上市公司存货投资行为实证研究
发布时间：2019-05-12 18:34
【摘要】：在西方发达国家中,存货投资在国内生产总值(GDP)中所占的比重很小,仅仅占到GDP的0.5%左右。但是,在经济运行的过程中,经济周期的变化与存货投资的变化又紧密地联系在一起。经济周期性的波动与存货投资周期性的波动如影随形,经济发生波动的同时,存货投资往往也剧烈地变动。Blinder曾说过,只有透彻地了解了企业的存货行为后,才有可能了解经济的周期性。存货又是企业的一项重要资产,原材料存货直接影响产品的生产,产成品存货直接影响产品的销售,从而间接影响了企业的财务状况和经营成果,影响到公司价值的实现。可见,存货投资不仅在宏观经济中扮演着重要的角色,在微观企业层面也发挥着巨大的作用。对于存货投资问题,诸多国内外学者将研究的重点放在经济学层面上,从宏观经济学角度,利用宏观经济数据来研究存货投资行为。本文创新性地选取了新的角度,从微观企业层面研究上市公司的存货投资行为,包括上市公司存货投资行为的特征、存货投资的行业差异、存货投资与宏观经济之间的关系,以及存货投资行为对企业价值的影响。本文利用2003-2014年我国上市公司的财务数据进行实证研究,建立了一个多元回归模型,以托宾Q值为被解释变量,以期末存货占资产总额的比例为解释变量,以资产负债率、净资产收益率、成长性、企业的经济性质、宏观经济周期等为控制变量。利用SPSS19.0进行了描述性统计分析、相关性分析、回归分析以及稳健性检验,最终得到实证检验的结果,并进行了总结。统计分析发现:(1)2003年到2014年全部样本公司的期末存货占资产总额的比例年平均数为0.22,全部样本公司的年度存货投资变化率的年平均数为0.36。(2)2003年到2014年行业间的期末存货占资产总额比例的年平均数差距不大,行业间的年度存货投资变化率的年平均数差异比较大。(3)2003年到2014年期末存货占资产总额的比例的年均数与名义经济增长率、居民消费价格指数、通货膨胀率之间不存在显著的相关关系。(4)2003年到2014年年度存货投资变化率的年均数与名义经济增长率、居民消费价格指数、通货膨胀率之间不存在显著的相关关系。实证研究发现:(1)不论是国有企业还是非国有企业,期末存货占资产总额的比例与企业价值之间都存在着一种显著的倒"U"型关系。非国有企业期末存货占资产总额的比例对公司价值的影响比国有企业大。(2)在经济繁荣时期,企业期末存货占资产总额的比例与企业价值之间存在着一种显著的倒"U"型关系;在经济衰退时期,企业期末存货占资产总额的比例与企业价值之间存在着一种显著的"U"型关系。
[Abstract]:In western developed countries, the share of inventory investment in (GDP) is very small, accounting for only about 0.5% of GDP. However, in the process of economic operation, the change of economic cycle is closely related to the change of inventory investment. The cyclical fluctuations of the economy and the cyclical fluctuations of inventory investment follow each other. At the same time, while the economy fluctuates, inventory investment often changes dramatically. Blinder once said that only after a thorough understanding of the inventory behavior of enterprises, It is possible to understand the periodicity of the economy. Inventory is an important asset of an enterprise. Raw material inventory directly affects the production of products, and finished product inventory directly affects the sales of products, which indirectly affects the financial situation and operating results of the enterprise, and affects the realization of the value of the company. It can be seen that inventory investment not only plays an important role in the macro-economy, but also plays a huge role in the micro-enterprise level. For inventory investment, many domestic and foreign scholars focus on the economic level, from the macro-economic point of view, using macroeconomic data to study the behavior of inventory investment. This paper innovatively selects a new angle to study the inventory investment behavior of listed companies from the micro-enterprise level, including the characteristics of inventory investment behavior of listed companies, the industry differences of inventory investment, and the relationship between inventory investment and macro-economy. And the impact of inventory investment behavior on the value of enterprises. This paper makes an empirical study on the financial data of listed companies in China from 2003 to 2014, and establishes a multiple regression model with Tobin Q value as the explained variable, the ratio of inventory to total assets as the explanatory variable, and the asset-liability ratio as the explanatory variable. The rate of return on net assets, growth, the economic nature of the enterprise, macroeconomic cycle and so on are control variables. Descriptive statistical analysis, correlation analysis, regression analysis and robustness test were carried out by using SPSS19.0. Finally, the results of empirical test were obtained and summarized. Statistical analysis found: (1) from 2003 to 2014, the annual average of closing inventory to total assets of all sample companies was 0.22, The annual average of the annual inventory investment change rate for all sample companies is 0.36. (2) there is little difference in the annual average ratio of closing inventory to total assets between 2003 and 2014 between industry and industry. The annual average change rate of annual inventory investment among industries varies greatly. (3) the average annual number of inventory as a proportion of total assets from 2003 to the end of 2014 is related to the nominal economic growth rate, and the consumer price index of residents. There is no significant correlation between inflation rate. (4) there is no significant correlation between the annual change rate of inventory investment from 2003 to 2014 and the nominal economic growth rate, consumer price index and inflation rate. The empirical study shows that: (1) there is a significant inverted "U" relationship between the ratio of inventory to total assets and the value of enterprises in both state-owned and non-state-owned enterprises. The ratio of inventory to total assets of non-state-owned enterprises at the end of the period has a greater impact on the value of the company than that of state-owned enterprises. (2) during the period of economic prosperity, There is a significant inverted "U" relationship between the proportion of inventory to the total assets at the end of the enterprise and the value of the enterprise. In the period of economic recession, there is a significant "U" relationship between the ratio of inventory to total assets and the value of the enterprise at the end of the period.
