几种减排方案对宏观经济及碳排放的影响——基于贸易自由化背景的模拟分析

发布时间：2018-02-09 01:51

本文关键词： 贸易自由化减排方案碳泄漏 GTAP-E模型　出处：《厦门大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：近年来,有关贸易与气候变化问题越来越受到国际社会的关注,利用GTAP-E模型对贸易自由化背景下不同减排方案的宏观经济和碳排放影响进行预测模拟。结果表明,"附件Ⅰ减排"和"全球合作性减排"的总量管制模式是以牺牲经济增长和消费者福利为代价的,而作为灵活机制的"全球碳排放交易",对全球总量减排效果最为明显,同时对全球经济损失和消费者福利影响的程度相对较小。对中国而言,较之其他减排方案,"全球碳排放交易"将促使附件Ⅰ国家将减排压力、资源配置损失向中国转移,导致中国碳排放量增加的同时贸易条件恶化、经济总量明显下降。在贸易自由化背景下,参与"全球合作性减排"对中国的低碳经济转型更为有利。
[Abstract]:In recent years, issues related to trade and climate change have received increasing attention from the international community, The GTAP-E model is used to predict the macroeconomic and carbon emission impacts of different emission reduction schemes in the context of trade liberalization. The results show that the aggregate control models of "Annex I emission reduction" and "global cooperative emission reduction" are at the expense of the others. At the expense of economic growth and consumer welfare, "Global carbon trading", as a flexible mechanism, has the most significant impact on global emissions reductions, while the impact on global economic losses and consumer welfare is relatively small. Compared with other emission reduction options, "global carbon trading" will encourage Annex I countries to shift emission reduction pressures and resource allocation losses to China, leading to an increase in China's carbon emissions and deterioration in the terms of trade. Under the background of trade liberalization, participation in "global cooperative emission reduction" will be more beneficial to China's low-carbon economic transformation.
【作者单位】：厦门大学国际经济与贸易系;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目“气候变化与国际贸易问题研究”(13&ZD167) 国家自然科学基金面上项目“国际贸易的碳排放区域转移效应评估、形成机理及中国的碳排放责任研究”(71373218) 教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目“开放经济条件下资源环境约束强化、技术进步与中国经济增长效率”(12JJD790027) 福建省社科基金重点项目“国际贸易的碳排放区域转移研究”(2012A009) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金“国际贸易与产业发展”(20720171001)
【分类号】：X196;F752;F124.5

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