论和实际分析的前提下,本文采用1984—2013年内蒙古统计年鉴以及内蒙古统计局的相关数据,对被解释变量即:第一产业、第二产业、第三产业与内蒙古生产总值的比值,解释变量即:银行的实际贷款总额、银行的存贷比,进行了单位根检验;并且在上述指标全部一阶单整的基础上,对内蒙古三大产业与信贷规模和存贷比之间进行了协整检验,检验相关指标之间是否存在长期稳定的均衡关系;格兰杰因果检验,检验存在长期稳定均衡关系的指标之间,究竟谁是因,谁是果。通过检测银行信贷规模、存贷比和三大产业产值的实证结果得出如下结论:首先,第一产业产值在内蒙古生产总值中所占的比例与信贷规模和存贷比指标呈现协整关系,信贷规模和存贷比与第一产业产值占内蒙古生产总值中所占的比例呈正相关,即信贷规模和存贷比增加,第一产业产值也增加;其次,第二产业产值在内蒙古生产总值中所占的比例与信贷规模和存贷比指标也呈现协整关系,但是,信贷规模与第二产业产值呈负相关,存贷比与第二产业产值呈正相关,即存贷比的增加拉动了第二产业产值的增加,而信贷规模的增加没有拉动第二产业产值的增长。第三,由于信贷规模的系数没有通过10%显著性水平下的t检验,因此,第三产业与信贷规模和存贷比不存在协整关系。之后,对存在协整关系的变量进行了格兰杰因果检验。最后,通过实证分析结果和信贷投放与产业结构中所反映的问题提出了相应解决对策。本文的最终目的就是希望通过研究内蒙古信贷投放与产业结构的现状、存在的问题、通过实证结果的实证检验,提出切实有效的解决对策,发挥信贷的支持推动作用,更好的完善内蒙古的产业结构。
[Abstract]:In the process of referring to the relevant literature, it is found that most scholars have studied the relationship between financial development and economic growth, or study the relationship between financial intermediaries and industrial structures with financial intermediaries, while the research on credit investment and industrial structure in the financial domain is very few. The relationship between credit funds and industrial structure in the field is necessary. It is necessary to take it as an independent research direction, to understand the use of credit funds, the development of the industrial structure, and what kind of internal relations between the two, which is very important to the formulation of a reasonable financial strategy and the optimization of the industrial structure. Prior to the specific relationship between the investment and the industrial structure, we first made a detailed study of the theoretical role of the two, followed by a descriptive and statistical analysis method, and a detailed analysis of the total amount of credit delivery in Inner Mongolia, the condition of the term of credit delivery and the industrial structure of credit delivery through the data chart. Through a similar method, the development of the first industry, the second industry and the third industry in the industrial structure of Inner Mongolia is described and statistically analyzed. On the premise of the theoretical and practical analysis, the article adopts the statistical yearbook of Inner Mongolia from 1984 to 2013 and the relevant data of the Inner Mongolia statistics Bureau, which is the first production, that is, the first production. The ratio of the second industry, the second industry and the third industry to the GDP, the explanatory variables are the total bank loan total, the bank's loan ratio, the unit root test, and on the basis of all the first order of the above indexes, the cointegration test is carried out between the three industries of Inner Mongolia and the credit regulations and the loan ratio. Whether there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the standards; Grainger causality test, testing the existence of long-term stability and equilibrium relationship between the indicators, who is the cause, and the empirical results of the bank credit scale, the deposit and loan ratio and the three major industrial output value: first, the output value of the first industry is in Inner Mongolia's gross product. The proportion of the account is cointegration with the scale of credit and the ratio of loan to loan ratio. The scale of credit and the ratio of loan to loan are positively related to the proportion of the output value of the first industry in the total value of Inner Mongolia's production, that is, the increase of credit scale and the loan ratio and the increase in the output value of the first industry; secondly, the proportion of the output value of the second industry in the gross product of Inner Mongolia Loan scale and loan ratio index also show co integration relationship. However, the credit scale is negatively related to the output value of the second industry, and the loan ratio is positively related to the output value of the second industry. That is, the increase in the ratio of deposit and loan increases the increase of the output value of the second industry, and the increase of credit scale does not stimulate the growth of the output value of the second industry. Third, due to the credit scale of the system. The number does not pass the t test under the 10% significant level, so the third industry does not have a cointegration relationship with the credit scale and the loan ratio. Then, the Grainger causality test is carried out on the variables of the cointegration relationship. Finally, the corresponding solutions are put forward by the results of the empirical analysis and the problems reflected in the credit and industrial structure. The ultimate goal is to hope that through the study of the current situation of Inner Mongolia credit and industrial structure, the existing problems, through the empirical test of empirical results, put forward effective and effective solutions, play the role of credit support, and better improve the industrial structure of Inner Mongolia.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F121.3;F832.4

【相似文献】