【学位授予单位】：湖北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F275;F832.51
本文编号：2475605
[Abstract]:In western developed countries, the share of inventory investment in (GDP) is very small, accounting for only about 0.5% of GDP. However, in the process of economic operation, the change of economic cycle is closely related to the change of inventory investment. The cyclical fluctuations of the economy and the cyclical fluctuations of inventory investment follow each other. At the same time, while the economy fluctuates, inventory investment often changes dramatically. Blinder once said that only after a thorough understanding of the inventory behavior of enterprises, It is possible to understand the periodicity of the economy. Inventory is an important asset of an enterprise. Raw material inventory directly affects the production of products, and finished product inventory directly affects the sales of products, which indirectly affects the financial situation and operating results of the enterprise, and affects the realization of the value of the company. It can be seen that inventory investment not only plays an important role in the macro-economy, but also plays a huge role in the micro-enterprise level. For inventory investment, many domestic and foreign scholars focus on the economic level, from the macro-economic point of view, using macroeconomic data to study the behavior of inventory investment. This paper innovatively selects a new angle to study the inventory investment behavior of listed companies from the micro-enterprise level, including the characteristics of inventory investment behavior of listed companies, the industry differences of inventory investment, and the relationship between inventory investment and macro-economy. And the impact of inventory investment behavior on the value of enterprises. This paper makes an empirical study on the financial data of listed companies in China from 2003 to 2014, and establishes a multiple regression model with Tobin Q value as the explained variable, the ratio of inventory to total assets as the explanatory variable, and the asset-liability ratio as the explanatory variable. The rate of return on net assets, growth, the economic nature of the enterprise, macroeconomic cycle and so on are control variables. Descriptive statistical analysis, correlation analysis, regression analysis and robustness test were carried out by using SPSS19.0. Finally, the results of empirical test were obtained and summarized. Statistical analysis found: (1) from 2003 to 2014, the annual average of closing inventory to total assets of all sample companies was 0.22, The annual average of the annual inventory investment change rate for all sample companies is 0.36. (2) there is little difference in the annual average ratio of closing inventory to total assets between 2003 and 2014 between industry and industry. The annual average change rate of annual inventory investment among industries varies greatly. (3) the average annual number of inventory as a proportion of total assets from 2003 to the end of 2014 is related to the nominal economic growth rate, and the consumer price index of residents. There is no significant correlation between inflation rate. (4) there is no significant correlation between the annual change rate of inventory investment from 2003 to 2014 and the nominal economic growth rate, consumer price index and inflation rate. The empirical study shows that: (1) there is a significant inverted "U" relationship between the ratio of inventory to total assets and the value of enterprises in both state-owned and non-state-owned enterprises. The ratio of inventory to total assets of non-state-owned enterprises at the end of the period has a greater impact on the value of the company than that of state-owned enterprises. (2) during the period of economic prosperity, There is a significant inverted "U" relationship between the proportion of inventory to the total assets at the end of the enterprise and the value of the enterprise. In the period of economic recession, there is a significant "U" relationship between the ratio of inventory to total assets and the value of the enterprise at the end of the period.
【学位授予单位】：湖北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F275;F832.51
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