我国政府投资对民间投资的挤入挤出效应研究

发布时间：2018-05-23 09:51

本文选题：政府投资 + 民间投资　；参考：《西北大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：自改革开放以来,投资的概念逐渐为人所知,投资开始在国民经济生活中扮演越来越关键的重要角色。投资、消费和出口是驱动我国经济快速发展的“三驾马车”,这其中,投资处于绝对强势的地位。投资可以分为政府投资和非政府投资,这种划分是依据主体的不同而分的。其中非政府投资主要指民间投资。经典的经济学理论对它们的关系做出了不一样的解释,IS-LM模型表明政府投资增加会挤出民间投资；Aschauer理论说明二者是挤入关系。回顾国内外学者对政府投资与民间投资的关系这一问题的研究发现,诸多的研究并没有产生一个被广泛接受的结论。政府投资对民间投资是起到促进作用还是会抑制民间投资的发展,促进或者抑制的原因是什么,还需要学者们做更深的发掘。这一问题的答案对当前的中国的发展尤其意义非凡,经济新常态时期,既要保证经济增长速度又要提高经济发展质量,政府有必要采取更加积极的财政政策来增加政府投资。但是,政府投资对民间投资会产生不确定的影响,相应的投资政策的实施必须以此为前提。本文首先分类梳理总结了已有的研究成果,然后选取我国1982年至2014年的总量经济数据进行实证分析,利用stata统计软件进行协整和VECM处理,得到政府投资对民间投资的长短期影响。研究表明,长期中发现引致作用,短期中则产生了挤出。随后结合我国实际,分析了产生这种结果的深层次原因并提出了相应的政策建议。研究得出,(1)政府投资的规模要合理、结构要转变(2)政府投资需从竞争性行业有序退出(3)要提高政府投资效率。当然,本文只是从宏观总量上考查了二者的关系,学者们需要做进一步的研究来确定我国政府投资对民间投资到底存在挤入还是挤出效应、亦或是没有关系,以更好的服务于财政政策的制定和实际经济的发展。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the concept of investment is gradually known, investment began to play a more and more important role in national economic life. Investment, consumption and export are the "troika" that drives the rapid development of China's economy, in which investment is in an absolute strong position. Investment can be divided into government investment and non-government investment. Non-government investment mainly refers to non-government investment. The classical economic theories explain their relationship differently. The IS-LM model shows that the increase of government investment will squeeze out private investment. Aschauer theory shows that the two are crowding in relationship. Reviewing the research on the relationship between government investment and private investment at home and abroad, it is found that many studies have not produced a widely accepted conclusion. Whether the government investment promotes the private investment or will restrain the development of the private investment, what is the reason of promoting or restraining, still needs the scholars to do a deeper exploration. The answer to this question is of great significance to the development of China. In the new normal period of economy, it is necessary for the government to adopt more active fiscal policies to increase government investment, both to ensure the speed of economic growth and to improve the quality of economic development. However, government investment will have an uncertain impact on private investment, and the implementation of corresponding investment policies must be based on this premise. This paper firstly classifies and summarizes the existing research results, then selects China's total economic data from 1982 to 2014 for empirical analysis, and uses stata statistical software for co-integration and VECM processing. Get the long-term and short-term effect of government investment on non-government investment. Studies have shown that long-term discovery leads to extrusion in the short term. Then, combined with the reality of our country, this paper analyzes the deep-seated causes of this result and puts forward corresponding policy suggestions. It is concluded that the scale of government investment should be reasonable and the structure should be changed. 2) the government investment should be withdrawn from competitive industries in an orderly manner) and the efficiency of government investment should be improved. Of course, this paper only examines the relationship between the two from the macro total amount. Scholars need to do further research to determine whether there is crowding in or crowding out effect of government investment on private investment, or whether it does not matter. In order to better serve the formulation of fiscal policy and the actual economic development.
【学位授予单位】：西北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F812.45;F124

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