开放经济下汇率制度选择与宏观经济绩效分析
发布时间：2018-11-24 14:01
【摘要】：汇率是一国货币对别国货币的比价,在一国的宏观经济运行中具有重要的作用。汇率可以从多个方面反映出一国的经济运行的总体状况,并且汇率同时作为货币政策的中介目标,对宏观经济的调节和最终目标的实现也起着十分重要的作用。本文从一国汇率制度的形成机理着手,先是介绍了国际经济发展史上汇率制度发展的历史概况,又接着分析了影响汇率形成和波动的主要因素,以考察一国的汇率制度与宏观经济间的相互关系。本文主要从以下三个方面依次展开论述。首先,本文在查阅求证了大量研究人员的研究成果的基础上,分析了在宏观经济指标中通货膨胀率和经济增长率与一国汇率制度选择之间的关系,然后从一国的宏观经济内部均衡和外部均衡出发,在斯旺模型的基础上,分析一国经济内外均衡冲突的状态下货币政策和汇率政策的各种搭配组合。接下来,本文又在分析了斯旺模型的局限性的问题之后,引入了经济学家拉津改进的“新斯旺模型”,进一步细分了在缓解内外均衡冲突问题上宏观经济政策的配合使用,以更加全面的视角分析和研究了宏观经济政策和汇率政策的搭配问题。其次,本文选取了在亚太地区17个国家和地区(中国,文莱,智利,中国香港,印度尼西亚,日本,韩国,墨西哥,马来西亚,秘鲁,菲律宾,俄罗斯,新加坡,泰国,越南,巴布亚新几内亚,和中国台北地区)进行分析,先是运用Ghosh的汇率制度分类法概括地分析了这17个国家和地区1980年至2009年汇率制度大体的发展状况,分析比较了这些国家和地区的汇率发展历史和脉络,之后又在Ghosh等人的计量分析模型基础上,本文对上述17个国家和地区自1980年至2009年的宏观经济数据进行实证分析,得出钉住汇率制度可以较有效地抑制通货膨胀,而却与经济增长呈现负相关的关系的结论。上述结论跟Levy-Yeyati和Sturzenegger的实证研究结果相符。第三,在以上分析和讨论的基础上,本文结合历史理论发展和经验总结,分析了中国当前内部均衡和外部均衡的冲突问题,并在斯旺模型和新斯旺模型的理论分析基础上,提出适合中国的政策搭配的可行性和局限性以及中国本外币冲突的制度和政策根源。最后,在综合以上的分析和论述之后,本文在总结以上东亚四个国家和地区的汇率改革和经济发展经验分析的基础上,为中国的汇率政策和货币政策的改革和发展提出了一些建议。
[Abstract]:Exchange rate is the value of a country's currency to another country's currency, and plays an important role in a country's macroeconomic operation. Exchange rate can reflect the overall situation of a country's economy from many aspects, and exchange rate, as the intermediate target of monetary policy, also plays a very important role in the adjustment of macroeconomic and the realization of final goal. Starting from the formation mechanism of a country's exchange rate regime, this paper first introduces the historical overview of the development of exchange rate regime in the history of international economic development, and then analyzes the main factors affecting the formation and fluctuation of exchange rate. In order to examine a country's exchange rate system and macroeconomic relations. This paper mainly discusses from the following three aspects. Firstly, based on the research results of a large number of researchers, this paper analyzes the relationship between the rate of inflation and the rate of economic growth in macroeconomic indicators and the choice of a country's exchange rate regime. Based on Swan's model, this paper analyzes various combinations of monetary policy and exchange rate policy under the conflict of internal and external equilibrium of a country's economy. Then, after analyzing the limitations of Swan model, this paper introduces the new Swan model, which is improved by economist Rajin, and further subdivides the cooperative use of macroeconomic policies in alleviating the conflict between internal and external equilibrium. This paper analyzes and studies the matching of macroeconomic policy and exchange rate policy from a more comprehensive perspective. Secondly, this paper selects 17 countries and regions (China, Brunei, Chile, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Malaysia, Peru, Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam) in the Asia-Pacific region. Papua New Guinea (and Taipei region of China), first of all, using Ghosh's classification of exchange rate regimes, analyzed the general development of the exchange rate regimes of these 17 countries and regions from 1980 to 2009. This paper analyzes and compares the history and context of exchange rate development in these countries and regions, and then, on the basis of the econometric analysis model of Ghosh et al., makes an empirical analysis of the macroeconomic data of the 17 countries and regions mentioned above from 1980 to 2009. It is concluded that the pegged exchange rate system can restrain inflation effectively, but has a negative correlation with economic growth. These conclusions are consistent with the empirical results of Levy-Yeyati and Sturzenegger. Thirdly, on the basis of the above analysis and discussion, this paper analyzes the conflict between internal and external equilibrium in China based on the historical theoretical development and experience, and based on the theoretical analysis of Swan model and new Swan model. This paper puts forward the feasibility and limitation of the policy collocation suitable for China, and the system and policy root of the conflict between local and foreign currency in China. Finally, after synthesizing the above analysis and discussion, this paper summarizes the experience of exchange rate reform and economic development of the above four East Asian countries and regions. Some suggestions are put forward for the reform and development of China's exchange rate policy and monetary policy.
