中国经济增长速度放缓的外贸商品结构原因分析

发布时间：2019-06-14 17:56

【摘要】：改革开放以来,中国经济经历了三十多年的高速增长,但近年来,中国经济增速明显放缓,这是外部原因和内部原因共同作用的结果。世界经济不景气的外部原因是导致经济增速放缓的条件,其内部原因是产业结构调整,内部原因是导致中国经济增速放缓的根本原因。根据国际贸易理论的一般原理,产业结构与外贸商品结构实质上是“原像”与“镜像”的关系,因此,从外贸商品结构的角度出发考察中国经济增长速度放缓的内部原因具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文基于BEC标准与SITC标准对外贸商品进行分类,分别探讨了外贸商品结构对经济增速的直接影响和间接影响,并运用对比分析、图表分析和计量分析等方法研究了导致中国经济增速放缓的外贸商品结构原因。全文共分五个部分:第一部分为绪论,主要论述了选题背景与研究意义、研究思路与研究方法。第二部分介绍了外贸商品结构、经济增长速度以及二者之间的关系,及其国内外相关理论的历史演进和研究现状。第三部分,通过对改革开放以来的34年中的主要贸易指标的分析,归纳总结中国外贸商品结构和中国经济增速的变化与现状。第四部分,对中国经济增速放缓的外贸商品结构原因进行了定性和定量分析。通过定性分析,本文认为,外贸商品结构对经济增速存在直接影响和间接影响。直接影响表现为:资本品出口比重下降,消费品出口比重上升会导致经济增长速度明显放缓,但进口方面资本品和消费品的比重变化会缓解经济增速放缓;间接影响表现为,工业制成品和初级产品进出口相对比例的变化能够通过影响外贸增长速度来影响经济增长速度。本文通过构建向量自回归模型(VAR)进行的定量分析得出如下结论:资本品和消费品进出口对经济增速的协同作用不显著,而资本品进出口和消费品进出口分别对经济增速的影响是非常显著的,这与定性分析的结果相吻合。第五部分,根据外贸商品结构变化对中国经济增速的影响,提出了优化资本品和消费品进出口结构,积极加强区域内合作,转变贸易增长方式以及提升价值链水平等应对经济增速放缓的措施。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening-up, the Chinese economy has experienced a high-speed increase of more than 30 years, but in recent years, China's economic growth has slowed significantly, which is the result of the common role of external and internal causes. The external causes of the world's economic downturn are the conditions that lead to a slowdown in the growth of the economy, the internal cause of which is the structural adjustment of the industry, which is the underlying cause of a slowdown in the growth of the economy. According to the general principle of the international trade theory, the structure of the industrial structure and the foreign trade commodity is essentially the relationship between the "original image" and the "mirror". In this paper, based on the BEC and the SITC standard, the foreign trade goods are classified, the direct and indirect influences of the foreign trade commodity structure on the economic growth rate are discussed, and the comparative analysis is applied. The paper studies the structural causes of the foreign trade goods which have led to a slowdown in the growth of China's economy, such as the analysis of the graph and the measurement and analysis. The full text is divided into five parts: the first part is the introduction, the background and research significance of the topic selection, the research thinking and the research method are mainly discussed. The second part introduces the structure of foreign trade goods, the economic growth rate and the relationship between them, and the historical evolution and research status of the relevant theories at home and abroad. The third part, through the analysis of the main trade indexes in the 34 years since the reform and opening up, summarizes the changes and the present situation of China's foreign trade commodity structure and the growth of China's economy. The fourth part is the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the structure of the foreign trade commodity structure that has slowed the growth of China's economy. By qualitative analysis, this paper holds that the foreign trade commodity structure has a direct and indirect effect on economic growth. The direct effect is as follows: the proportion of the export of the capital goods is declining, the increase of the proportion of the export of the consumer goods will lead to a significant slowdown in the economic growth rate, but the change of the specific gravity of the capital goods and the consumer goods in the import side will alleviate the economic slowdown; the indirect effect appears to be, The relative proportion of the import and export of industrial and primary products can affect the growth rate of the economy by influencing the growth rate of foreign trade. Based on the quantitative analysis of the vector autoregressive model (VAR), this paper concludes that the effect of the import and export of the capital goods and the consumer goods on the economic growth is not significant, and the import and export of the capital goods and the import and export of the consumer goods have a very significant effect on the economic growth. This is consistent with the results of the qualitative analysis. The fifth part, according to the influence of the change of the foreign trade commodity structure on the growth of China's economy, put forward the measures to optimize the import and export structure of the capital goods and the consumer goods, to actively strengthen the cooperation in the region, to change the way of trade growth and to improve the value chain level.
【学位授予单位】：东北师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F752.6

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