需求引导下的经济增长研究

发布时间：2018-07-17 06:55

【摘要】：经济增长在人类历史上大致经历了三个阶段:经济增长停滞阶段,经济快速增长阶段,经济增长收敛阶段。如果我们要用一个主线来串联起经济增长的整个历史过程,来解释经济增长,那么资本不行,技术也不行,著名的李约瑟之谜就是对资本和技术解释经济增长的否定。关于经济增长的决定性因素,主流经济增长理论有解释为资本的,有解释为技术,或者人力资本的,但其实这都是经济增长在某个阶段表现出稳定性后,我们寻找出的与经济增长数据关联度最高的那个变量,而在解释不同阶段经济增长方面,这些变量是缺乏说服力的。经典经济增长理论大多是基于西方近现代经济发展经验得出的理论成果,虽具有一定的普世性,但针对不同的历史阶段和地区,在解释某些问题方面仍会存在出入。因此,如果我们能用一个有效的因素去解释经济增长的整个历史演进过程,而可以把经济增长看成是一个连贯的过程,这对我们研究经济增长来龙去脉的问题将大有裨益。本文在对经济增长过程的研究分析中,发现从人类需求的变化这一角度能很好的解释经济增长的整个历史演进过程。本文通过对经济增长历史进行总结分析发现了导致传统社会长时期经济停滞的原因更在于整个社会缺少一种对发展经济的共识,虽然社会上有一定的资本和技术积累,但社会政策经统治阶级和被统治阶级妥协达成的方向不在经济增长上,因此造成了无经济增长动机的社会难以产生经济增长行为。紧接着本文通过引入马斯洛需求层次理论解释了为何人类必然要经历这段长时期的经济停滞,是因为当时整体上较低的社会需求层次导致了社会必然会进入帝王社会,自发形成的制度锁定又阻碍了经济增长的发生,进一步延迟了人类需求层次的提升,形成了经济增长的长时间停滞。对于为何经济增长在经历一段高速增长之后必然要进入收敛阶段,也正是受人类需求变化的影响,当时代遇到高产出率的需求时,就表现出加速的样子,当需求变化,遇到低产出率的需求,就呈现出减速,即所谓的收敛。经济增长的收敛正是人类需求组合中物品的低产出增长率或不可计量性所致。
[Abstract]:Economic growth has experienced three stages in human history: stagnation, rapid economic growth and convergence of economic growth. If we want to use a main line to link up the entire historical process of economic growth to explain economic growth, then capital can not, nor can technology. The famous Needham riddle is the negation of capital and technology to explain economic growth. As to the decisive factors of economic growth, the mainstream economic growth theory has some interpretations as capital, some as technology, or human capital, but in fact, this is after economic growth shows stability at a certain stage. We look for the variables that have the highest correlation with growth data, and they are not persuasive in terms of explaining growth at different stages. The classical economic growth theory is mostly based on the western modern economic development experience, although it has a certain universality, but in different historical stages and regions, there are still some differences in explaining some problems. Therefore, if we can use an effective factor to explain the whole historical evolution of economic growth, and we can regard economic growth as a coherent process, it will be helpful for us to study the origin of economic growth. In the research and analysis of the process of economic growth, it is found that the change of human demand can explain the whole historical evolution of economic growth. By summarizing and analyzing the history of economic growth, this paper finds that the reason for the economic stagnation in the traditional society for a long time lies in the lack of a consensus on the development of the economy in the whole society, although there is a certain accumulation of capital and technology in the society. However, the direction of social policy reached by compromise between the ruling class and the ruling class is not on the economic growth, so it is difficult for the society without economic growth motive to produce economic growth behavior. Then, by introducing Maslow's hierarchy of needs theory, this paper explains why human beings must experience this long period of economic stagnation, because at that time, the lower level of social demand on the whole led to the inevitable entry of society into imperial society. The institutional lock of spontaneous formation hinders the occurrence of economic growth, further delays the upgrading of human demand, and forms a long period of stagnation of economic growth. As to why economic growth is bound to enter the convergence stage after experiencing a period of rapid growth, it is also affected by changes in human demand. When the times meet demand with high output rates, it appears to be accelerating, when demand changes. Meet the demand of low output rate, show deceleration, so-called convergence. The convergence of economic growth is due to the low output rate or non-quantifiable growth rate of goods in the human demand mix.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F124

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