出口二元边际对经济增长影响的研究

发布时间：2018-06-19 13:39

本文选题：出口二元边际 + 外延边际　；参考：《华中科技大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济发展进入新常态,我国的对外贸易也进入了以稳增长、调结构、提质量为特征的新常态,大规模数量扩张的需求基础不复存在,市场竞争逐步转向质量型、差异化为主的竞争,对外贸易特别是对外贸易的多样化扩张如何影响经济增长,成为迫切需要解决的理论和现实问题。从这一点出发,本文在对我国对外贸易进行二元分解的基础上,利用计量模型探究研究二元边际对经济增长的影响方向和作用大小,并提出对应的政策建议,这对于促进我国对外贸易和经济增长的持续平衡发展具有重大意义。本文借鉴国外经典理论和模型,将出口多样化(外延边际)纳入经济增长函数中,解释出口多样化影响经济增长的微观机理。然后,采用CEPII BACI数据库按HS96分类的、共242个国家和5068种六位数级商品编码代表的产品在1998-2014年的进出口数据,从国家和行业层面对出口二元边际进行了分解测度和分析。紧接着,构建计量模型并通过实证研究检验出口二元边际对经济增长的影响方向和作用大小,并对相应结果做出合理解释。从二元边际的分解测度看,中国出口增长源于外延边际的贡献小于美国、德国等发达国家,源于内延边际的贡献大于外延边际;中国资源型或劳动密集型行业如纺织工业外延边际较高,但无增幅,资金和技术密集型工业如机械工业、化工工业外延边际呈现波动上升,除石油、煤炭等能源工业,其他工业内延边际指数均不断上升。实证结果显示,外延边际均有助于促进经济增长,发达国家的促进作用更大;发达国家的内延边际对经济增长具有负向影响,而发展中国家的内延边际对经济增有微弱的正向影响。中国工业整体上,出口增长二元边际对经济增长均有正向促进作用,外延边际的正向作用更大。其中,资源型、劳动密集型工业的外延边际显对经济增长具有促进作用,资本、技术型工业的外延边际对经济增长有微弱的抑制作用。
[Abstract]:As China's economic development enters the new normal, China's foreign trade has entered a new normal characterized by steady growth, structural adjustment and quality improvement. The demand basis for large-scale quantitative expansion has ceased to exist, and the market competition has gradually shifted to the qualitative type. How the diversification of foreign trade, especially the expansion of foreign trade, affects economic growth has become an urgent theoretical and practical problem to be solved. From this point of view, on the basis of the dualistic decomposition of China's foreign trade, this paper uses the econometric model to explore the direction and size of the influence of duality marginal on economic growth, and puts forward corresponding policy recommendations. It is of great significance to promote the sustainable and balanced development of China's foreign trade and economic growth. In this paper, the export diversification (extension margin) is incorporated into the economic growth function for reference to foreign classical theories and models, and the micro mechanism of export diversification affecting economic growth is explained. Then, the import and export data of 242 countries and 5068 kinds of products represented by six-digit commodity coding in 1998-2014 are analyzed and analyzed in terms of national and industry level by using the CEPII BACI database classified by HS96. Then, the econometric model is constructed and the influence direction and effect of dualistic marginal of export on economic growth are tested through empirical research, and the corresponding results are explained reasonably. According to the decomposition measure of dualistic margin, the contribution of China's export growth from the extension margin is smaller than that from the developed countries such as the United States and Germany, and the contribution from the internal extension margin is greater than that from the extension margin. China's resource-based or labor-intensive industries, such as the textile industry, have a relatively high extension margin, but no increase, while capital and technology-intensive industries such as machinery industries and chemical industry industries show fluctuations and rise, except for oil, coal and other energy industries. Other industries within the Yanbian index are rising. The empirical results show that the extension margin contributes to economic growth, while the developed countries play a more important role in promoting economic growth, and the inner boundary of developed countries has a negative impact on economic growth. But the developing country's inner extension edge has the weak positive influence to the economic growth. In China's industry as a whole, the dual marginal of export growth has a positive effect on economic growth, and the positive effect of the extension margin is even greater. Among them, the extension margin of resource-type and labor-intensive industry can promote the economic growth, while the extension margin of capital and technology industry has a weak inhibitory effect on economic growth.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F752.62;F124.1

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