计量经济学模型在卫生资源研究中的应用

发布时间：2018-05-22 07:22

本文选题：计量经济学模型 + 卫生资源　；参考：《天津医科大学》2004年硕士论文

【摘要】：目的卫生资源配置问题一直是世界各国卫生界的热门话题，如何做好微观调整与宏观调控、使卫生事业发展与国民经济相协调，实现卫生服务的总供求基本平衡，也是我国卫生界一直致力研究的方向。本次研究旨在通过运用计量经济学模型(包括时间序列模型和经典计量经济学模型)对我国和天津市卫生资源的人、财、物三方面进行预测，并通过结构分析，进一步了解我国卫生资源发展与我国人口、国内生产总值(GDP)发展的关系，来探讨计量经济学模型在卫生资源相关研究中的应用。方法第一部分：收集了1980-2000年全国医院、卫生院卫生技术人员数、床位数、卫生事业经费数进行分析，首先采用时间序列模型中应用范围很广泛的求和自回归移动平均模型即ARIMA(p，d，q)模型对该人、财、物三方面进行预测。然后建立起该三方面与人口、GDP发展关系的经典计量经济学方程，，利用该方程进行预测、比较静力学分析和弹性分析。第二部分：收集了天津市1980-2000年全国医院、卫生院卫生技术人员数、床位数、卫生事业经费运用计量经济学模型分别对其进行了预测和结构分析。并且利用2001、2002年收集的数据分别对全国和天津市卫生资源三方面进行了样本期外预测。结果运用ARIMA模型对全国医院、卫生院卫生技术人员数、床位数、卫生事业经费数进行预测，其平均相对误差分别为0.0053、0.0046、0.0412。利用经典计量经济学方程进行预测，平均相对误差分别为0.019、0.012、0.015。ARIMA模型对天津市医院、卫生院卫生技术人员数、床位数、卫生事业经费数进行预测，其平均相对误差分别为0.014、0.014、0.029。经典计量经济学方程预测，平均相对误差分别为0.020、0.022、0.010。天津医科大学硕士学位论文利用计量经济学方程进行卫生事业经费相对于GDP发展的弹性分析，其弹性系数分别为0.24、0.46。对2001年、2002年全国和天津市的医院、卫生院卫生技术人员数、床位数进行样本期外预测。ARIMA模型预测2001年全国医院、卫生院卫生技术人员数、床位数相对误差分别为0.034、0.012，2002年相对误差分别为0.067、 0.031。经典计量经济学模型预测2001年相对误差分别为0.013、0.029。ARIMA 模型预测2001年天津市医院、卫生院卫生技术人员数、床位数相对误差分别为0.015、0.024，2002年相对误差分别为0.043、0.004。经典计量经济学模型预测2001年相对误差分别为0.094、0.001。2002年相对误差分别为 0.046、0.024。结论在本次研究中利用计量经济学模型中两个有代表性的ARIMA模型和经典计量经济学方程模型对卫生资源的人、财、物三方面进行了预测，均取得了较满意的结果。并利用建立起的计量经济学方程进行了结构分析，由弹性系数表明，天津卫生事业经费相对于GDP的弹性变化高于全国总体水平。综上所述，计量经济学模型在卫生资源的研究，尤其在卫生资源发展的预测和与社会人口、经济发展的关系研究中发挥了明显的优势。在本次研究中，时间序列方法在卫生资源研究的预测中显示了较好的精度，建立起的经典计量经济方程利用岭回归方法对卫生资源的预测也取得了较满意的结果，且通过该方程可了解我国卫生资源与社会人口、经济发展的关系，可以通过对该关系的了解，指导我国卫生资源的发展方向，为实现卫生资源与社会的协调发展提供方法上的指导。
[Abstract]:Objective health resources allocation problem has always been a hot topic in the world health community. How to adjust the micro adjustment and macro control to coordinate the development of health services with the national economy and realize the basic balance of the total supply and demand of health services is also the direction of our health community. This study aims to use econometrics. The model (including time series model and classic econometric model) is used to predict three aspects of human, financial and material resources in China and Tianjin city. Through structural analysis, we can further understand the relationship between the development of health resources and the development of China's population and GDP, and discuss the model of econometrics in health resources. The application in the study.
Method first part: collect 1980-2000 years national hospital, health hospital health personnel number, bed number, health fund number analysis, first use the time series model of a very wide range of application range and autoregressive moving average model ARIMA (P, D, q) model of the person, money, material, three aspects of the prediction. The classical econometric equations of the three aspects and the relationship between population and GDP development are predicted by this equation, and the static analysis and elastic analysis are compared.
The second part: the 1980-2000 year National Hospital of Tianjin was collected. The number of health personnel, the number of health workers, the bed number, and the econometrics model were predicted and analyzed.
And using the data collected over the past 20012002 years, we conducted an out of sample forecast for three aspects of health resources in the whole country and Tianjin.
Results the ARIMA model was used to predict the number of health technicians, the number of health workers, the number of beds and the number of health services. The average relative error was 0.0053,0.0046,0.0412. using the classical econometric equation, and the average relative error was 0.019,0.012,0.015.ARIMA model to the hospital of Tianjin and the hospital. The number of health technicians, the number of beds and the number of health undertakings were predicted. The average relative error was predicted by the classical econometric equation of 0.014,0.014,0.029., and the average relative error was 0.020,0.022,0.010., respectively.
Master's degree thesis of Medical University Of Tianjin
Using the econometrics equation to analyze the elasticity of health funding relative to GDP development and its elasticity.
The coefficients are 0.24,0.46.
For hospitals in 2001 and 2002, the number of health technicians in hospitals and hospitals in Tianjin and China
The.ARIMA model was used to predict the health technology of national hospitals and health centers in 2001.
The relative error of number of beds and number of beds was 0.034,0.0122002, respectively, and the relative error was 0.067.
0.031. the classical econometric model predicts that the relative error in 2001 is 0.013,0.029.ARIMA
The model predicts the relative error of the number of health technicians and the number of beds in Tianjin hospital, 2001.
For 0.015,0.0242002, the relative error is 0.043,0.004., classical econometrics.
The relative error of model prediction in 2001 is 0.094,0.001.2002 respectively.
0.046,0.024.
Conclusion in this study, two representative ARIMA models in econometric models are used.
The classical econometric equation model predicts three aspects of health resources, namely, people, money and goods.
A satisfactory result is obtained. Structural analysis is made by using the established econometrics equation.
Sex coefficient shows that the elasticity of health expenditure in Tianjin is higher than that of GDP, which is higher than that of the whole country.
To sum up, econometric models are used in health resources research, especially in the development of health resources.
The prediction has played an obvious advantage in the study of the relationship between social population and economic development.
The time series method shows better accuracy in the prediction of health resources research.
The canonical econometric equation has also yielded satisfactory results in the prediction of health resources using the ridge regression method.
The equation can be used to understand the relationship between health resources, social population and economic development in China.
To understand the relationship and guide the development direction of health resources in China, in order to achieve health resources and society.
Coordinate development provides guidance on methods.
【学位授予单位】：天津医科大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2004
【分类号】：R197.1

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