中国产业结构变动对经济波动影响的实证探析

发布时间：2018-06-08 20:03

本文选题：产业结构合理化 + 产业结构高度化　；参考：《重庆理工大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：中国在经历了改革开放之后,经济成长迅速,经济质量稳步提高。随着近年来经济增速的逐步减缓,转变经济增长的方式,实现产业结构的转型升级已成为未来中国经济稳定增长的根本问题。纵观整个世界经济的发展历程,产业结构的转型升级和不断优化,已成为各国经济发展的持续动力。同时,该领域现有的研究成果也从不同角度揭示了产业结构的变动与经济增长的周期波动的关系。因此,研究产业结构变动与经济波动的关系,不仅可以丰富理论学习的知识体系,还可以对保持我国经济的稳定持续增长具有积极的现实意义。本文运用产业结构理论和经济周期波动理论,在对1978年-2013年中国统计资料分析的基础上,从对中国经济波动现象和产业结构变动现象入手,揭示了中国产业结构变动与经济波动之间的关系；通过建立一阶差分GMM模型,对产业结构变动和经济波动进行了实证研究,得出了产业结构合理化和高度化对经济波动具有抑制作用的结论,在产业结构的角度提出了对策建议。本文由六部分构成：第一部分是绪论,主要介绍研究背景、意义和目的,分析本文研究的可行性问题。第二部分是相关理论及文献综述,介绍关于经济波动和产业结构的理论知识,总结学者对此课题的现有论点论述。第三部分是产业结构变动对经济波动的机理分析,介绍产业结构变动如何对经济造成波动影响的机理分析。第四部分是中国产业结构变动与经济波动的统计性描述,通过描述改革三十多年中国实际经济状况以及产业变化情况,分析其中原因所在。第五部分是中国产业结构变动对经济波动影响的计量分析,通过定量分析中国产业结构变动对中国经济波动的数据关联性。本文利用中国31个省市1978年-2013年的面板数据,采用一阶差分GMM模型,分时间阶段分析了中国产业结构变动对中国经济波动的影响。第六部分是结论与建议,基于上述的实证分析结果,总结出产业结构合理化和高度化走势以及对经济波动有何种影响等几点结论。针对“调结构,稳增长”的中央政策,提出有效的产业结构变动建议。
[Abstract]:China has experienced rapid economic growth and steady improvement in economic quality after its reform and opening up. With the gradual slowdown of economic growth in recent years, transforming the mode of economic growth and realizing the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure has become the fundamental problem of stable growth of Chinese economy in the future. Throughout the development of the world economy, the transformation, upgrading and continuous optimization of industrial structure have become the sustained driving force of the economic development of various countries. At the same time, the existing research results in this field also reveal the relationship between the change of industrial structure and the cycle fluctuation of economic growth from different angles. Therefore, the study of the relationship between industrial structure change and economic fluctuation can not only enrich the knowledge system of theoretical study, but also have positive practical significance to maintain the steady and sustained economic growth of our country. Based on the analysis of the statistical data of China from 1978 to 2013, this paper applies the theory of industrial structure and the theory of economic cycle fluctuation, and starts with the phenomenon of economic fluctuation and the change of industrial structure in China. This paper reveals the relationship between industrial structure change and economic fluctuation in China, and makes an empirical study on industrial structure change and economic fluctuation by establishing the first-order differential GMM model. The paper draws the conclusion that the rationalization and elevation of industrial structure can restrain the economic fluctuation, and puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions from the angle of industrial structure. This paper consists of six parts: the first part is an introduction, mainly introduces the research background, significance and purpose, and analyzes the feasibility of this study. The second part is related theory and literature review, introduces the theoretical knowledge about economic fluctuation and industrial structure, and summarizes the existing arguments of scholars on this subject. The third part is the mechanism analysis of the industrial structure change to the economic fluctuation, introduces how the industrial structure change causes the fluctuation mechanism analysis to the economy. The fourth part is the statistical description of China's industrial structure changes and economic fluctuations. The reasons are analyzed by describing the actual economic situation and industrial changes of China in more than 30 years of reform. The fifth part is the econometric analysis of the impact of China's industrial structure changes on economic fluctuations, through quantitative analysis of the data relevance of China's industrial structure changes to China's economic fluctuations. Based on the panel data from 1978 to 2013 in 31 provinces and cities in China, the first order differential GMM model is used to analyze the effect of industrial structure changes on China's economic fluctuation in different stages. The sixth part is the conclusions and suggestions, based on the above empirical analysis results, summed up the rationalization of industrial structure and the trend of high level, as well as the impact on economic fluctuations and so on. In view of the central policy of "adjusting the structure and stabilizing growth", the paper puts forward some effective suggestions on the change of industrial structure.
【学位授予单位】：重庆理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F121.3;F124.8

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