我国区域能源价格对碳排放强度影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-02 08:29

本文关键词：我国区域能源价格对碳排放强度影响研究　出处：《中国矿业大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文主要研究我国东、中、西三部分地区的能源价格对碳排放强度的金融驱动影响。首先，分析了我国能源价格形成机制和碳排放强度的现状，接着，运用ADF检验、协整检验以及格兰杰因果检验各区域能源价格和碳排放强度是否存在单位根、协整和因果关系。然后利用结构突变模型对各区域的能源价格和碳排放强度的结构突变点的判断以及检验变结构单位根和协整关系，并运用Theil不等式系数对考虑结构突变与没有考虑结构突变的模型进行对比评价，进而进行能源价格对碳排放强度的金融驱动理论研究并我国金融驱动现状作出分析，最后构建金融驱动关系联立方程模型，通过广义矩估计（GMM）估计联立方程模型的系数。现行的能源价格机制导致能源价格偏低，不能挥发能源价格引导正确的能源消费倾向对碳排放强度降低的影响作用，另外，，我国各区域的碳排放总量不断提高，增长速率较快，碳排放强度在逐年下降，但下降的速度较慢。我国各区域能源价格和碳排放强度存在结构突变点，我国东部地区能源价格均值和趋势突变点都是2002年，碳排放强度均值突变时点为2002年，趋势突变时点为2001；中部地区的能源价格结构突变时点均值和趋势突变点都为2002年，碳排放强度的均值和趋势突变点都为1999年，西部地区能源价格的均值突变点为2001年，趋势突变点为2002年，碳排放强度的均值和趋势突变点都为2002年。在不考虑结构突变的情况下，我国中西地区的能源价格和碳排放强度存在一阶单整，不平稳，西部地区序列平稳，三个地区能源价格与碳排放强度不存在短期直接因果关系，东部和中部地区不存在长期协整关系，而我国西部地区存在长期协整关系。而在考虑结构突变的情况下，二者不存在单位根且存在变结构协整关系。通过对比评估，在考虑结构突变的模型比没有考虑结构突变的模型更合理。我国能源价格与对碳排放强度的金融驱动路径各地区由于本地区自身发展不同而存在异质性，东部地区通过金融驱动的规模效应降低碳排放强度，中部地区通过金融驱动的技术效应和结构效应共同作用达到碳减排，西部地区通过滞后的金融驱动的结构效应和技术效应降低碳减排，并且我国东部、中部和西部的影响效果有着明显的差异。为了使我国能源价格对碳排放强度的金融驱动作用更好的发挥，应采取以下措施：完善能源价格定价机制，优化能源价格对碳排放强度影响的金融驱动机制，合理选择能源价格对碳排放强度金融驱动路径。
[Abstract]:This paper mainly studies China's East, West three parts of the impact of energy prices on the carbon emission intensity of financial drive. First, analysis of the current situation, the energy price formation mechanism and carbon emission intensity in China then, using ADF test, cointegration test and Granger causality test Grainger regional energy prices and carbon emissions intensity the presence of unit roots, cointegration and causality. Then the structure using structure change model of regional energy prices and carbon emission intensity of point mutations as well as to determine the test variable structure unit root and cointegration, and using the Theil inequality coefficient to consider structure mutation and mutation model without considering the structure comparison and evaluation the price of energy carbon emission intensity of the financial theory research and drive China's financial situation driven analysis, finally construct the financial relationship driven simultaneous equation model, the generalized The moment estimation (GMM) is used to estimate the coefficient of the simultaneous equation model.
The current energy price mechanism leads to low energy prices, energy prices can not volatilize and guide the energy consumption on the impact of carbon emission intensity decreased, in addition, the total carbon emissions of each region of our country continues to improve, growth rate, carbon emission intensity decreased year by year, but the rate of decline is slow.
China's regional energy prices and carbon emission intensity has a turning point, Eastern China's energy prices mean and trend change point is 2002, the carbon emission intensity of the mean mutation point in time for the 2002, the trend of 2001 point mutation; mutation energy price structure in the central region of the mean and trend of mutation for 2002, mutation the mean and trend of carbon emission intensity at all in 1999, the mean energy prices in the western region mutation point of 2001, the trend of the mutation mutation in 2002, mean and trend of carbon emission intensity at all for 2002. Without considering the structure mutation under the condition of China's western region energy prices and carbon emissions intensity a single whole, not smooth, the western region sequence of smooth, three areas of energy prices and carbon emission intensity in the short term does not exist a direct causal relationship, long-term cointegration relationship does not exist in the eastern and central regions, However, there is a long-run cointegration relationship in the western region of China. When considering the structural change, there is no unit root and there is a variable structure cointegration relationship between the two. By comparison and evaluation, it is more reasonable to consider the structural catastrophe model than the one without considering the structural catastrophe.
China's energy price and carbon emission intensity of each region and financial drive path heterogeneity because of the region's development, the eastern region to reduce carbon emissions intensity through the scale effect of financial drive, the central region through the effect of financial technology driven and structure effect together to reduce carbon emissions, carbon emission reduction through the effect of financial structure drive and technology lag effect in the western region and the eastern part of our country, the effect of the central and western regions have obvious differences.
In order to make our energy price on carbon emission intensity of the financial driving role to play better, we should take the following measures: to improve the energy pricing mechanism, optimization of energy price on carbon emission intensity of the impact of financial driving mechanism, a reasonable choice of energy price on carbon emission intensity of financial drive path.

【学位授予单位】：中国矿业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F764.1;X196

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