基于间断—均衡理论的中央“一号文件”农业政策变迁研究

发布时间：2018-06-16 11:50

本文选题：间断—均衡理论 + “一号文件”　；参考：《云南大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：间断—均衡理论起源于西方,是专门研究突变式政策变迁的主流理论,自20世纪70年代以来被广泛运用于多数国家的具体公共政策变迁过程研究。该理论既关注长期的渐进政策变迁过程,同时也解释长期稳定和连续的政策变迁过程中发生的政策间断现象,为政策变迁研究提供了崭新的分析框架。基于此,本文以间断—均衡理论为理论工具,以中央“一号文件”农业政策变迁为研究样本,在对间断—均衡理论和中央“一号文件”进行概述后,从宏观和微观两个层面出发,对中央“一号文件”农业政策的间断一均衡变迁进行了透视。在宏观层面,中央“一号文件”农业政策变迁呈现出“政策均衡(1982—1986)—政策中断(1987—2003)—新政策均衡(2004—2015)"的演进逻辑。同时,运用间断—均衡理论的核心要素对中央“一号文件"农业政策的间断—均衡变迁进行了解释；在微观层面,运用政策文献量化研究方法,通过高频主题词提取、建立主题类目、统计类目词频以及分析类目随时间变化情况等方式对1982—1986年以及2004--2015年两个阶段的十七份中央“一号文件"政策文献进行了计量分析。最后,基于上述分析,本文分别从理论层面的间断—均衡理论和实践层面的“三农”问题解决提出了几点启示。在间断—均衡理论的启示方面：通过研究,本文认为,间断—均衡理论对中央“一号文件"农业政策变迁具有较强的解释力,但也存在自身的解释限度。同时,研究发现,中央“一号文件”农业政策间断一均衡变迁受群众路线、换届整合、共识决策、政策仪式、规划锁定五个特殊要素的影响。因此,需要基于我国政策实践,结合驱动中央“一号文件”农业政策间断—均衡变迁的五个特殊要素,对间断—均衡理论框架进行拓展与修正,从而为我国政策变迁提供更为精准有效的分析框架；在“三农”问题解决的启示方面：中央“一号文件”不仅要继续以“三农”问题为主题,保持政策的连续性,还要释放政策红利,避免符号化为一个象征性公共政策。还有,中央“一号文件”要主动适应经济新常态,做好政策要点的中断与均衡以及要在政策制定中强化智库作用,推动政府科学决策。
[Abstract]:The theory of discontinuous equilibrium originated in the West and is the mainstream theory of abrupt policy change. It has been widely used in the study of the process of public policy change in most countries since the 1970s. This theory not only pays attention to the long-term gradual policy change process, but also explains the policy discontinuity in the long-term stable and continuous policy change process, which provides a new analytical framework for the policy change research. Based on this, this paper takes the discontinuous equilibrium theory as the theoretical tool, taking the agricultural policy change of the Central Committee "No. 1 document" as the research sample, after summarizing the discontinuous-equilibrium theory and the central "No. 1 document". From the macro and micro aspects, this paper makes a perspective on the discontinuous-equilibrium change of the agricultural policy of the Central Committee. At the macro level, the change of agricultural policy in the "No. 1 document" of the Central Committee shows the evolutionary logic of "Policy equilibrium 1982-1986- Policy interruption 1987-2003- New Policy equilibrium 2004-2015)". At the same time, using the core elements of discontinuous equilibrium theory, this paper explains the discontinuous equilibrium change of the agricultural policy of the Central Committee of the first document, at the micro level, using the quantitative research method of policy literature, extracting the high-frequency theme words, This paper presents a quantitative analysis of 17 documents of the first document of the Central Committee in 1982-1986 and 2004-2015 by establishing the subject category, the word frequency of the statistical category and the changing situation of the analytical category with time. Finally, based on the above analysis, this paper puts forward some enlightenments from the theory of discontinuous equilibrium theory and the practical level of solving the problem of "agriculture, countryside and farmers". On the enlightenment of the discontinuous equilibrium theory: through the research, this paper holds that the discontinuous equilibrium theory has a strong explanatory power to the change of agricultural policy of the central "No. 1 document", but it also has its own interpretation limit. At the same time, it is found that the discontinuous and balanced changes of agricultural policies in the "No. 1 document" of the Central Committee are influenced by five special factors: mass line, transition integration, consensus decision, policy ceremony and planning lock in. Therefore, it is necessary to expand and revise the theoretical framework of discontinuous-equilibrium, based on the policy practice of our country and the five special elements that drive the discontinuous equilibrium change of agricultural policy in the "No. 1 document" of the Central Committee. In order to provide a more accurate and effective analysis framework for China's policy changes, in terms of the enlightenment of solving the "three rural" problems: the "No. 1 document" of the Central Committee should not only continue to take the "three rural issues" as the theme, and maintain the continuity of the policy. Also release policy dividends and avoid symbolizing a symbolic public policy. In addition, the "No. 1 document" of the Central Committee should take the initiative to adapt to the new normal state of the economy, do a good job of interrupting and balancing the key points of policies, and strengthen the role of think tanks in policy making so as to promote the government's scientific decision-making.
【学位授予单位】：云南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F320

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