固定资本存量理论方法探讨与核算设计

发布时间：2019-02-22 19:35

【摘要】：固定资本存量是宏观经济管理与决策中的一个重要指标,但在过去数十年,我国统计基础薄弱,统计制度完备性较低,资料缺口较大,这些现实条件制约了过去对固定资本存量估算方法的研究。本文在此基础上首先梳理了资本核算的相关理论脉络,而后对固定资本存量核算方法层面中广泛运用的永续盘存法(Perpetual Inventory Method)在某些基本假设中的合理性提出怀疑。主要针对固定资本几何折旧模式的是否普遍成立提出合理怀疑并进行模拟论证。统计模拟结果显示一类固定资产与单一固定资产的效率衰减曲线并不一致,资产总体效率曲线更为凸向原点,也即出现了“合成谬误”的现象,由此说明一类资产效率衰减的几何模式在现实中并不总是成立。除此之外,PIM法普遍以某种变通方式出现在国内的研究中,受限于数据可得性的问题,替代、改造以及合成PIM法中关键变量的现象十分普遍,这会带来固定资本存量原有含义的偏离、估算结果差异显著等一系列的问题从而制约资本存量核算研究在我国的发展。在上述前提下,结合当今信息化、大数据化技术的高度发展,本文尝试提出了利用信息化工具直接核算固定资本存量的想法,并尝试将这种核算方法整合进入现行的统计一套表制度中。通过对其实践性的探索分析,以一套表制度为载体的固定资本存量直接核算具备现实操作性,这需要对一套表调查内容进行一定程度的扩充。
[Abstract]:Fixed capital stock is an important index in macroeconomic management and decision-making, but in the past few decades, the statistical foundation of our country is weak, the statistical system is not complete, and the data gap is large. These realistic conditions restrict the past research on the estimation method of fixed capital stock. On this basis, this paper firstly combs the relevant theoretical context of capital accounting, and then doubts the rationality of (Perpetual Inventory Method), which is widely used in the method of fixed capital stock accounting in some basic assumptions. This paper puts forward reasonable doubts about whether the geometric depreciation model of fixed capital is generally established and carries on the simulation demonstration. The statistical simulation results show that the efficiency decay curve of a class of fixed assets is not consistent with that of a single fixed asset, and the overall efficiency curve of assets is more convex to the origin, that is, the phenomenon of "composite falsehood" appears. This shows that the geometric model of asset efficiency decay is not always true in reality. In addition, PIM method generally appears in domestic research in some alternative way, limited by the problem of data availability, the phenomenon of substitution, modification and synthesis of key variables in PIM method is very common. This will lead to a series of problems such as deviation of the original meaning of fixed capital stock, significant difference in estimation results and so on, thus restricting the development of capital stock accounting research in China. Under the above premise, combined with the high development of information technology and data technology, this paper tries to put forward the idea of using information tools to calculate the fixed capital stock directly. And try to integrate this accounting method into the current statistical system of a set of tables. Through the exploration and analysis of its practicality, the direct accounting of the fixed capital stock with a set of table system as the carrier has practical maneuverability, which needs to expand the contents of a set of table investigation to a certain extent.
【学位授予单位】：广东财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F222.3

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