我国居民消费价格指数（CPI）影响因素的实证分析
发布时间：2018-08-22 09:00
【摘要】：消费者价格指数是一个主要的统计指标,反映一个国家或地区的宏观经济形势,是指针对商品和服务的价格消费的居民反应一定时间内的变化。它可以反映不同时期的生活成本的变化,而且也反映通货膨胀的程度。这一指标影响着政府、企业各自根据经济形势采取的政策,也直接影响了人们的生活水平。为了更好的研究我国经济发展对我国居民消费价格指数变化的影响,选取不同的因素进行不同层次的分析。利用1990-2014年我国居民消费价格指数数据,首先对我国居民消费的波动进行趋势分析,可以看出我国居民消费价格指数逐年上升。其次结合回归模型对影响我国居民消费价格指数的单因素国内生产总值、财政收支差额、货币供应量、资本形成及最终消费进行分析。通过对单因素的分析,可以看出各个因素对我国居民消费价格指数的影响程度。选取不同的因素进行不同层次的分析。我国居民消费价格指数与财政收支差额、货币供应量及资本形成有比较显著的线性关系。运用不同的方法对指标进行分析可以更加真实反映出实际影响情况。通过多种方法对影响我国居民消费价格指数进行多反面的分析,利用主成分分析根据分析模型内容识别出对我国居民消费价格指数变动的深一步变化影响,其中资本形成因素影响最大。论文目的是为了分析各种因素所带来对经济的影响,根据相应的影响来给予国家、政府及企业意见及建议。
[Abstract]:Consumer price index is a main statistical index, which reflects the macroeconomic situation of a country or region, and refers to the change of the consumption of goods and services within a certain period of time. It can reflect changes in the cost of living over time and also the extent of inflation. This indicator affects the government, enterprises according to the economic situation adopted policies, also directly affect people's living standards. In order to better study the impact of China's economic development on the change of consumer price index, different factors are selected for different levels of analysis. Based on the data of China's consumer price index from 1990 to 2014, the trend of the fluctuation of Chinese residents' consumption is analyzed firstly, and it can be seen that the consumer price index of our country is rising year by year. Secondly, combined with regression model, this paper analyzes the single factor GDP, fiscal balance, money supply, capital formation and final consumption which affect the consumer price index of our country. By analyzing the single factor, we can see the influence degree of each factor on the consumer price index of our country. Select different factors for different levels of analysis. There is a significant linear relationship between consumer price index and fiscal balance, money supply and capital formation. Using different methods to analyze the indicators can reflect the actual situation more truthfully. This paper analyzes the influence of consumer price index on the residents of our country by various methods, and uses principal component analysis to identify the influence of the change of consumer price index on the change of consumer price index in our country, according to the content of the analysis model. Among them, capital formation factor has the most influence. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence of various factors on the economy and to give suggestions and suggestions to the country, government and enterprises according to the corresponding influence.
【学位授予单位】：云南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F726
，
本文编号：2196623
[Abstract]:Consumer price index is a main statistical index, which reflects the macroeconomic situation of a country or region, and refers to the change of the consumption of goods and services within a certain period of time. It can reflect changes in the cost of living over time and also the extent of inflation. This indicator affects the government, enterprises according to the economic situation adopted policies, also directly affect people's living standards. In order to better study the impact of China's economic development on the change of consumer price index, different factors are selected for different levels of analysis. Based on the data of China's consumer price index from 1990 to 2014, the trend of the fluctuation of Chinese residents' consumption is analyzed firstly, and it can be seen that the consumer price index of our country is rising year by year. Secondly, combined with regression model, this paper analyzes the single factor GDP, fiscal balance, money supply, capital formation and final consumption which affect the consumer price index of our country. By analyzing the single factor, we can see the influence degree of each factor on the consumer price index of our country. Select different factors for different levels of analysis. There is a significant linear relationship between consumer price index and fiscal balance, money supply and capital formation. Using different methods to analyze the indicators can reflect the actual situation more truthfully. This paper analyzes the influence of consumer price index on the residents of our country by various methods, and uses principal component analysis to identify the influence of the change of consumer price index on the change of consumer price index in our country, according to the content of the analysis model. Among them, capital formation factor has the most influence. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence of various factors on the economy and to give suggestions and suggestions to the country, government and enterprises according to the corresponding influence.
【学位授予单位】：云南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F726
，
本文编号：2196623
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