城市化水平、产业结构调整对城市经济增长的影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-05 18:29

本文选题：经济增长 + 城市化　；参考：《东北财经大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：城市作为一个国家或地区的经济和政治的中心,是先进生产力和文化集中的地方,与经济增长有着最为密切的联系,2015年,全国经济总量的80%来源于城市。改革开放以来,我国城市化水平经历了一个快速增长的过程,2015年,户籍人口城市化率已经达到39.9%,常住人口城市化率达到56.1%。伴随城市化的快速发展,我国经济也经历了一个高速发展的阶段,国内生产总值从1978年的3678.7亿元增加到2015年的685505.8亿元。而随着中国步入新常态阶段,我国经济保持了多年的高速增长已经开始转为中速增长,2014年我国国内生产总值的增速仅为7.4%,2015年进一步降低为6.9%,主要是因为我国一直以来依赖出口和投资拉动的经济增长方式已经不再适应当前的经济发展的需要,寻找经济增长的新动力成为当下中国经济发展的主题,而新型城市化建设作为经济增长的重要引擎而被给予厚望。城市化的过程即是原来从事农业生产的农村人口不断向城市转移的过程,因此在城市化的过程中,劳动力也在各个产业之间发生了规律性的转移,劳动力由第一产业不断向第二、三产业转移。到2012年,我国第三产业的产值比重已经超过第二产业。另外,城市化进程的推进导致城市人口增加,就需要政府投入更多的财政支出来满足城市人口对于公共产品的需求。本文在前人研究的基础上,首先构建了经济增长与城市化之间的倒U理论以及产业结构、政府财政支出与城市化相适应的理论框架,然后将全国264个地级市按照人口规模分为四类,使用2003-2014年的数据构建了全国以及四类不同规模城市(特大、大、中、小)的城市化水平、产业结构与经济增长之间关系的5个面板计量经济模型,并使用面板广义矩(Panel Data Generalized Method of Moments,PD-GMM)的方法对5个面板模型分别进行估计。通过本文的研究可以分析目前在我国不同规模城市中经济增长的影响因素,并且为中央政府以及地方政府制定合理的城市化战略、产业结构政策以及财政支出方针提供有价值的政策参考。另外,经济发展水平较低的城市在经济发展过程中可以借鉴经济发展水平较高城市的发展经验。因此本文的研究具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。本文以城市化与城市产出之间的倒U型曲线的理论以及产业结构相关理论为基础构建面板计量模型,通过对模型的估计得出了与城市最优产出所对应的城市化率以及在相应的城市化水平下产业结构调整对城市产出的影响。本文的结论是:城市化水平与城市产出之间存在着显著的倒U型曲线关系,并且测算出目前我国城市达到最大城市产出时所对应的城市化率(适度城市化率)为68.37%,而现在我国的户籍人口城市化率仅为39.9%,因此我国的城市化水平还有很大的提升空间。并且四类不同规模城市的经济增长与城市化水平之间都存在倒U型的曲线关系,但是适度城市化水平并不相同。产业结构调整在不同规模城市中对其产出的影响存在差异,但是在四类不同规模城市中,第二产业仍然是城市经济增长的主要动力,发展高技术、高附加值的现代化工业是目前我国的重要任务。在全国以及四类不同规模的城市面板模型中,政府财政支出对经济增长都有显著的影响。本文的创新点为在理论上论述了经济增长与城市化水平之间存在倒U型曲线趋势,并且构建全国以及四类不同规模城市的5个面板计量模型,运用PD-GMM方法对各个模型进行估计,所得结果验证了倒U型趋势的存在。另一方面本文运用全国地级市的面板数据进行建模,并且在城市分类方面进行了调整,按照人口规模进行分类,所得估计结果验证了不同规模城市所对应最优人均产出时的城市化水平存在差异,不同规模城市的产业结构和地方公共财政支出对城市经济增长的影响也有较大差异。
[Abstract]:As the economic and political center of a country or region, the city is the place where the advanced productive forces and culture are concentrated, and it has the most close connection with the economic growth. In 2015, 80% of the national economic total came from the city. Since the reform and opening up, the level of Urbanization in China has experienced a rapid growth process, and in 2015, the household population city is a city. The rate of urbanization has reached 39.9%. The urbanization rate of the resident population has reached 56.1%. with the rapid development of urbanization. China's economy has also experienced a rapid development stage. The GDP has increased from 367 billion 870 million yuan in 1978 to 68 trillion and 550 billion 580 million yuan in 2015. With China entering the new normal stage, China's economy has maintained a high speed growth for many years. It has begun to turn to medium speed growth. The growth rate of China's GDP in 2014 is only 7.4%, and in 2015 it is further reduced to 6.9%. The main reason is that the economic growth mode which has been dependent on export and investment has no longer adapted to the needs of the current economic development, and the new driving force for economic growth has become the current economic development of China. The theme of the exhibition, and the new urbanization construction as an important engine of economic growth, is given great hope. The process of urbanization is the process that the rural population engaged in agricultural production is transferred to the city continuously. Therefore, during the process of urbanization, the labor force has been transferred regularly between various industries, and the labor force is from the first industry. Shift to the second, third industry continuously. By 2012, the proportion of the output value of the third industry in China has exceeded the second industry. In addition, the advancement of the urbanization process leads to the increase of urban population. It is necessary for the government to invest more financial support to meet the demand of the urban population for public goods. The inverted U theory between economic growth and urbanization, the industrial structure, the theoretical framework of the government's fiscal expenditure and urbanization, then divided the 264 cities into four categories according to the population size, and using the data of 2003-2014 years to construct the urbanization level of the whole country and the four types of cities of different scale (large, large, medium, small). 