批发零售业对经济增长的贡献分析

发布时间：2018-07-31 05:34

【摘要】：随着我国经济的不断发展,第三产业在国民经济中的比重持续增加,对经济增长的贡献也越来越大,但与国外发达国家比较,仍有较大的差距。如何发展服务业,最大程度地发挥服务业对经济增长的促进作用,对处于经济结构转型关键时期的中国来说是一个急需解决的问题。批发零售业作为第三产业的重要组成部分,它连接着生产和消费,是商品流通产业链的中间环节,承担着市场机制资源配置的重要任务,其自身的发展有利于壮大第三产业、扩大内需、优化经济结构、转变经济增长方式,发展批发零售业已成为推动经济增长动力转换、实现经济提质增效的一个有效途径。研究批发零售业对经济增长的贡献,将有助于国家制定合理的促进批发零售业发展的政策措施,使批发零售业得到快速发展。本文借鉴国内外关于批发零售业对经济增长贡献的研究成果,从相关概念和理论出发,采用我国1981年—2013年数据,运用协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等计量方法对批发零售业发展与经济增长的关系进行实证研究,同时引入菲德模型研究批发零售业对经济增长的间接贡献。研究表明:我国经济与批发零售业之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,且批发零售业发展与经济增长之间呈正相关关系;二者之间存在双向因果关系,即批发零售业发展是我国经济增长的格兰杰原因,反过来经济增长也是批发零售业发展的格兰杰原因;批发零售业对经济增长的间接贡献大于其直接贡献。作为对比,本文研究了美国批发零售业对经济增长的贡献,发现中美两国批发零售业与经济增长之间均存在长期均衡关系,批发零售业对经济增长的间接贡献均大于其直接贡献,批发零售业生产要素的边际生产率均小于其他部门生产要素的边际生产率。相比美国,我国批发零售业对经济增长的直接贡献和间接贡献均低于美国。在此基础之上,本文指出我国批发零售业存在的若干问题,并提出相应的建议,如重视批发零售业在城乡间的均衡发展、加快批发零售业信息化发展、提高从业人员素质、树立现代批发零售理念引导批发零售企业向连锁化、集团化、集群化发展等,以期为我国制定合理的批发零售业发展政策提供理论支持。本文的创新为:引入菲德模型分析批发零售业对经济增长的间接贡献,使得分析更全面,保证了研究的科学性和结论的可靠性;本文研究了美国批发零售业对经济增长的贡献,通过对比发现我国批发零售业的不足。本文不足之处:仅仅研究了批发零售业对经济增长的贡献,没有研究批发零售业发展对就业、产业结构、收入、消费者福利的影响,也就是没有扩展到对经济发展的贡献;仅仅研究了批发零售业对国民经济其他部门整体的外溢作用,而没有研究与某个具体的部门的关联关系。本文研究内容主要分为七章。第一章为绪论,主要介绍了本文研究背景、文献综述、意义、思路和方法以及本文的创新与不足。第二章在界定批发零售业、经济增长和菲德模型概念的基础上,介绍经济增长理论和流通经济理论。第三章介绍改革开放后我国批发零售业的发展情况。第四章首先从理论上分析了批发零售业对经济增长的促进作用,之后构建了"经济—批发零售业"模型,采用计量分析方法将我国经济经验数据应用于模型,对批发零售业对经济增长的直接贡献进行了实证检验,借鉴Feder模型的思想来分析批发零售业对经济增长的间接贡献。第五章分析了美国批发零售业对经济增长的直接贡献和间接贡献,并对中美做了对比分析。第六章分析我国批发零售业存在的问题并提出改善批发零售业进而促进经济增长的建议。最后—章对本文的内容进行了总结并介绍了未来的研究方向。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development of China's economy, the proportion of the third industry in the national economy continues to increase, and its contribution to economic growth is becoming more and more large, but compared with the developed countries, there is still a big gap. How to develop the service industry to maximize the role of the service industry to the economic growth, and to be in the key to the economic structure transformation As an important part of the third industry, the wholesale and retail industry, as an important part of the industry, connects the production and consumption, is the middle link of the commodity circulation industry chain, and bears the important task of the allocation of resources in the market mechanism. Its own development is beneficial to the expansion of the third industry, the expansion of domestic demand and the optimization of the economic structure. The transformation of the mode of economic growth and the development of wholesale and retail industry have become an effective way to promote the dynamic transformation of economic growth and achieve the efficiency of the economy. The study of the contribution of the wholesale and retail industry to economic growth will help the state to formulate reasonable policies and measures to promote the development of wholesale and retail industry and make the wholesale and retail industry develop rapidly. Based on the relevant concepts and theories, using the data from 1981 to 2013 in China, using the relevant concepts and theories, the paper uses the data from 1981 to 2013 in China, using the cointegration test, the Grainger causality test, the impulse response function and the variance decomposition to carry out an empirical study on the relationship between the development of wholesale and retail industry and the economic growth. At the same time, fad model is introduced to study the indirect contribution of wholesale and retail industry to economic growth. The study shows that there is a long-term and stable equilibrium relationship between China's economy and wholesale and retail industry, and there is a positive correlation between the development of wholesale and retail industry and economic growth, and there is a two-way causal relationship between the two, that is, the development of wholesale and retail industry is our country. The