我国高等教育扩展影响大学溢价的研究：机理与效应

发布时间：2018-07-05 03:55

本文选题：高等教育扩展 + 大学溢价　；参考：《山东大学》2017年博士论文

【摘要】：自1999年我国高等教育实施大规模扩招以来,大学学历劳动者在劳动力市场上的供给急剧增加。在现实社会中也伴随就业难而产生了"大学无用论"、"读书无用论"的社会认知,其可能的原因就是高等教育扩展在迅速增加大学毕业生规模的同时,降低了大学学历相对收益率,缩减了大学溢价水平。然而,从知识经济发展的内在要求来看,高等教育必须不断扩展以提升人力资本水平与技能劳动力的相对占比,推动技能偏态型技术进步,进而提高大学学历劳动者的相对需求,并扩大大学溢价。因此,高等教育扩展影响大学溢价变动的效应方向,在现实判断与理论分析之间出现了矛盾、对立。那么,高等教育扩展对大学溢价的影响究竟是扩大还是减小呢?针对这个疑问,本文认为不论是从理论层面探讨知识经济发展对高等教育扩展的内在要求,还是从现实层面回应"大学无用论"的社会现象,都需要厘清高等教育扩展与大学溢价变动之间的作用机理,并对高等教育扩展影响大学溢价变动的具体效应进行实证检验。在此基础上,本文提出以下具体研究问题:高等教育扩展影响大学溢价的路径与机理,如何在理论层面进行刻画?基于高等教育扩展影响大学溢价的路径与机理,如何进行数理模型构建?通过我国经验数据检验,高等教育扩展对大学溢价是否存在影响?我国高等教育扩展对大学溢价的具体效应,究竟是增加还是降低?以上疑问就是本文尝试通过理论分析与实证检验进行探讨与回答的研究问题。围绕高等教育扩展影响大学溢价变动这一研究主题,本文主要采用规范分析与实证分析相结合的研究方法展开具体研究,总体内容框架分为两部分;机理分析、效应检验。其中,机理分析是以高等教育扩展的分流功能为切入点展开传导路径刻画与数理模型构建;效应检验则是从宏观数据、微观数据两个层面分别进行回归分析。本文并将论文共划分为七章展开具体研究,每个章节的主要研究内容安排,具体如下所述:第1章概要介绍了本文的主要概念、研究思路与研究方法等内容。第2章梳理与述评了高等教育影扩展响大学溢价的现有研究文献。第3章根据相关理论基础,剖析并阐述了大学溢价的形成与变动规律,对高等教育扩展影响大学溢价的机理与传导路径进行了刻画。在理论刻画的基础上,本章以高等教育扩展的分流功能作为机理分析的切入点,并基于阿西莫格鲁与墨菲提出的技能劳动相对供需框架,通过多部门模型的经济均衡分析将高等教育扩展引入到技能劳动相对供需框架之中,推导了高等教育扩展影响大学溢价变动的数理模型。第4章为我国高等教育规模扩展影响大学溢价的实证检验。本章根据第3章的数理模型推导,构建了高等教育规模扩展影响大学溢价的估计模型。基于相关数据的可获得性,本章使用2004—2010年我国31个省份的省级面板数据,回归估计高等教育扩展影响大学溢价的具体效应,并通过变换估计方法、替换解释变量、替换被解释变量等三种方法对实证结果进行了稳健性检验。最后,本章归纳总结我国高等教育扩展影响大学溢价的宏观作用情况,得出本部分的研究结论。第5章为我国高等教育经费投入扩展影响大学溢价的效应检验。本章结合第3章的机理分析与第4章实证检验的面板模型,以及高等教育经费投入与人力资本积累效率之间的数量关系,构建了高等教育经费投入扩展影响大学溢价的计量模型。然后,使用省级面板数据实证检验了公共教育经费、私人教育经费对大学溢价变动的规模效应,并分别从学校层级、学校类型两个维度对实证估计了高等教育经费投入影响大学溢价的结构效应。第6章为我国高等教育扩展影响大学溢价变动的微观分析。本章根据第2章中对现有文献的梳理,基于明瑟教育收益率方程构建了微观大学溢价的估计模型,并使用2003—2013年的CGSS数据,测算了我国微观大学溢价在高等教育扩展期间的变动趋势。然后,本章使用双重差分模型(DID)技术构建了我国高等教育扩展影响大学溢价水平变动的三重差分计量模型,并使用1989—2011年的CHNS数据构建混合横截面进行了实证检验,以从微观层面探讨我国高等教育扩展影响大学溢价的具体效应。本章以收入水平差异作为大学生群体异质性的变量指标,使用分位数回归方法检验了高等教育扩展对不同收入分位大学生群体溢价水平的影响作用。第7章根据本文的实证检验结果,归纳总结了主要研究结论,并为高等教育扩展的未来发展提出了相应的政策建议。在上述研究框架的具体研究过程中,本文主要在以下四个方面进行了新的尝试。第一、本文在理论分析与数量模型两个层面,选取高等教育扩展的分流功能作为切入点,刻画了高等教育扩展影响大学溢价的传导路径与作用机理,对现有研究做出了一定的推进。鉴于现有研究尚未剖析高等教育扩展影响大学溢价的作用机理,本文通过结合人力资本异质性理论、劳动力市场供需均衡理论,同时由高等教育扩展的分流功能切入,理论分析了高等教育扩展引致劳动力市场中的增量异质结构变动,进而影响劳动力市场供需均衡,最终引起大学溢价变动的传导路径。在此基础上,本研究基于技能劳动相对供需框架,通过构建多部门均衡模型将高等教育扩展引入到大学溢价决定方程之中,构建出高等教育扩展影响大学溢价变动的数理模型。第二、本文使用宏观数据实证检验得到的研究结论,对大多从微观层面进行分析与探讨的现有研究,具有一定的补充作用。本文根据我国高等教育扩展实践,运用我国省级面板数据进行了回归估计,验证了高等教育扩展影响大学溢价的传导路径与数量模型是成立的。同时,本文分别以高等教育规模扩展作为总量维度,以高等教育经费投入扩展作为结构维度实证检验了高等教育扩展影响大学溢价的具体效应。本文得出在技能劳动相对供需框架中,由于高等教育扩展对大学溢价的相对需求渠道效应大于相对供给渠道效应,故在宏观层面上我国高等教育扩展并没有减小大学溢价,反而扩大了大学溢价的研究结论。第三、本文综合宏观、微观两个层面的实证分析,相对于现有文献中的单一层面来讲,可以更加全面地考察我国高等教育扩展影响大学溢价变动的具体效应。具体来说,在宏观层面分析中,本文将高等教育扩展划分为总量维度与结构维度,考察我国高等教育扩展对大学溢价变动的总量效应与结构效应。在微观层面分析中,本文在三重差分模型的基础上引入大学生群体异质性因素,使用分位数回归以比较分析了我国高等教育扩展影响不同群组微观大学溢价的效应差异。本研究期望通过两个层面与多个维度的实证分析,可以更加全面与深入地探讨我国高等教育扩展对大学溢价的影响效应。第四、本文对人力资本积累效率的测算,不仅有助于加深对我国高等教育经费投入扩展与人力资本结构优化之间关系的理解,同时也丰富了分析高等教育技术效率的研究视角。本文尝试使用随机前沿分析SFA方法,以高等教育经费投入作为投入项,以高等教育育规模扩展引致的劳动力异质结构变动作为产出项,测算了我国高等教育的人力资本积累效率。在测算过程中,本文对不同地区之间的人力资本积累效率进行了比较分析,得出了我国各省份的高等教育人力资本积累效率以及地区差异情况。其中,各地区高等教育人力资本积累效率由高到低依次为:东部、西部、中部,高等教育技术效率最低的是中部地区。最后,本文综合宏观与微观两个层面实证检验结果,证明了我国高等教育扩展并没有导致大学溢价的持续降低,并且总体上反而扩大了大学溢价水平。此研究结论在一定程度上也证明了"读书无用论"、"大学无用论"的问题根源并不是由高等教育规模扩展引起的。同时,我国高等教育经费投入扩展影响大学溢价的效应表现为:公共经费投入是提高高等教育人力资本积累效率主要因素,可以显著增加技能劳动力相对供给,对大学溢价具有显著的缩减作用;而私人经费投入则对大学溢价具有显著的扩大作用。此外,大学溢价的显著存在说明了选择上大学、接受高等教育是一项相对收益丰厚的人力资本投资行为。而大学溢价随收入分位群组的升高而减小的分布规律,则表明接受高等教育,获得大学学历将更加有利于中低收入人群实现收入水平的增加。这在一定程度上说明了高等教育扩展不仅有利于促进社会公平,同时对中低收入家庭还具有增收、减贫的功能。
[Abstract]:Since the large-scale enrollment expansion of higher education in China in 1999, the supply of college educated workers has increased dramatically in the labor market. In the real society, it is also accompanied by the difficulty of employment and the social cognition of "the useless theory of universities" and "the theory of reading is useless". The possible reason is that higher education expands to increase the scale of college graduates rapidly. At the same time, the relative rate of university education has been reduced and the premium level of university has been reduced. However, from the internal requirements of the development of knowledge economy, higher education must be continuously expanded to improve the relative