世界经济周期对中国OFDI的影响

发布时间：2019-03-08 14:16

【摘要】：随着经济全球化和经济一体化的不断深入,世界各国之间的经济关系日益紧密,相互依存度显著提高,都无法避免受到其他国家经济波动的影响。特别是,金融危机后,全球经济受到重创,增长速度严重放缓,世界主要经济体经济均处于经济周期的收缩期,对外直接投资流量大幅下滑,严重影响了全球国际直接投资量。而此时,中国作为新兴经济体对外直接投资却异军突起,增长迅猛。因此,在此背景下,研究世界经济周期波动对中国对外直接投资的影响,以及如何在经济波动中继续保持中国对外直接投资的稳步增长,是值得研究的重要课题。本文对以往研究成果进行简单的梳理总结,在此基础上,首先从理论角度分析了经济周期阶段性对国际直接投资的影响机理,揭示国际直接投资的驱动力——预期投资收益率,及预期投资收益最大化的实现方式,本文提出经济周期阶段性会通过资产价格、融资成本、沉淀成本等途径影响其实现方式,从而改变预期投资收益率,同时经济周期波动还会影响到投资风险,继而在预期收益率和风险的共同作用下影响到国际直接投资的流向和规模。其次,分别阐述了世界经济周期演化和中国对外直接投资的发展现状,发现中国对外直接投资也呈阶段性波动特征,并对两者进行了统计分析,结果显示两者之间存在密切相关性。随后,基于以上分析,选取2003-2014年间中国对全球110个国家和地区的直接投资数据作为样本,运用引力模型,通过实证研究来分析世界经济周期波动对中国对外直接投资的影响,结果显示,世界经济处于扩张期时,中国对外直接投资减少,而当世界经济周期处于收缩期时,中国对外直接投资反而增加了,即中国对外直接投资与世界经济周期波动呈反向相关,同时还发现世界经济处于收缩期时的对外直接投资弹性要大于扩张期时,呈现非对称性特征,在分类国家的实证检验中发现,发达国家在扩张期时对中国对外直接投资的影响较大,而发展中国家则在衰退期时的影响更大。最后,本文根据所得出的结论,对促进中国对外直接投资提出相关政策建议,以期为中国未来对外直接投资政策的制定提供一些参考依据。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of economic globalization and economic integration, the economic relations between countries in the world are increasingly close, and the degree of interdependence is significantly increased, which can not avoid being affected by the economic fluctuations of other countries. Especially, after the financial crisis, the global economy has been severely damaged and the growth rate has slowed down seriously. The world's major economies are in the contraction period of the economic cycle, and the outward direct investment flows have fallen sharply, which has seriously affected the global volume of international direct investment. At this time, as an emerging economy, China's outward direct investment is rising rapidly. Therefore, it is an important task to study the influence of the world economic cycle fluctuation on China's outward direct investment and how to keep the steady growth of China's outward direct investment in the economic fluctuation. On the basis of this, this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of economic cycle stages on FDI, and reveals the driving force of FDI-the expected return on investment, which is the driving force of FDI, based on this, the paper analyzes the influence mechanism of economic cycle stages on FDI from the theoretical point of view, and reveals the driving force of FDI. And how to realize the maximization of expected investment return, this paper puts forward that the stage of economic cycle will influence the realization way through the way of asset price, financing cost, precipitation cost, and so on, so as to change the expected rate of return on investment. At the same time, the fluctuation of economic cycle will also affect the investment risk, and then affect the flow and scale of international direct investment under the combination of expected rate of return and risk. Secondly, it expounds the evolution of the world economic cycle and the current situation of China's outward direct investment, and finds that China's outward direct investment is also fluctuating in stages, and makes a statistical analysis of the two. The results showed that there was a close correlation between them. Then, based on the above analysis, the data of China's direct investment in 110 countries and regions in the world during 2003-2014 was selected as a sample, and the gravity model was used. This paper analyzes the impact of world economic cycle fluctuations on China's outward direct investment through empirical research. The results show that when the world economy is in a period of expansion, China's outward direct investment decreases, and when the world economic cycle is in a contraction period, On the contrary, China's outward direct investment increased, that is, China's outward direct investment was inversely correlated with the fluctuations of the world economic cycle. At the same time, it was also found that the elasticity of outward direct investment in the world economy in the period of contraction was greater than that in the period of expansion. In the empirical test of classified countries, it is found that the developed countries have a greater impact on China's outward direct investment during the expansion period, while the developing countries have a greater impact on China's outward direct investment during the recession period. Finally, according to the conclusions, this paper puts forward some relevant policy recommendations to promote China's OFDI, in order to provide some reference basis for the formulation of China's future OFDI policy.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6

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