基于变系数CD生产函数的省域GDP数据准确性评估

发布时间：2018-08-30 14:08

【摘要】：改革开放以来,我国经济持续稳定地快速增长。2008年之后受到全球金融危机的影响,国际经济低迷,而我国的经济增长仍然良好。我国经济高速增长原因非常复杂,导致有些学者质疑近20年来有关我国政府统计数据质量。GDP数据作为衡量经济增长的重要指标,在新常态经济下GDP增长率成为人们关注的焦点。新常态经济下,我国的工作重点是调整经济结构、转变增长方式,准确的GDP数据是合理、可靠的宏观经济政策制定的基础。GDP数据准确性评估仍然至关重要。现有文献更多地关注我国国家的GDP数据质量评估,有关我国省域GDP数据质量评估的研究相对较少,其评估方法与全国GDP数据质量评估方法也不尽相同。从局部、经济理论和动态发展等交叉视角,改进CD生产函数的统计模型形式,使其体现生产要素的省域差异和年度差异,以便适用于省域GDP数据准确性评估。本文首先将我国的省域划分为东、中、西三个地区,分别建立变系数CD生产函数,利用2003-2012年的样本数据对模型进行参数估计,对模型拟合结果的统计意义、经济意义进行分析。从资本产出弹性系数在2003-2012年的变化趋势、省域GDP数据的残差异常值来评估2003-2012年的省域GDP数据准确性。通过模型拟合得到的各地区的生产要素投入产出弹性系数和各省域的异常值的动态识别方法,对我国各省域GDP数据准确性的评估结果表明,各地区生产要素的弹性系数在2003-2012年的变化基本平稳,各省域GDP数据残差的异常值所占比例很小,我国省域GDP数据基本符合我国的经济发展规律,准确性在总体上较好,只有少数省域年度GDP高估的可能性大。因而,基于本文的分析方法,我国省域GDP数据基本准确可靠。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has continued to grow steadily and rapidly. After 2008, the global financial crisis affected the international economic downturn, but China's economic growth is still good. The reasons for the rapid economic growth in China are very complicated, which leads some scholars to question that the quality of government statistical data, as an important indicator to measure economic growth, has become the focus of attention in the new normal economy. In the new normal economy, the emphasis of China's work is to adjust the economic structure and change the growth mode. Accurate GDP data is the basis of sound and reliable macroeconomic policy. The existing literature pays more attention to the GDP data quality assessment in our country. The research on the GDP data quality assessment in our province is relatively few, and the evaluation method is different from the national GDP data quality assessment method. From the cross-angle of local, economic theory and dynamic development, the statistical model of CD production function is improved to reflect the provincial and annual differences of factors of production, so that it can be used to evaluate the accuracy of provincial GDP data. In this paper, the province of our country is divided into three regions: east, middle and west, and the variable coefficient CD production function is established respectively. The model parameters are estimated by using the sample data from 2003 to 2012, and the statistical significance and economic significance of the model fitting results are analyzed. The accuracy of provincial GDP data from 2003 to 2012 is evaluated from the trend of capital output elasticity coefficient from 2003 to 2012 and the outliers of provincial GDP data. Through the dynamic identification method of input-output elasticity coefficient of production factors and outliers in each province, the accuracy of GDP data in various provinces of China is evaluated. The coefficient of elasticity of production factors in various regions changed steadily in 2003-2012, and the proportion of outliers of GDP data in each province was very small. The provincial GDP data of our country basically accord with the law of economic development of our country, and the accuracy is good on the whole. Only a few provinces are likely to overestimate annual GDP. Therefore, based on the analysis method in this paper, the provincial GDP data of our country are basically accurate and reliable.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F224;F127

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