我国股市规模与经济增长的实证研究

发布时间：2018-08-20 09:02

【摘要】：在我国的股票市场不断的发展和逐渐的趋于成熟过程中,持续壮大的是股市的规模,然而股票市场所具备的稳定性所面临的挑战却逐渐加大,剧烈而频繁的股价波动情况导致更多的投资者不敢实施投资。所以,确保股票交易市场的健康平稳发展,就显得特别关键。经长期以来的理论探索和实践例子证明,股票的规模和经济的增长之间存在着十分紧密的联系。在众多的促成股市规模因素上,部分因素会较大的对经济的增长产生影响。经济的增长在一定程度上会推动股市规模的扩大。本文首先就理论的角度对股市的规模和经济的增长间存在关系进行论述,接着从股市规模宽泛的定义上,选择五个具备代表性的、全面的度量指标,分别是总市值、总上升企业数量、总股本、总上市股票数量、开户人数这五个指标,以这五个指标为基础采用统计描述方法对我国的股市规模最近十年时间内产生的变化以及发展的趋势进行分析,最后选择VAR模型对股市规模和经济增长间存在关系作出实证的分析。借助实证分析得到的结果可以看出,扩大的股市规模会在一定程度上对经济增长产生影响,选择的五点指标内,尤其是总的市值、总上市企业数量、开户人数产生的影响更加显著。
[Abstract]:In the process of continuous development and gradual maturation of stock market in our country, the scale of stock market is growing continuously, but the challenge of the stability of stock market is gradually increasing. Violent and frequent stock price fluctuations led to more investors dare not carry out investment. Therefore, ensure the healthy and smooth development of the stock market, it is particularly critical. Through a long period of theoretical exploration and practical examples, it is proved that there is a very close relationship between the scale of stock and the growth of economy. In many factors contributing to the size of the stock market, some factors will have a greater impact on economic growth. Economic growth will to some extent promote the expansion of the stock market. This paper first discusses the relationship between the scale of stock market and the growth of economy from the angle of theory, then from the broad definition of the scale of stock market, chooses five representative, comprehensive measures, which are the total market value, respectively. The five indicators are the total number of rising enterprises, the total share capital, the total number of listed stocks, and the number of accounts opened. On the basis of these five indicators, the paper analyzes the changes and trends of the stock market scale in China in the last ten years by using the statistical description method. Finally, VAR model is chosen to analyze the relationship between stock market scale and economic growth. With the help of the results of empirical analysis, we can see that the enlarged stock market size will have an impact on economic growth to some extent. Within the five selected indicators, especially the total market value, the total number of listed enterprises, The impact of the number of accounts opened is even more pronounced.
【学位授予单位】：对外经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F832.51

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