“一带一路”沿线国家服务贸易出口技术复杂度的经济增长效应研究
发布时间：2018-08-29 20:01
【摘要】：当前,伴随着世界经济结构调整和经济一体化进程的不断加快,特别是信息科学技术的迅猛发展及全球贸易规则的建立和完善,服务贸易正经历着黄金发展时段。根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)和世界贸易组织(WTO)的统计,2000年以来,服务贸易迎来了有史以来最为快速的新增长时期:2004年全球服务贸易出口总额突破2万亿美元大关,2007年突破3万亿美元大关,2011年突破4万亿美元大关,2014年增长到49404亿美元;除金融危机后出现负增长以外,2000-2014年间服务贸易出口保持了年均增长近10%的速率。服务贸易已发展成为全球贸易竞争的焦点领域,各国服务贸易竞争力的大小已经成为衡量一国国内经济发展水平和国际竞争力大小的决定性指标。随着服务业及其贸易战略地位的提升,国内外学者们开始对服务贸易与经济增长的相关性进行探索和检验,其中服务贸易出口技术复杂度的经济效应作为该研究方向下较为前沿和热点的研究内容,对其进行探究具有重要的理论和现实意义。与此同时,世界经济格局正发生着复杂而深刻的变化:WTO贸易规则谈判失败后,各国纷纷加快了寻求区域合作的步伐;美国构建了跨太平洋伙伴关系协定(TPP)和跨大西洋贸易和投资伙伴协定(TTIP),企图建立亚、欧两大区域的贸易关系新规则以重新攫取世界经济主导权;国际投资和贸易格局正酝酿着深刻变化。在此背景下,2013年9月7日,习近平主席在哈萨克斯坦的重要讲话中首次提出了共建"丝绸之路经济带"的战略规划;同年10月,习近平主席在印度尼西亚国会上明确提出建设"21世纪海上丝绸之路"的倡议。"一带一路"是我国倡导提出的促进沿线各国开放合作的宏大经济战略,其主旨在于通过推进沿线国家间的交流磋商,在基础设施互联互通、产业投资、资源开发等领域项目合作的基础上,开展更广泛和深层次的区域合作。自该战略被提出以来,学界及相关政策部门决策人的目光便锁定在如何充分利用该战略来促进区域内的产能合作及基础设施建设,从而以要素和产品流动来带动区域内产业和技术升级等领域,为此,研究的对象也多为制造业和具体的区域合作项目。然而,在全球服务贸易竞相发展、各国不断出台相关措施促进国内服务部门升级和产业结构优化的背景下,"一带一路"不应只片面强调基础设施和产能合作,应加快培育新的经济增长点和竞争合作点——区域内服务贸易的合作与升级。本文立足于全球服务业兴起和"一带一路"区域合作框架的重要战略地位,在梳理了国内外相关研究成果和定性分析了"一带一路"沿线亚洲国家服务贸易发展现状的基础上,借鉴Hausmann et al.(2007)的方法,构建了一个服务贸易出口技术复杂度指数的测算体系,并利用2005-2014年间"一带一路"沿线15个亚洲国家的跨国数据为样本,计算了各国服务贸易的出口技术复杂度,从而明确了当前各国的服务贸易出口技术复杂度处于较低水平、但服务贸易出口技术复杂度正趋于逐步上升且产品结构不断优化的发展现状;与此同时,通过建立计量实证模型,运用固定效应面板回归和广义矩估计等方法对该15个国家的服务贸易出口技术复杂度的经济增长效应进行检验,发现在样本区间内,样本国家的服务贸易出口技术复杂度的提升与经济增长之间表现出显著的正相关性,即便在将其他解释变量作为控制变量纳入模型以后,该结论依然成立,证实了"服务贸易出口技术复杂度提升越快,国民经济也将以更高的速率增长"这一说法在"一带一路"沿线国家的适用性;最后,本文以实证结果为支点,提出切实而可行的建议,为促进"一带一路"国家服务贸易发展进而提升各国经济发展水平和区域国家竞争力提供一些有益的参考。
[Abstract]:At present, with the adjustment of world economic structure and the acceleration of economic integration, especially the rapid development of information science and technology and the establishment and improvement of Global trade rules, service trade is experiencing a golden period of development. Yi ushered in the fastest new period of growth ever: in 2004, the total value of Global trade in services exceeded the $2 trillion barrier, in 2007 exceeded the $3 trillion barrier, in 2011 exceeded the $4 trillion barrier, in 2014 increased to $494.4 billion; in addition to the negative growth after the financial crisis, service trade exports maintained in 2000-2014. The average annual growth rate is nearly 10%. Trade in services has become the focus of Global trade competition. The competitiveness of trade in services has become a decisive indicator of a country's domestic economic development level and international competitiveness. The correlation between trade and economic growth has been explored and tested. The economic effects of the technical complexity of service trade export, as a frontier and hotspot in the research direction, have important theoretical and practical significance. After the failure of the negotiation of the Easy Rules, many countries have accelerated the pace of seeking regional cooperation; the United States has constructed the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) and the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement (TTIP) in an attempt to establish new rules for trade relations between Asia and Europe in order to regain the dominance of the world economy; the pattern of international investment and trade is under consideration. Brewing profound changes. Against this background, in September 7, 2013, President Xi Jinping made the first strategic plan for building a "Silk Road Economic Belt" in an important speech in Kazakhstan. In October of the same year, President Xi Jinping made a clear proposal in the Indonesia parliament to build the "maritime Silk Road in twenty-first Century". The grand economic strategy to promote open cooperation among the countries along the line proposed by the director aims to promote wider and deeper regional cooperation on the basis of project cooperation in the fields of infrastructure interconnection, industrial investment, and resource development by promoting exchanges and consultations among the countries along the line. Policy-makers focus on how to make full use of the strategy to promote regional capacity cooperation and infrastructure construction, so as to drive the upgrading of industries and technologies within the region by the flow of factors and products. For this reason, the research object is mostly manufacturing and specific regional cooperation projects. With the development of various countries and the continuous introduction of relevant measures to promote the upgrading of domestic service sectors and the optimization of industrial structure, the "one belt and one road" should not only emphasize unilaterally the cooperation of infrastructure and production capacity, but also speed up the cultivation of new economic growth points and competition cooperation points - the cooperation and upgrading of service trade within the region. The important strategic position of the rise of the industry and the framework of the "one belt and one way" regional cooperation framework, on the basis of combing relevant research results at home and abroad, and qualitatively analyzing the current situation of the development of the service trade in Asian countries along the "one belt and one road", and drawing on the method of Hausmann et al. (2007), has constructed a measurement system for the export technology complexity index of the service trade. Taking the cross-country data of 15 Asian countries along the "one belt and one road" for 2005-2014 years as samples, the export technology complexity of each country's service trade is calculated, thus making clear that the technology complexity of export trade in services is at a low level, but the complexity of export trade in service trade is gradually increasing and the product structure is constantly changing. At the same time, through the establishment of econometric empirical model, using fixed-effect panel regression and generalized moment estimation to test the economic growth effect of the technical complexity of service trade export in 15 countries, we find that in the sample interval, the technical complexity of service trade export in the sample countries has improved and the economy has improved. There is a significant positive correlation between economic growth and even after taking other explanatory variables as control variables into the model, the conclusion is still established, which confirms the applicability of "the faster the export technology complexity of service trade increases and the national economy will grow at a higher rate". Based on the empirical results, the paper puts forward practical and feasible suggestions, which will provide some useful references for promoting the development of service trade in the "one belt and one road" country and further enhancing the economic development level and regional competitiveness of other countries.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F752.68