Grainger reason of economic growth, in turn, economic growth is also the Grainger reason for the development of wholesale and retail industry; the indirect contribution of wholesale and retail industry to economic growth is greater than its direct contribution. As a contrast, this paper studies the contribution of American wholesale and retail to economic growth, and finds that both the wholesale and retail trade and economic growth in the United States and China are all deposited. In the long-term equilibrium relationship, the indirect contribution of wholesale and retail industry to economic growth is greater than its direct contribution. The marginal productivity of the production factors of wholesale and retail is less than the marginal productivity of other sectors of production. Compared with the United States, the direct contribution and indirect contribution of our wholesale and retail industry to economic growth are lower than that of the United States. This paper points out some problems in China's wholesale and retail industry and puts forward some suggestions, such as the balanced development of wholesale and retail industry in urban and rural areas, accelerating the development of the wholesale and retail industry, improving the quality of the employees, and setting up a modern wholesale and retail concept to guide the wholesale and retail enterprises to chain, collectivize and cluster. It provides theoretical support for the development of a reasonable wholesale and retail development policy in China. The innovation of this paper is: introducing the fad model to analyze the indirect contribution of wholesale and retail industry to economic growth, making the analysis more comprehensive, ensuring the scientific nature of the research and the reliability of the conclusions. The insufficiency of the wholesale and retail industry in China is found. This paper is inadequacies: only studies the contribution of wholesale and retail to economic growth, and does not study the impact of wholesale and retail development on employment, industrial structure, income, and consumer welfare, that is, the contribution to economic development, and only the wholesale and retail trade is studied for the national economy. The article is divided into seven chapters. The first chapter is the introduction, which mainly introduces the background, literature review, significance, ideas and methods as well as the innovation and lack of this article. The second chapter defines the wholesale and retail industry, economic growth and the development of this article. On the basis of the concept of fad model, we introduce the theory of economic growth and the theory of circulation economy. The third chapter introduces the development of the wholesale and retail industry in China after the reform and opening up. The fourth chapter analyzes the promotion of the wholesale and retail industry to the economic growth in theory, and then constructs the model of "economy wholesale and retail", and adopts the econometric analysis method. The empirical data of China's economic experience is applied to the model, and the direct contribution of the wholesale and retail industry to the economic growth is empirically tested. The indirect contribution of the wholesale and retail industry to economic growth is analyzed with the idea of Feder model. The fifth chapter analyses the direct contribution and indirect contribution of the American wholesale and retail industry to the economic growth, and has made a study on China and the United States. The sixth chapter analyses the problems existing in China's wholesale and retail industry and puts forward suggestions to improve the wholesale and retail industry to promote economic growth. The last chapter summarizes the content of this article and introduces the future research direction.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F724;F124.1

【相似文献】