消费税对日本经济增长的影响分析

发布时间：2018-09-07 20:03

【摘要】：自20世纪90年代初日本泡沫经济破灭以来,经济持续低迷,以直接税为主的税收体系制约了日本政府财政收入的提高,加之老龄化带来的养老与医疗支出不断增加,日本财政入不敷出,赤字严重。为摆脱困境,日本政府逐渐推行税制改革,降低所得税等直接税,增加消费税以增加财政收入。日本实行的消费税为一般意义上的消费税,即以所有最终消费品和消费行为作为课税对象,并且对所有征税对象实行相同税率。此种消费税税基普遍、征收简易,有利于政府提高财政收入。但税收对经济影响路径复杂,一方面直接作用于生产者和消费者,影响投资和消费行为,进而影响经济增长；另一方面政府通过公共支出,调节资源配置和经济运行,间接作用于宏观经济增长。为探究日本增加消费税对经济的实际影响效果及程度,笔者通过理论和实证方法进行了分析,力求做出切合实际的判断,同时对比中国当前经济和税收体系存在的问题,提出可行的建议。首先,文章分析了日本消费税增税的原因,经济长期低迷,税收收入减少；国债规模大,债务负担沉重；少子老龄化加剧财政负担等三方面原因促使日本改革税收体制,消费税以其自身的优势和特点成为了税制改革的首选。其次,文章‘结合经济增长理论与税收对经济增长作用的机理,采用数理分析和计量分析相结合的方法,分析了日本消费税增税的经济效果。结论表明：消费税增税之初,因物价水平提高等因素会对消费产生一定的抑制作用,而长期看,消费税增税可以支持政府对养老、医疗、基建等加大投入,利于经济增长,所以消费税收入与经济增长可以相互促进,有正向相关关系。最后,笔者通过分析中国的老龄化问题和经济现状,提出了日本消费税改革对中国财税体系改革的借鉴之处。
[Abstract]:Since the bursting of Japan's bubble economy in the early 1990s, the economy has been in a doldrums. The tax system, which is dominated by direct taxes, has restricted the increase of the Japanese government's fiscal revenue, as well as the increasing old-age pension and medical expenditure brought about by the aging of the Japanese government. Japan's budget is more than it needs, and its deficit is serious. In order to get rid of the predicament, the Japanese government has gradually carried out tax reform, reduced direct taxes such as income tax, and increased consumption tax to increase fiscal revenue. The consumption tax implemented in Japan is the consumption tax in the general sense, that is, all final consumer goods and consumption behavior are taxed, and all tax objects are taxed at the same rate. This consumption tax base is universal, easy to collect, and conducive to raising government revenue. On the one hand, it has a direct effect on producers and consumers, and on the other hand, it affects investment and consumption behavior, thus affecting economic growth. On the other hand, the government regulates the allocation of resources and economic operation through public expenditure. Indirect effects on macroeconomic growth. In order to explore the effect and extent of Japan's increasing consumption tax on the economy, the author makes an analysis through theoretical and empirical methods, and tries to make a realistic judgment, and at the same time compares the existing problems in China's current economy and tax system. Put forward feasible suggestions. First of all, the article analyzes the reasons for the tax increase in Japan's consumption tax, the long-term economic downturn, the decrease of tax revenue, the large scale of national debt, the heavy debt burden, the aging of minority children and the exacerbation of the financial burden, etc., which prompted Japan to reform its tax system. Consumption tax with its own advantages and characteristics has become the first choice of tax reform. Secondly, combining the theory of economic growth with the mechanism of tax on economic growth, this paper analyzes the economic effect of Japan's consumption tax increase by means of mathematical analysis and econometric analysis. The conclusion shows that at the beginning of the tax increase of consumption tax, some factors, such as higher price level, will have a certain restraining effect on consumption. In the long run, the tax increase of consumption tax can support the government to increase investment in pension, medical treatment, infrastructure and so on, which is conducive to economic growth. So consumption tax revenue and economic growth can promote each other, there is a positive correlation. Finally, by analyzing the aging problem and the current economic situation in China, the author puts forward the lessons that Japan's consumption tax reform can bring to the reform of China's fiscal and taxation system.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F813.13

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