区域信息化水平影响出口复杂度的机理与实证研究
发布时间：2018-11-05 15:22
【摘要】：在信息经济高速发展的时代,信息化水平已成为推动国家、地区经济发展和贸易增长的重要力量。外向型产业的转型升级、出口附加值的提升依赖于出口商品复杂度的水平提高。探究信息化水平与贸易发展尤其是出口复杂度的关系显得既有理论价值更具有重要的现实意义。而现有研究少有信息化水平与出口复杂度的关系研究,因此探究信息化水平影响出口复杂度的机理与实证分析,对中国顺利实现经济贸易转型具有重要的理论价值与现实意义。文章基于中国省际层面视角探析信息化水平对出口复杂度的影响。对国内外文献进行总结分析的基础上,对现有信息化水平和出口复杂度测度方法的适用范围和优缺点进行系统比较。针对中国各地区的特殊情况建立新的信息化水平测度指标体系,使该体系具有普遍适应性,并根据国研网提供的2006-2014年出口贸易数据计算出口复杂度指标,为避免“统计假象”,建立新的测算方法以剔除中间品得到更为准确的指标结果,最后就指标结果进行横纵向地分析研究。在理论分析环节,本文在企业异质性分析框架基础上,探讨了信息化影响出口复杂度的微观机制,并进一步探究信息化如何通过直接内化效应和间接外化效应两种渠道影响出口复杂度。在实证分析部分文章分别从全国和地区层面出发,利用省际面板数据模型研究信息化水平对出口复杂度的影响,并通过分位数回归探讨不同水平出口复杂度受信息化影响程度的大小。通过实证分析得出结论：(1)我国整体信息化水平的上升会使贸易条件改善,但是各个地区有较大差异,东部地区信息化水平和出口复杂度均最高,西部地区暂时落后,从趋势上发现我国整体呈齐头并进的升级模式,中西部地区正在加速向东部地区追赶。(2)信息化水平对出口复杂度的促进作用存在“天花板效应”。即信息化的促进作用在出口复杂度中等水平达到峰值,形成要素累积推进的加速阶段。而在低水平出口复杂度环境下,要素匹配度低、起始成本高等原因造成一定的抑制性,而在高水平阶段,边际要素递减效应的存在使得信息化水平无法发挥最大价值。(3)经济发展水平仍然是对出口复杂度提升的主要推动力。信息化要素虽然对出口复杂度存在正向的促进效应,但是贡献度还较低,这与我国目前信息技术水平、信息消费能力、创新发展等有直接的影响。基于上述分析,本文提出相应的政策建议：进一步调整产业结构,以信息产业为出口贸易主要推动力引领经济增长；统筹区域间信息化发展,提升全民素质；建立信息化官方统计体系；认清区域出口复杂度的差异性,实现区域均衡发展；推进高技术含量产品出口贸易,实现产业升级。
[Abstract]:In the era of rapid development of information economy, the level of informatization has become an important force to promote national and regional economic development and trade growth. The transformation and upgrading of export-oriented industries and the increase of export value-added depend on the level of complexity of export commodities. It is of great practical significance to explore the relationship between informatization level and trade development, especially export complexity. However, there are few studies on the relationship between the level of informatization and the complexity of export. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to explore the mechanism and empirical analysis of the level of informatization that affects the complexity of export, which is of great theoretical value and practical significance for the smooth realization of economic and trade transformation in China. Based on the interprovincial perspective of China, this paper analyzes the impact of informatization level on export complexity. Based on the summarization and analysis of domestic and foreign literature, this paper makes a systematic comparison of the scope of application, advantages and disadvantages of the existing measurement methods of informatization level and export complexity. According to the special situation of different regions in China, a new information level measurement index system is established, which makes the system have universal adaptability, and calculates the export complexity index according to the export trade data from 2006 to 2014 provided by the National Research Network. In order to avoid "statistical illusion", a new calculation method was established to get more accurate index results by eliminating intermediate products. Finally, the index results were analyzed and studied horizontally and vertically. In the theoretical analysis, based on the framework of enterprise heterogeneity analysis, this paper discusses the micro mechanism of informatization influencing export complexity. And further explore how informatization affects export complexity through direct internalization effect and indirect externalization effect. In the empirical analysis part of the article from the national and regional level, using inter-provincial panel data model to study the impact of information level on export complexity, Through quantile regression, the degree of influence of different levels of export complexity affected by information technology is discussed. The conclusions are as follows: (1) the rise of the overall informatization level in China will improve the terms of trade, but there are great differences among different regions, the information level and export complexity of the eastern region are the highest, and the western region lags behind temporarily. It is found from the trend that our country as a whole is advancing in parallel, and the central and western regions are accelerating to catch up to the east. (2) there is a "ceiling effect" in promoting the export complexity caused by the level of information technology. That is, the promotion of information technology reaches the peak at the medium level of export complexity, forming the accelerated stage of factor accumulation. However, in the environment of low level export complexity, the factor matching degree is low, the starting cost is high and so on, and at the high level stage, the factor matching degree is low and the initial cost is high. Because of the decreasing effect of marginal factors, the level of informatization can not play the greatest value. (3) the level of economic development is still the main driving force to increase the complexity of export. Although the information elements have a positive promoting effect on the export complexity, the contribution is still low, which has a direct impact on the current level of information technology, information consumption ability, innovation and development in China. Based on the above analysis, this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions: to further adjust the industrial structure, to take the information industry as the main driving force of export trade to lead the economic growth, to plan the development of information technology among regions, and to improve the quality of the whole people; Establish the official statistics system of information technology; recognize the difference of the complexity of regional export, realize the balanced development of the region; promote the export trade of high-tech products and realize the upgrading of the industry.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F752.62
