我国运输仓储行业上市公司财务预警问题研究

发布时间：2018-05-19 22:21

本文选题：运输仓储业 + 财务预警　；参考：《天津工业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国市场经济的不断完善和发展,以及经济全球化对我国的影响力日益增强,企业所面临的环境更加复杂多变,这使得企业在生存发展的过程中需要面对更大的财务危机。如果这些危机未得到及时有效的控制,将会对企业的生存造成严重的威胁和破坏。运输仓储业是我国国民经济支柱产业,其关联度高,带动性强,对国民经济发展有着巨大的影响。因此,建立一个有效的财务预警模型对我国运输仓储业的财务状况进行跟踪评价,发现问题并及时采取有效地的控制措施,具有重大意义。首先,本文介绍了研究的背景、意义,通过借鉴国内外学者在财务预警方面的研究成果,确立本文的研究方法和创新之处。接着阐述了财务危机的涵义,并对我国财务危机的公司进行了界定,本文以"营运净现金流量/流动负债"这个指标连续两年小于我国全部A股公司该指标近五年平均值的标准来定义财务危机公司。然后介绍了财务预警的涵义及其理论基础,对现有的几种财务预警模型进行了比较分析,总结出几种常用财务预警模型的优缺点,在此基础上,选取Logistic回归模型作为本文的财务预警模型。其次,在分析了我国运输仓储业的现状和引发财务危机的因素后,选取了2010-2015年沪深两市的70家运输仓储行业上市公司为研究对象,其中54家为建模样本,剩余16家为检验样本,同时根据运输仓储行业的特点,选取29个财务指标。借助统计软件SPSS19.0,运用单样本K-S检验、两个独立样本的曼-惠特尼U检验进行对财务指标的筛选,用因子分析和Logistic回归分析建立我国运输仓储业财务预警模型,并对模型进行了检验。最后,对本文研究和模型的结果进行了总结,为我国运输仓储行业提出了财务危机控制的措施。同时,还分析了本文研究的不足之处,提出了后续研究的建议。
[Abstract]:With the continuous improvement and development of our country's market economy, and the increasing influence of economic globalization on our country, the environment faced by enterprises is more complex and changeable, which makes enterprises need to face greater financial crisis in the process of survival and development. If these crises are not controlled in time and effectively, the survival of enterprises will be seriously threatened and destroyed. Transportation and warehousing industry is a pillar industry of national economy in our country, which has a great influence on the development of national economy. Therefore, it is of great significance to establish an effective financial early warning model to track and evaluate the financial situation of China's transportation and warehousing industry, to find out the problems and to take effective control measures in time. Firstly, this paper introduces the background and significance of the research, and establishes the research methods and innovations of this paper by referring to the research results of domestic and foreign scholars in financial early warning. Then it explains the meaning of financial crisis, and defines the company of financial crisis in our country. This paper defines a financial crisis company by the standard of "net operating cash flow / current liability", which is less than the average of nearly five years for all A-share companies in China for two consecutive years. Then it introduces the meaning and theoretical basis of financial early warning, compares and analyzes several existing financial early warning models, summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of several commonly used financial early warning models, and on this basis, Logistic regression model is chosen as the financial early warning model of this paper. Secondly, after analyzing the current situation of transport warehousing industry and the factors causing financial crisis, 70 listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2010 to 2015 are selected as the research objects, 54 of them are modeling samples, and the remaining 16 are test samples. At the same time, according to the characteristics of transport warehousing industry, select 29 financial indicators. With the help of SPSS 19.0, single-sample K-S test, two independent samples of Man-Whitney U test, the financial index is screened, and the financial early-warning model of transportation and warehousing industry in China is established by factor analysis and Logistic regression analysis. The model is tested. Finally, the results of this study and model are summarized, and the financial crisis control measures are put forward for China's transportation and warehousing industry. At the same time, the shortcomings of this study are analyzed, and suggestions for further research are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：天津工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F512.5

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