纳米比亚谷物生产能力和国家食物安全分析—玉米和珍珠粟

发布时间：2019-01-11 10:47

【摘要】：粮食安全是经济发展和社会稳定的基础。众所周知,谷物具有价格低廉且无需加工可直接食用的性质,是欠发达和发展中国家重要的主食消费来源。在每天卡路里摄入量中,超过50%以上的部分直接来自谷物消费。该论文在分析过去三十三年纳米比亚谷物消费和供给的基础上,重点研究该国粮食安全和粮食生产能力。由于纳米比亚生产和消费的谷物种类繁多,该论文以玉米和珍珠粟为重点产品展开分析。文中数据来自纳米比亚农艺局、纳米比亚统计机构、世界银行统计数据库、科学期刊以及联合国粮农组织统计数据库。纳米比亚生产的玉米和珍珠粟受天气条件制约严重,因此,多年来,其产出量低且不稳定。平均而言,玉米的年产量约为34000吨,珍珠粟的年产量约为52000吨,年均分别为每公顷1.3吨和0.3吨。玉米、珍珠粟的人均年消费量分别为44kg、28kg。从历史数据分析,玉米和珍珠粟人均消费增速均高于其生产增速,两者供需缺口有加大势头。本文用柯布—道格拉斯生产函数的对数形式对变量间关系进行分析,并找出影响纳米比亚玉米和珍珠粟产量的决定性因素。分析结果表明,土地与降雨量跟玉米产量呈显著正相关,但珍珠粟产量仅与土地有关。为了弥补消费和生产之间的缺口,必须从基础设施建设、农业技术推广、生产资料等三个方面增加投入,大幅提高当地玉米和珍珠粟的产量。同时,政府部门应该加强双边和多边信息和技术的交换,提高该国农业发展技术支撑能力。
[Abstract]:Food security is the foundation of economic development and social stability. It is well known that cereals are cheap and can be eaten directly without processing, which is an important source of staple food consumption in underdeveloped and developing countries. More than 50% of daily calorie intake comes directly from cereal consumption. Based on the analysis of grain consumption and supply in Namibia over the past 33 years, this paper focuses on food security and food production capacity in Namibia. Due to the wide variety of cereals produced and consumed in Namibia, this paper focuses on corn and pearl millet. The data are from the Namibian Bureau of Agronomy, the Namibian Institute of Statistics, the World Bank statistical database, scientific journals and the FAO statistical database. The maize and pearl millet produced in Namibia are severely restricted by weather conditions and, as a result, have been low and unstable for many years. On average, the annual yield of corn is about 34000 tons, and that of pearl millet is about 52000 tons, which is 1.3 tons and 0.3 tons per hectare, respectively. The per capita consumption of corn and pearl millet were 44 kg / L and 28 kg / g, respectively. According to the historical data, the per capita consumption growth rate of corn and pearl millet is higher than that of their production, and the gap between supply and demand is increasing. In this paper, the logarithmic form of Cobb-Douglas production function is used to analyze the relationship between variables, and the decisive factors affecting the yield of corn and pearl millet in Namibia are found out. The results showed that land and rainfall were positively correlated with maize yield, but the yield of pearl millet was only related to land. In order to make up the gap between consumption and production, it is necessary to increase investment from three aspects: infrastructure construction, agricultural technology extension and means of production, so as to greatly increase the yield of local corn and pearl millet. At the same time, government departments should strengthen bilateral and multilateral exchange of information and technology to improve the agricultural development technology support capacity of the country.
【学位授予单位】：中国农业科学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F316.11

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