生育政策调整对职工基本养老保险基金的影响研究

发布时间：2018-09-03 06:06

【摘要】：我国快速的人口老龄化对城镇企业职工基本养老保险基金的财务可持续性造成巨大的压力已为学界所共识。在生育政策调整之前,一些研究认为放开生育限制、提升生育水平,能够有效应对人口老龄化。那么在生育政策调整之后,“全面二孩”政策正式落地的现实背景下,政策调整究竟能够对人口老龄化产生多大的影响,进而能够对基本养老保险基金财务状况产生多大的影响效应,这些需要科学的人口预测和基金收支预测为依据来回答。本文通过使用第五次人口普查、第六次人口普查数据、历年中国统计年鉴以及国民经济与社会发展统计公报、人力资源和社会保障事业发展统计公报等既有数据,并在对相关数据做出调整的基础上,运用人口预测方法和精算建模方法对“全面二孩”政策调整影响城镇企业职工基本养老保险基金财务状况的效应进行了实证研究。研究表明:第一,“全面二孩”政策实施可以有效缓解人口老龄化进程,优化人口结构,2016-2065年间政策调整生育率低、中和高方案下人口老龄化水平相比基准方案的下降区间分别为0.04%-2.2%、0.05%-5.96%和0.06%-8.12%;第二,维持现行生育政策不变情况下,人口老龄化危机会对职工基本养老保险基金的可持续运行造成严重挑战,到预测期末累计缺口达到51万亿元;第三,“全面二孩”政策实施能够改善社会统筹基金财务收支状况,政策调整生育率低、中和高方案下基金收入相比基准方案增长区间分别为0.37%-8.47%、0.46%-22.96%和0.56%-32.67%,同时年度性缺口和累计缺口均有不同程度的减少;第四,生育水平变动对基本养老保险基金收支的影响具有滞后性。此外,先前国内虽然已有学者研究过调整生育政策对公共养老金的影响,但是研究大多发生在单独政策尚未显现、全面二孩政策“尚无时间表”的情境之下,所以在全面二孩政策落地之后,一些假设条件都已经不符合现实背景的变化。故本文将“全面二孩”政策实施对我国城镇职工基本养老保险基金可持续性的结合起来,构建生育政策调整和基本养老保险基金的联系具有一定的创新性。
[Abstract]:The rapid aging of the population in China has caused tremendous pressure on the financial sustainability of the basic old-age insurance fund for urban enterprise workers. Before the fertility policy adjustment, some studies believe that liberalizing fertility restrictions and raising fertility level can effectively cope with the aging of the population. Well, after the adjustment of the fertility policy, under the realistic background of the "comprehensive two-child" policy falling to the ground, how will the policy adjustment have an impact on the aging population? Then it can affect the financial situation of the basic pension insurance fund, which needs scientific population forecast and fund income and expenditure forecast as the basis to answer. By using the data of the fifth census, the sixth census, the statistical yearbook of China over the years, the statistical bulletin on national economic and social development, and the statistical bulletin on the development of human resources and social security, On the basis of adjusting the relevant data, this paper makes an empirical study on the effect of the adjustment of "all-around two-child" policy on the financial status of the basic pension insurance fund of urban enterprises by using population forecasting method and actuarial modeling method. The results show that: first, the implementation of the "comprehensive two-child" policy can effectively alleviate the aging process of the population and optimize the population structure. In 2016-2065, the policy adjusts the fertility rate to a low level. The decline in population ageing levels compared to the benchmark programme under the medium and high schemes is 0.04-2.2 per cent and 0.05-5.96 per cent and 0.06-8.12 respectively; second, while the current fertility policy remains unchanged, The aging population crisis will pose a serious challenge to the sustainable operation of the basic old-age insurance fund for workers and staff, and the cumulative gap will reach 51 trillion yuan by the end of the forecast period. Third, The implementation of the "comprehensive two-child" policy can improve the financial income and expenditure of the social fund as a whole, and the policy adjustment has a low fertility rate. The growth range of fund income is 0.37-8.470.46-22.96% and 0.56-32.67, respectively. At the same time, the annual gap and accumulative gap are all reduced in varying degrees; fourth, the influence of fertility level change on the income and expenditure of basic pension insurance fund is lagging behind. In addition, although previous domestic scholars have studied the impact of the adjustment of birth policy on public pensions, most of the studies have taken place in situations where separate policies have not yet emerged and the overall two-child policy has "no timetable". Therefore, after the two-child policy, some assumptions have not been in line with the real background changes. Therefore, this paper combines the implementation of the "comprehensive two-child" policy with the sustainability of the basic pension insurance fund for urban workers in China, and constructs the relationship between the adjustment of the fertility policy and the basic pension insurance fund.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F842.67

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