[Abstract]:At present, with the adjustment of world economic structure and the acceleration of economic integration, especially the rapid development of information science and technology and the establishment and improvement of Global trade rules, service trade is experiencing a golden period of development. Yi ushered in the fastest new period of growth ever: in 2004, the total value of Global trade in services exceeded the $2 trillion barrier, in 2007 exceeded the $3 trillion barrier, in 2011 exceeded the $4 trillion barrier, in 2014 increased to $494.4 billion; in addition to the negative growth after the financial crisis, service trade exports maintained in 2000-2014. The average annual growth rate is nearly 10%. Trade in services has become the focus of Global trade competition. The competitiveness of trade in services has become a decisive indicator of a country's domestic economic development level and international competitiveness. The correlation between trade and economic growth has been explored and tested. The economic effects of the technical complexity of service trade export, as a frontier and hotspot in the research direction, have important theoretical and practical significance. After the failure of the negotiation of the Easy Rules, many countries have accelerated the pace of seeking regional cooperation; the United States has constructed the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) and the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement (TTIP) in an attempt to establish new rules for trade relations between Asia and Europe in order to regain the dominance of the world economy; the pattern of international investment and trade is under consideration. Brewing profound changes. Against this background, in September 7, 2013, President Xi Jinping made the first strategic plan for building a "Silk Road Economic Belt" in an important speech in Kazakhstan. In October of the same year, President Xi Jinping made a clear proposal in the Indonesia parliament to build the "maritime Silk Road in twenty-first Century". The grand economic strategy to promote open cooperation among the countries along the line proposed by the director aims to promote wider and deeper regional cooperation on the basis of project cooperation in the fields of infrastructure interconnection, industrial investment, and resource development by promoting exchanges and consultations among the countries along the line. Policy-makers focus on how to make full use of the strategy to promote regional capacity cooperation and infrastructure construction, so as to drive the upgrading of industries and technologies within the region by the flow of factors and products. For this reason, the research object is mostly manufacturing and specific regional cooperation projects. With the development of various countries and the continuous introduction of relevant measures to promote the upgrading of domestic service sectors and the optimization of industrial structure, the "one belt and one road" should not only emphasize unilaterally the cooperation of infrastructure and production capacity, but also speed up the cultivation of new economic growth points and competition cooperation points - the cooperation and upgrading of service trade within the region. The important strategic position of the rise of the industry and the framework of the "one belt and one way" regional cooperation framework, on the basis of combing relevant research results at home and abroad, and qualitatively analyzing the current situation of the development of the service trade in Asian countries along the "one belt and one road", and drawing on the method of Hausmann et al. (2007), has constructed a measurement system for the export technology complexity index of the service trade. Taking the cross-country data of 15 Asian countries along the "one belt and one road" for 2005-2014 years as samples, the export technology complexity of each country's service trade is calculated, thus making clear that the technology complexity of export trade in services is at a low level, but the complexity of export trade in service trade is gradually increasing and the product structure is constantly changing. At the same time, through the establishment of econometric empirical model, using fixed-effect panel regression and generalized moment estimation to test the economic growth effect of the technical complexity of service trade export in 15 countries, we find that in the sample interval, the technical complexity of service trade export in the sample countries has improved and the economy has improved. There is a significant positive correlation between economic growth and even after taking other explanatory variables as control variables into the model, the conclusion is still established, which confirms the applicability of "the faster the export technology complexity of service trade increases and the national economy will grow at a higher rate". Based on the empirical results, the paper puts forward practical and feasible suggestions, which will provide some useful references for promoting the development of service trade in the "one belt and one road" country and further enhancing the economic development level and regional competitiveness of other countries.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F752.68
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前10条
1 温丽琴;卢进勇;;“一带一路”战略与山西对外投资产业布局[J];国际经济合作;2016年03期
2 朱廷s，
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