proportion of human capital and skilled labor, to promote technical progress and to improve the relative demand of college educated workers. Therefore, the expansion of higher education has an impact on the effect of the change in the premium of the University, and there is a contradiction between the realistic judgment and the theoretical analysis. Then, the effect of the expansion of higher education on the premium of the university is expanding or decreasing? In this question, the paper considers that the knowledge economy is discussed from the theoretical level. To develop the internal requirements of the expansion of higher education, or to respond to the social phenomenon of the "useless theory of University" from the realistic level, it is necessary to clarify the mechanism between the expansion of higher education and the change in the premium of the University, and make an empirical test on the concrete effects of the expansion of higher education on the change of premium in universities. On this basis, the following is proposed. Body research problem: how does the expansion of higher education affect the path and mechanism of University premium and how to depict it in a theoretical level? How to build a mathematical model based on the path and mechanism of higher education expansion affecting university premium? Is there any impact on University premium through China's empirical data test and higher education expansion? China's Higher Education The specific effect of expansion on University premium is increasing or decreasing? The above question is the research question that this article tries to discuss and answer through theoretical analysis and empirical test. The general content framework is divided into two parts: the mechanism analysis and the effect test. Among them, the mechanism analysis takes the conduction path depiction and the mathematical model construction as the breakthrough point of the expansion of higher education. The effect test is the regression analysis from the macroscopic data and the microscopic data in two levels. A total of seven chapters are divided into specific studies, the main contents of each chapter are arranged as follows: the first chapter briefly introduces the main concepts, research ideas and methods of research. The second chapter reviews and reviews the existing research literature on the premium of university expansion in higher education. The third chapter is based on the relevant theoretical basis. The formation and change rules of University premium are described and the mechanism and transmission path of higher education expansion affecting the premium are depicted. On the basis of the theoretical characterization, this chapter takes the distributary function of higher education as the breakthrough point of the mechanism analysis, and based on the relative supply and demand frame proposed by Acemoglu and Murphy. On the basis of the economic equilibrium analysis of the multi sector model, the expansion of higher education is introduced into the framework of relative supply and demand of skilled labor, and the mathematical model of the influence of higher education expansion on the premium changes is derived. The fourth chapter is an empirical examination of the influence of the scale expansion of higher education in China. This chapter is derived from the mathematical model of the third chapter. Based on the availability of related data, this chapter uses provincial panel data from 2004 to 2010 in 31 provinces of China to estimate the specific effects of higher education expansion on University premium based on the availability of related data, and replaces explanatory variables and replace the explanatory variables by transformation estimation methods. The three methods have carried on the robustness test to the empirical results. Finally, this chapter summarizes the macro effect of the expansion of higher education in China on the impact of University premium, and draws the conclusions of this part. The fifth chapter is the effect test on the effect of the expansion of