基于全要素生产率的中国最优城市规模研究

发布时间：2019-02-16 01:25

【摘要】：城市规模的扩大既有聚集经济的一面,也有聚集不经济的一面,因此从理论上讲应该存在着一个最优城市规模或者适宜城市规模的区间。在该区间范围内,聚集的边际收益与聚集的边际成本刚好相互抵消,聚集带来的净收益达到最大化。房价是聚集不经济的直观指标,是导致人口分散的力量。在中国,购房支出占家庭支出的很大一部分,而统计局在统计CPI的过程中没有将房价计算在内,因此,本文认为CPI不是一个能很好体现地区间生活成本差异的指标。为此,本文建立了房价和CPI加权的生活成本指数(COL),比较了各个城市的COL调整的人均GDP,文中称之为“真实人均GDP”,结果发现北京、上海、广州、深圳等城市虽然名义人均GDP排名靠前,但是由于生活成本过高,真实人均GDP排名在前25名开外。本文在Henderson建立的城市模型的基础上,基于2005-2013年中国地级及以上城市面板数据,使用经生活成本指数调整的GDP测算各城市的全要素生产率,研究了城市的全要素生产率与城市规模的关系,发现城市规模与全要素生产率之间存在倒U型关系。同时还发现城市规模与城市产业结构的交互项对全要素生产率存在正向作用,产业结构越高级,城市规模扩张带来的生产效率提高越明显。本文还计算了各城市目前产业结构水平下的最优城市规模以及95%置信水平下适宜城市规模的上限和下限。为了与现有文献形成对比,本文也构建模型研究了城市规模与城市劳动生产率的关系。虽然,本文也得到了城市规模与城市劳动生产率的倒U型关系,并且最优城市规模与现有文献相差不大。但是对比发现,用全要素生产率作为被解释变量得到的最优城市规模要小于用劳动生产率得到的最优城市规模,这说明使得全要素生产率最大化的最优城市规模小于使得劳动生产率最大化的城市规模。
[Abstract]:The expansion of urban scale has both the side of aggregate economy and the side of uneconomic aggregation. Therefore, theoretically speaking, there should be an optimal urban scale or an appropriate interval for urban scale. In this range, the marginal income of aggregation and the marginal cost of aggregation are offset each other, and the net income of aggregation is maximized. House prices are an intuitive indicator of economic agglomeration and the forces leading to population dispersion. In China, house purchase expenditure accounts for a large part of household expenditure, while the statistics bureau does not calculate house prices in the process of CPI statistics. Therefore, this paper argues that CPI is not a good indicator of the difference of living cost between regions. For this reason, this paper establishes a CPI weighted cost-of-living index, (COL), to compare the COL adjusted per capita GDP, of each city, which is called "real per capita GDP". The results show that Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Although Shenzhen and other cities rank high in nominal per capita GDP, real per capita GDP ranks well above the top 25 because of the high cost of living. Based on the urban model established by Henderson and the panel data of cities at or above the prefectural level in China from 2005 to 2013, the total factor productivity (TFP) of each city is measured by using GDP adjusted by the cost of living index. The relationship between urban total factor productivity (TFP) and urban scale is studied. It is found that there is an inverted U-type relationship between urban scale and TFP. At the same time, it is also found that the interaction between urban scale and urban industrial structure has a positive effect on total factor productivity. The higher the industrial structure, the more obvious the increase of production efficiency brought by urban scale expansion. This paper also calculates the optimal city size under the current industrial structure level and the upper and lower limits of the appropriate city size at 95% confidence level. In order to compare with the existing literature, this paper also constructs a model to study the relationship between urban scale and urban labor productivity. Although this paper also obtains the inverted U-shaped relationship between urban scale and urban labor productivity, and the optimal urban scale is not different from the existing literature. However, it is found that the optimal city size obtained by using total factor productivity as the explanatory variable is smaller than that obtained by labor productivity. This shows that the optimal city size of maximizing total factor productivity is smaller than that of labor productivity maximization.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F299.2

【参考文献】