基于饱和负荷预测的配电网规划设计

发布时间：2018-06-10 03:16

本文选题：饱和负荷 + 负荷预测　；参考：《南昌大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着经济的快速发展,城市用电量也快速增长,常规的负荷预测方法,已经难以适应经济社会发展需求,难以做到适度超前的规划以及与城市规划的衔接。整个电网中最靠近用户的就是配电网,它对用电的可靠性和安全性起到至关重要的作用。科学规划好这个部分,对电网的稳定性和经济要求都有很现实的意义。本课题立足于城市发展的用电需求以及对城市的布局进行详细的规划,提出了基于生长曲线和计量经济模型的饱和负荷预测方法,与此同时,给出电力系统饱和负荷综合预测法,给城市配电网远期规划作出负荷依据。城市饱和负荷密度是电网发展最后规模的关键性指标。研究它,就基本确定了城市电网发展的最后规模,可以超前规划线路走廊的变电站布点,且可以将远景电网规划为目标对近期电网规划与建设进行指导,就可以大大减少不必要的改、扩建工程,将因此产生的经济损失减到最少,协调经济发展和电网建设规划之间的步调。本文以赣州市为分析算例,结合灰色理论中的灰色关联法对社会经济系统中影响用电量的各因素进行分析,采用赣州新区GDP及人口微计量经济模型的最基本的指标。然后,运用了三种方法对未来赣州市电力系统的饱和负荷进行预测。实例证明,预测精度最高的办法是基于生长曲线与计量经济模型法结合的综合预测方法。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy and the rapid growth of urban electricity consumption, it is difficult for the conventional load forecasting methods to adapt to the needs of economic and social development, to achieve moderate ahead planning and to link up with urban planning. The distribution network is the closest to the users in the whole power grid, which plays a vital role in the reliability and safety of power consumption. Scientific planning of this part is of practical significance to the stability and economic requirements of power grid. Based on the demand of urban development and the detailed planning of urban layout, this paper puts forward the saturation load forecasting method based on growth curve and econometric model, at the same time, The comprehensive forecasting method of saturated load of power system is presented, and the load basis for the long term planning of urban distribution network is given. Urban saturated load density is a key indicator of the final scale of power grid development. By studying it, the final scale of urban power network development is basically determined, the substation layout of line corridor can be planned ahead of time, and the long-term power network planning can be taken as the goal to guide the planning and construction of power grid in the near future. It can greatly reduce the unnecessary reform, expand the project, reduce the economic losses to the minimum, and coordinate the pace between economic development and power network construction planning. This paper takes Ganzhou City as an example and analyzes the factors affecting electricity consumption in the social economic system by combining the grey correlation method in grey theory. The most basic indexes of GDP and population microeconometric model in Ganzhou New area are adopted. Then, three methods are used to predict the saturation load of Ganzhou electric power system in the future. An example shows that the most accurate method is a comprehensive forecasting method based on the combination of growth curve and econometric model.
【学位授予单位】：南昌大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：TM715

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