higher education expenditure in China on the effect of University premium. This chapter combines the mechanism analysis and the fourth chapter of the third chapters. The panel model of the certificate inspection, and the quantitative relationship between the investment of higher education and the efficiency of the accumulation of human capital, set up a measurement model for the expansion of higher education funds to influence the premium of the University. Then, using the provincial panel data to test the public education funds and the scale effect of the private education funds on the change of the University premium. From the two dimensions of school level and school type, the paper estimates the structural effect of higher education fund investment on the impact of University premium. The sixth chapter is the micro analysis of the influence of higher education premium on the change of University premium in China. This chapter builds the microcosmic size based on the education return rate equation based on the existing literature in the second chapters. This chapter uses the CGSS data from 2003 to 2013 to calculate the change trend of China's Micro University premium during the expansion of higher education. Then, this chapter uses the dual differential model (DID) to construct the three differential difference measurement model of the higher education premium level changes in China's higher education, and uses 1989 - 2011. In this chapter, the concrete effects of the expansion of higher education in China on the premium of higher education are discussed from the micro level. This chapter takes the difference of income level as the variable index of the heterogeneity of college students, and uses the method of quantile regression to test the expansion of higher education to the students of different income. In the seventh chapter, according to the results of the empirical test, the main conclusions are summarized, and the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward for the future development of higher education. In the specific research process of the above research framework, this paper has made a new attempt in the following four aspects. First, this article is rational On the two levels of analysis and quantitative model, this paper selects the distributary function of higher education expansion as a breakthrough point, portrays the transmission path and mechanism of higher education expansion affecting university premium, and makes some progress on the existing research. In view of the existing research, the mechanism of the influence of higher education expansion on University premium has not been analyzed. Combined with the theory of human capital heterogeneity, the theory of supply and demand equilibrium in labor market, and the split function expanded by higher education, this paper theoretically analyzes the incremental heterogeneity of the labor market caused by the expansion of higher education, and then affects the balance of supply and demand in the labor market, and eventually leads to the transmission path of the change of the University premium. Based on the relative supply and demand framework of skilled labor, this study introduces the expansion of higher education into the University premium determination equation through the construction of multi sector equilibrium model, and constructs a mathematical model of higher education premium changes in higher education. Second. On the basis of the extended practice of higher education in China, this paper uses the provincial panel data of our country to make a regression estimate, and verifies that the transmission path and quantity model of higher education expansion affect the premium of higher education. At the same time, the scale of higher education is on the scale of higher education respectively. In this paper, the relative demand of higher education expansion is larger than the relative supply channel effect in the framework of the relative demand and supply of higher education, because the expansion of higher education is greater than the effect