吉林省内人口流动与经济发展的实证分析

发布时间：2019-01-01 15:12

【摘要】：人口流动作为在社会与经济双驱动力下,涵盖宏观因素与个人因素的社会现象,与之相联系的社会问题包括:户籍制度的改革与发展、区域经济差异以及流动人口与流入地的互动关系等方面,是时间、空间多维度作用与反作用下的复杂问题。吉林省,作为东北三省之一,从20世纪80年代后期,已成为人口净迁出省,伴随着人口年龄结构的加速进程和计划生育水平的持续走低,吉林省人口老龄化、少子化等问题日渐显现,人口流失的情况也逐年愈加凸显。从以往的研究结果发现,人口流动是在两股作用力下完成的,流出地有推动作用,流入地有容量吸纳的作用。通过实证分析,吉林省人口总数自2000年到2011年,一直呈均数上涨趋势,从2011年至2014年的三年间,吉林省人口数量有所回落,是因为人口政策和人口年龄结构变化导致的人口数量负增长情况的出现,这个原因我们能够在抚养系数变化程度以及各年龄段人口数统计那里得到证实。吉林省的流动人口内部结构以省内迁移为主,约占总人口的70%,在分地区的流动人口统计方面,流动人口活跃的省内地区,有更高的地区生产总值。在对省内各地区进行聚类后明显发现,流动人口活跃地有着经济发展优势以及地理优势,例如长春与吉林,松原与延边州。对吉林省流动人口预测数为430万,依然保持着自上世纪80年代以来的净迁移率负,人口数量降低所伴随的许许多多情况和问题将作用于吉林省经济发展、政治政策、文化结构属性等方方面面。从2000年至2014年,吉林省地区生产总值有了大幅度的升高,但14年间,吉林省的三个产业贡献率并无明显改变,仍然是以一二产业为主的省份。流动人口数量和经济增长指标的相关关系十分密切,在对七项关乎经济增长的统计指标进行因子分析后,得到一个代表性因子,信息解释达85%以上。通过变量间的因果关系检验,证明流动人口变化对经济增长有作用,而经济增长对流动人口的反作用并不成立。
[Abstract]:Population mobility, as a social phenomenon with both social and economic driving forces, covers both macro and individual factors. The social problems associated with it include the reform and development of the household registration system. The difference of regional economy and the interaction between floating population and floating place are complex problems under the action and reaction of time and space. Jilin Province, as one of the three northeastern provinces, has been a province of net population emigration since the late 1980s. With the acceleration of the population age structure and the continuous decline in the level of family planning, the population of Jilin Province has aged. The problem of minority children is becoming more and more obvious, and the situation of population loss is becoming more prominent year by year. From the previous research results, it is found that the population flow is completed under two forces, the outflow has the function of promoting, and the inflow has the function of capacity absorption. Through empirical analysis, the total population of Jilin Province has been increasing in average from 2000 to 2011. From 2011 to 2014, the population of Jilin Province has declined somewhat. This is because of the negative growth in population as a result of changes in population policy and age structure, which we can confirm in terms of the degree of change in the dependency coefficient and the size of the population of all ages. The internal structure of floating population in Jilin Province is mainly internal migration, accounting for about 70% of the total population. In the statistics of floating population in different regions, the region with active floating population has a higher regional GDP. It is found that the floating population has the advantages of economic development and geography, such as Changchun and Jilin, Songyuan and Yanbian prefecture. The forecast number for the floating population in Jilin Province is 4.3 million, which still maintains the negative net migration rate since the 1980s. Many situations and problems associated with the population decline will play an important role in the economic development and political policies of Jilin Province. Cultural structure attributes and other aspects. From 2000 to 2014, the GDP of Jilin Province increased by a large margin, but in the past 14 years, the contribution rate of the three industries in Jilin Province has not changed significantly, and it is still a province dominated by the first and second industries. The correlation between floating population quantity and economic growth index is very close. After factor analysis of seven statistical indicators related to economic growth, a representative factor is obtained, and the information explanation is more than 85%. Through the test of causality between variables, it is proved that the change of floating population has an effect on economic growth, but the reaction of economic growth to floating population is not valid.
【学位授予单位】：吉林财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：C924.2;F127

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