我国地方政府性债务风险问题研究

发布时间：2018-08-25 19:28

【摘要】：地方政府性债务风险问题是影响着全世界经济稳定的一个重要因素。2008年国际金融危机爆发,为防止我国经济波动过于激烈,中央政府随即出台了"四万亿"的经济刺激计划方案。此时地方政府为了响应中央号召,选择筹措更多的资金来配合经济刺激计划。因此,自2009年开始,我国的地方政府债务风险问题就引起了广泛的关注。根据相关统计,截止到2013年6月底,我国地方政府性债务达到了 18万亿的规模。如此庞大的债务规模是否会引发新一轮的经济危机是我们无法回避的话题。根据我国《预算法》的规定,我国地方政府并没有权力自主发行债券,与此同时,地方的财政支出需求却在中央政府的政策刺激与不断夸大的经济规模的双重作用下不断增加,因此地方政府只能通过各种的融资渠道来筹措资金。所以地方政府债务规模不断扩大,然而与之相配套的监管与偿债制度建设却相对落后,债务风险的积累与风险控制措施的缺失形成了鲜明的对比,如此巨大的债务风险如果再不加以研究与监管的话,必然会对我国经济发展与社会稳定造成严重的影响。文章首先对主流的政府债务理论观点进行了梳理与列举,其中著名的公债理论与财政分权理论可以为我国治理地方政府性债务风险问题提供理论指导。其中,财政分权理论在我国的具体体现就是1994年的分税制改革。而分税制改革重要的一个方面就是中央和地方的事权与支出责任划分的问题。这其中地方政府支出责任的不断扩大但财政收入的有限性的情况尤为突出。文章第二部分对我国地方政府性债务规模与现状进行了较为详细的分析。即便考虑到我国各地区经济发展不平衡等一系列因素,但是我国地方债务总额逐年增长的趋势是不可否认的。虽然地方政府性债务在一定程度上满足了社会发展的资金需求,但是隐藏在背后的巨大债务规模绝对不容忽视。为了更准确的定量分析,文中采用了跨期预算约束模型来讨论地方政府的债务在长期下是否具有可持续性,进而对地方政府债务的风险预警提供政策依据。文章第三部分在借鉴国际丰富经验的基础上着重分析了我国地方政府债务规模不断累积的原因,这其中工业城镇化发展的客观要求与我国地方政府性债务配套制度不完善是最重要的两方面原因。从世界各国的经济发展进程来看,地方政府性债务规模的扩大是必然的趋势,因此如何以制度规范地方政府举债,从而保证政府的信誉与偿债能力便显得尤为重要。文章最后一部分针对当前的地方政府性债务风险提出了相应的解决对策。文中认为,首先必须通过改善财政收支结构来合理提高地方政府的财政收入,提高地方政府的偿债能力。其次应该尽快以法律的形式确认地方政府自行举债的行为,并使其账目公开透明,易于监管。最后,必须要完善地方政府的融资渠道与监管体系,并将考核机制与评价机制落实到实处。
[Abstract]:The problem of local government debt risk is an important factor affecting the world's economic stability. In 2008, when the international financial crisis broke out, the central government issued a "four trillion" economic stimulus plan to prevent China's economic fluctuations from becoming too intense. At this time, local governments chose to raise more funds in response to the call of the central government. Therefore, since 2009, the issue of local government debt risk has aroused widespread concern. According to relevant statistics, by the end of June 2013, the local government debt of our country has reached 18 trillion yuan. Whether such a huge debt scale will cause a new round of economic crisis is impossible for us to return. According to the Budget Law, local governments have no right to issue bonds independently. At the same time, local fiscal expenditure demand is increasing under the dual effects of the central government's policy stimulus and the constantly exaggerated economic scale. Therefore, local governments can only raise funds through various financing channels. Therefore, the scale of local government debt is expanding constantly, but the corresponding supervision and repayment system construction is relatively backward, the accumulation of debt risk and the lack of risk control measures have formed a sharp contrast, such a huge debt risk if not studied and supervised, will inevitably lead to China's economic development and social stability. Firstly, this paper combs and enumerates the mainstream theories of government debt, among which the famous theories of public debt and fiscal decentralization can provide theoretical guidance for the governance of local government debt risk in China. One of the most important aspects of the reform of the tax-sharing system is the division of powers and expenditure responsibilities between the central and local governments. Considering a series of factors such as unbalanced economic development in various regions of China, the trend of annual growth of local debt is undeniable. Although local government debt meets the financial needs of social development to a certain extent, the huge debt scale hidden behind it can not be ignored. Quantitative analysis, this paper uses the intertemporal budget constraint model to discuss whether the local government debt is sustainable in the long run, and then provides policy basis for the risk early warning of local government debt. From the perspective of the economic development process in the world, the expansion of the scale of local government debt is an inevitable trend, so how to regulate local government debt by system, so as to ensure the government's trust The last part of the article puts forward the corresponding solutions to the current local government debt risk. The article holds that first of all, we must improve the structure of fiscal revenue and expenditure to reasonably increase the local government's revenue and improve the local government's solvency. Secondly, we should take the form of law as soon as possible. Finally, it is necessary to improve the financing channels and supervision system of local governments, and implement the assessment mechanism and evaluation mechanism.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F812.5

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