我国居民实际最终消费的测算及对经济的影响

发布时间：2018-07-04 18:24

本文选题：居民实际最终消费 + 实物社会转移　；参考：《天津财经大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：在经济增长的三驾马车中,居民消费需求占着举足轻重的作用,研究居民消费需求意义深远。然而值得注意的是:改革开放以来拉动我国经济高速增长的主要是投资和净出口,居民消费需求严重不足。此外,我国现行的核算体系,未给出实际最终消费的相关统计,这使得居民消费不具有国际可比性。为了解决上述问题,文章首先测算出我国居民实际最终消费。基于实际最终消费的定义,文章从财政支出中分离出相应的实物社会转移,从而得到居民实际最终消费,并且分析其变化趋势和结构。得出结论:即使在加入实物社会转移后我国居民消费水平仍旧低于发达国家美国、韩国,以及发展中国家印度;在加入政府因素后,我国的恩格尔系数已经低于30%,达到比较富裕的阶段。接着深入探讨实物社会转移与居民消费之间的关系。文章从两个角度进行分析:一是从全国的角度,利用2003-2014年的城乡实物社会转移与消费的数据,运用线性回归模型发现两者之间的关系。得出结论:在总量方面,实物社会转移对城乡居民影响效果不同,对前者的效应不明显,对后者存在挤入效应;在结构方面,教育、文化和社会保护支出与农村居民消费存在挤入效应,而医疗卫生支出与农村居民消费存在挤出效应。对于城镇居民,教育和医疗卫生支出与居民消费存在挤出效应。二是利用我国31个省份2007-2014年的面板数据进行空间计量分析,得出我国城乡居民消费存在明显的空间正相关,存在空间滞后效应和空间误差效应。最后,基于文章的实证结果,从提升居民人均可支配收入、优化财政支出结构、完善相应公共服务以及注重区域协同发展等方面努力,力求达到促进居民消费的目的。
[Abstract]:In the troika of economic growth, the consumption demand of residents plays an important role. However, it is worth noting that since the reform and opening up, the main driving factors for China's rapid economic growth are investment and net exports, and the consumption demand of residents is seriously insufficient. In addition, the current accounting system of our country does not give the relevant statistics of the actual final consumption, which makes the resident consumption not comparable internationally. In order to solve the above problems, the article first measured the actual final consumption of Chinese residents. Based on the definition of actual final consumption, this paper separates the corresponding real social transfer from the financial expenditure, and then obtains the real final consumption of residents, and analyzes its changing trend and structure. The conclusion is that the consumption level of Chinese residents is still lower than that of the developed countries, the United States, South Korea, and the developing country India, even after joining the physical social transfer. The Engel coefficient of our country has been lower than 30 percent, reaching a relatively rich stage. Then the relationship between the real social transfer and the residents' consumption is discussed in depth. This paper analyzes from two angles: first, from the point of view of the whole country, using the data of urban and rural real social transfer and consumption from 2003 to 2014, using the linear regression model to find the relationship between the two. Conclusion: in terms of total amount, the effect of physical social transfer on urban and rural residents is different, the effect on the former is not obvious, and there is crowding effect on the latter. Cultural and social protection expenditure and rural residents' consumption had crowding in effect, while medical and health expenditure had crowding-out effect on rural residents' consumption. For urban residents, there is an crowding out effect between expenditure on education and health care and residents' consumption. Secondly, the panel data from 31 provinces of China from 2007 to 2014 are used to carry out spatial econometric analysis, and it is concluded that there is a significant spatial positive correlation, spatial lag effect and spatial error effect in the consumption of urban and rural residents in China. Finally, based on the empirical results of the paper, the author tries to promote the residents' consumption by improving the per capita disposable income, optimizing the structure of fiscal expenditure, perfecting the corresponding public services and paying attention to the coordinated development of the region.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F126.1;F124

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