腐败、公共支出对经济增长的影响分析

发布时间：2018-06-20 10:44

  本文选题：腐败 + 公共支出　； 参考：《湖南大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放三十年来,中国经济持续保持高速增长,同时公共支出也迅速增长,并且在我国国内生产总值中所占的比重也越来越大,但同时中国较为严重的腐败问题也渐渐成为整个社会关注的焦点。一般来讲,腐败发生于公共支出领域,经济水平较发达的地区腐败程度相对较低。中国却出现了高腐败与高经济增长的现象。本文的主要内容是研究腐败如何通过公共支出途径来作用于我国经济增长的。本文首先深入分析我国腐败和公共支出的现状、特点,从理论上分析了我国腐败通过公共支出对经济增长的影响机制,在此基础上构建计量模型,探求我国腐败通过公共支出对经济增长的影响。其次,本文的实证分析采用我国31个省份1994-2012年的数据,通过两步实证研究来验证理论假设。第一步,经过豪斯曼检验后,采用固定相应回归来验证腐败对公共支出的影响,得出腐败扩大了公共支出规模,扭曲公共支出结构即腐败扩大了经济建设支出和行政管理支出,减少了教科文卫支出和国防支出的计量结果,基本上与理论机理相符。第二部,在Barro的经典内生经济增长模型中嵌入腐败这一变量,并采用Hansen的门槛回归的计量方法进行回归。计量结果表明,公共支出规模和各类公共支出对经济增长的影响均存在腐败的门槛效应：公共支出规模对经济增长的影响存在腐败的双重门槛,随着腐败程度的加剧,公共支出规模对经济增长作用由促进作用变为不显著再变为抑制作用；经济建设支出对经济增长的影响存在腐败的单一门槛,当腐败程度较低是,经济建设支出促进经济增长,当腐败程度较高时,经济建设支出对经济增长影响不显著；教科文卫支出对经济增长的影响存在腐败的双重门槛,随着腐败程度的加剧,教科文卫支出对经济增长的作用由促进作用变为不显著再变为抑制作用；国防支出对经济增长的影响存在腐败的单一门槛,当腐败程度较低时,国防支出促进经济增长,当腐败程度较高时,国防支出对经济增长影响不显著。行政管理支出对经济增长的影响存在腐败的单一门槛,当腐败程度较低时,行政管理支出对经济增长影响不显著,当腐败程度较高时,行政管理支出抑制经济增长。最后,在理论和实证分析的基础上,针对腐败通过公共支作用于经济增长,提出相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Over the past 30 years of reform and opening up, China's economy has maintained rapid growth, while public expenditure has also increased rapidly, and it also accounts for an increasingly large proportion of China's gross domestic product. But at the same time, the more serious corruption in China has gradually become the focus of the whole society. Generally speaking, corruption occurs in the field of public expenditure, and the degree of corruption is relatively low in economically developed areas. However, China has a high level of corruption and high economic growth. The main content of this paper is to study how corruption acts on China's economic growth through the way of public expenditure. Firstly, this paper analyzes the current situation and characteristics of corruption and public expenditure in China, and theoretically analyzes the mechanism of the influence of corruption on economic growth through public expenditure, on the basis of which a measurement model is constructed. To explore the impact of corruption on economic growth through public expenditure. Secondly, the empirical analysis of this paper uses the data from 1994 to 2012 from 31 provinces in China, and verifies the theoretical hypothesis through two-step empirical research. The first step, after the Hausmann test, uses fixed regression to verify the influence of corruption on public expenditure. It is concluded that corruption expands the scale of public expenditure, and distorts the structure of public expenditure, that is, corruption expands economic construction expenditure and administrative expenditure. The results of reducing the expenditure of education, science, culture and health and national defense are basically consistent with the theory and mechanism. In the second part, the variable of corruption is embedded in Barro's classical endogenous economic growth model, and Hansen's threshold regression method is used for regression. The results show that both the scale of public expenditure and the influence of all kinds of public expenditure on economic growth have the threshold effect of corruption: the impact of scale of public expenditure on economic growth has a double threshold of corruption, and with the increase of the degree of corruption, The influence of economic construction expenditure on economic growth has a single threshold of corruption. When the degree of corruption is low, economic construction expenditure promotes economic growth. When the degree of corruption is high, the influence of economic construction expenditure on economic growth is not significant, and the impact of education, science, culture and health expenditure on economic growth has a double threshold of corruption, as the degree of corruption intensifies, The effect of education, science, culture and health expenditure on economic growth has changed from promoting function to not significant effect to restraining effect. There is a single threshold of corruption in the influence of national defense expenditure on economic growth. When the degree of corruption is low, national defense expenditure promotes economic growth. When corruption is high, defense spending has no significant impact on economic growth. There is a single threshold of corruption in the influence of administrative expenditure on economic growth. When the degree of corruption is low, the impact of administrative expenditure on economic growth is not significant, and when the degree of corruption is high, administrative expenditure inhibits economic growth. Finally, on the basis of theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations on corruption acting on economic growth through public branches.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F812.45
，

本文编号：2043987