5 panel econometric models of the relationship between structure and economic growth, and the use of panel generalized moment (Panel Data Generalized Method of Moments, PD-GMM) to estimate the 5 panel models respectively. Through this study, we can analyze the factors that affect the economic growth of different cities in China and the central government. The government and local government formulate reasonable urbanization strategy, industrial structure policy and fiscal expenditure policy to provide valuable policy reference. In addition, the cities with low level of economic development can learn from the experience of the higher level of economic development in the process of economic development. This study has important theoretical significance and is of great significance. This paper builds a panel measurement model based on the theory of inverted U curve between urbanization and urban output and the related theory of industrial structure. Through the estimation of the model, the urbanization rate corresponding to the urban optimal output and the impact of industrial structure adjustment on urban output under the corresponding urbanization level are obtained. The conclusion of this paper is that there is a significant inverted U curve relationship between the urbanization level and the urban output, and calculates the corresponding urbanization rate (moderate urbanization rate) of the largest urban output in our country at present (the rate of moderate urbanization) is 68.37%, but the urbanization rate of the household registered population in China is only 39.9%, so the urbanization level of our country is still there. There is a large space for promotion. And there is an inverted U curve relationship between the economic growth and the urbanization level of the four different scale cities, but the level of moderate urbanization is different. The impact of industrial structure adjustment on the output of different cities in different scale cities is different, but the second industry is still in the four different scale cities. The main driving force of urban economic growth, the development of high technology and high value-added modern industry is an important task in our country. In the national and four types of urban panel models, the government financial expenditure has a significant impact on economic growth. The innovation point of this paper is to discuss the economic growth and urbanization level in theory. There is an inverted U curve trend, and 5 panel measurement models of the national and four different scale cities are constructed, and the PD-GMM method is used to estimate each model. The results verify the existence of the inverted U trend. On the other hand, this paper uses the panel data of the national prefecture level city to model and adjust the city classification. According to the size of the population, the results of the estimated results show that there are differences in the urbanization level of the corresponding optimal people in different scale cities, and the industrial structure of different scale cities and the effect of local public finance expenditure on urban economic growth are also different.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F121.3;F299.2

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