【学位授予单位】：对外经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F832.6
本文编号：2353994
[Abstract]:Exchange rate is the value of a country's currency to another country's currency, and plays an important role in a country's macroeconomic operation. Exchange rate can reflect the overall situation of a country's economy from many aspects, and exchange rate, as the intermediate target of monetary policy, also plays a very important role in the adjustment of macroeconomic and the realization of final goal. Starting from the formation mechanism of a country's exchange rate regime, this paper first introduces the historical overview of the development of exchange rate regime in the history of international economic development, and then analyzes the main factors affecting the formation and fluctuation of exchange rate. In order to examine a country's exchange rate system and macroeconomic relations. This paper mainly discusses from the following three aspects. Firstly, based on the research results of a large number of researchers, this paper analyzes the relationship between the rate of inflation and the rate of economic growth in macroeconomic indicators and the choice of a country's exchange rate regime. Based on Swan's model, this paper analyzes various combinations of monetary policy and exchange rate policy under the conflict of internal and external equilibrium of a country's economy. Then, after analyzing the limitations of Swan model, this paper introduces the new Swan model, which is improved by economist Rajin, and further subdivides the cooperative use of macroeconomic policies in alleviating the conflict between internal and external equilibrium. This paper analyzes and studies the matching of macroeconomic policy and exchange rate policy from a more comprehensive perspective. Secondly, this paper selects 17 countries and regions (China, Brunei, Chile, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Malaysia, Peru, Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam) in the Asia-Pacific region. Papua New Guinea (and Taipei region of China), first of all, using Ghosh's classification of exchange rate regimes, analyzed the general development of the exchange rate regimes of these 17 countries and regions from 1980 to 2009. This paper analyzes and compares the history and context of exchange rate development in these countries and regions, and then, on the basis of the econometric analysis model of Ghosh et al., makes an empirical analysis of the macroeconomic data of the 17 countries and regions mentioned above from 1980 to 2009. It is concluded that the pegged exchange rate system can restrain inflation effectively, but has a negative correlation with economic growth. These conclusions are consistent with the empirical results of Levy-Yeyati and Sturzenegger. Thirdly, on the basis of the above analysis and discussion, this paper analyzes the conflict between internal and external equilibrium in China based on the historical theoretical development and experience, and based on the theoretical analysis of Swan model and new Swan model. This paper puts forward the feasibility and limitation of the policy collocation suitable for China, and the system and policy root of the conflict between local and foreign currency in China. Finally, after synthesizing the above analysis and discussion, this paper summarizes the experience of exchange rate reform and economic development of the above four East Asian countries and regions. Some suggestions are put forward for the reform and development of China's exchange rate policy and monetary policy.
【学位授予单位】：对外经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F832.6
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