本文编号：2312481
[Abstract]:In the era of rapid development of information economy, the level of informatization has become an important force to promote national and regional economic development and trade growth. The transformation and upgrading of export-oriented industries and the increase of export value-added depend on the level of complexity of export commodities. It is of great practical significance to explore the relationship between informatization level and trade development, especially export complexity. However, there are few studies on the relationship between the level of informatization and the complexity of export. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to explore the mechanism and empirical analysis of the level of informatization that affects the complexity of export, which is of great theoretical value and practical significance for the smooth realization of economic and trade transformation in China. Based on the interprovincial perspective of China, this paper analyzes the impact of informatization level on export complexity. Based on the summarization and analysis of domestic and foreign literature, this paper makes a systematic comparison of the scope of application, advantages and disadvantages of the existing measurement methods of informatization level and export complexity. According to the special situation of different regions in China, a new information level measurement index system is established, which makes the system have universal adaptability, and calculates the export complexity index according to the export trade data from 2006 to 2014 provided by the National Research Network. In order to avoid "statistical illusion", a new calculation method was established to get more accurate index results by eliminating intermediate products. Finally, the index results were analyzed and studied horizontally and vertically. In the theoretical analysis, based on the framework of enterprise heterogeneity analysis, this paper discusses the micro mechanism of informatization influencing export complexity. And further explore how informatization affects export complexity through direct internalization effect and indirect externalization effect. In the empirical analysis part of the article from the national and regional level, using inter-provincial panel data model to study the impact of information level on export complexity, Through quantile regression, the degree of influence of different levels of export complexity affected by information technology is discussed. The conclusions are as follows: (1) the rise of the overall informatization level in China will improve the terms of trade, but there are great differences among different regions, the information level and export complexity of the eastern region are the highest, and the western region lags behind temporarily. It is found from the trend that our country as a whole is advancing in parallel, and the central and western regions are accelerating to catch up to the east. (2) there is a "ceiling effect" in promoting the export complexity caused by the level of information technology. That is, the promotion of information technology reaches the peak at the medium level of export complexity, forming the accelerated stage of factor accumulation. However, in the environment of low level export complexity, the factor matching degree is low, the starting cost is high and so on, and at the high level stage, the factor matching degree is low and the initial cost is high. Because of the decreasing effect of marginal factors, the level of informatization can not play the greatest value. (3) the level of economic development is still the main driving force to increase the complexity of export. Although the information elements have a positive promoting effect on the export complexity, the contribution is still low, which has a direct impact on the current level of information technology, information consumption ability, innovation and development in China. Based on the above analysis, this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions: to further adjust the industrial structure, to take the information industry as the main driving force of export trade to lead the economic growth, to plan the development of information technology among regions, and to improve the quality of the whole people; Establish the official statistics system of information technology; recognize the difference of the complexity of regional export, realize the balanced development of the region; promote the export trade of high-tech products and realize the upgrading of the industry.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F752.62
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