of the relative supply channel. On the view level, the expansion of China's higher education does not reduce the University premium, but enlarges the research conclusion of the University premium. Third, the empirical analysis of the comprehensive macro and micro two levels, compared with the single level of the existing literature, can make a more comprehensive investigation of the specific effect of the expansion of higher education in China on the change of premium in universities. Specifically, in the macro level analysis, this paper divides the expansion of higher education into total and structural dimensions, and examines the total effect and structural effect of the higher education expansion on the premium changes in China. In the micro level analysis, this paper introduces the heterogeneity factors of the college students on the basis of the three difference model and uses the heterogeneity of the college students. Quantile regression is used to analyze the effects of the expansion of higher education on the premium of different groups in China. This study is expected to make a more comprehensive and in-depth study of the effect of higher education expansion on University premium through two levels and multiple dimensions. Fourth, the accumulation of human capital in this paper. The calculation of efficiency not only helps to deepen the understanding of the relationship between the expansion of higher education funds and the optimization of human capital structure in China, but also enriches the research perspective of the analysis of the technical efficiency of higher education. This paper tries to use the SFA method of stochastic frontier analysis to take the investment of higher education and education as an input and the regulation of higher education. As an output item, the labor capital accumulation efficiency of higher education in China is calculated by the model expansion. In the process of calculation, this paper makes a comparative analysis on the efficiency of human capital accumulation between different regions, and draws the efficiency of human capital accumulation and regional differences in Higher Education in various provinces in China. Among them, the efficiency of human capital accumulation in Higher Education from high to low in each region is in the following order: the eastern, western, central, and the lowest technical efficiency of higher education is the central region. Finally, this paper combines the two levels of macro and micro empirical test results, which proves that the expansion of higher education in China has not resulted in the continuous reduction of University premium, and the overall level of higher education has not been reduced. In a certain extent, the conclusion of this study also proves that the root of the problem of "useless reading" is not caused by the expansion of the scale of higher education. At the same time, the effect of the expansion of the investment of higher education in Higher Education in China is as follows: the public funds input is the improvement of higher education. The main factors of the efficiency of human capital accumulation can significantly increase the relative supply of skilled labor and have a significant reduction in University premium, while private investment has a significant expansion effect on University premium. In addition, the significant existence of University premium shows that the choice of higher education is a relatively high benefit. The distribution law of the University premium with the increase of the income sub group shows that the acceptance of higher education and the acquisition of university education will be more conducive to the increase of the income level of the middle and low income population. To a certain extent, the expansion of higher education is not only conducive to the promotion of social equity, but also to the promotion of social equity. The low and middle income families also have the function of increasing income and reducing poverty.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：G649.2

【参考文献】