低碳经济范式下的环境保护评价指标体系研究

发布时间：2018-02-21 18:35

本文关键词： 低碳经济环境保护二氧化碳评价低碳城市　出处：《中南大学》2011年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自从工业革命以来,人类创造了巨大的物质财富,环境的负外部性问题也越来越突出,元凶就是以二氧化碳为主的温室气体排放增加。2003年英国提出了旨在降低温室气体排放的“低碳经济”,世界各国也纷纷开始减少温室气体排放的行动。在传统高碳经济发展模式受到严重质疑和挑战下,发展低碳经济成为各国进行经济转型的新起点。本文基于低碳经济和环境保护提出了低碳型环境保护指标评价体系和与之相关的低碳城市评价体系。研究首先介绍了当前经济发展状况和气体变暖的背景,对低碳经济发展相关研究和国外低碳经济发展经验进行了综述,在生态承载力理论,资源、环境、经济系统理论,新马尔萨斯人口理论环境库兹涅茨曲线等相关理论指导下,研究低碳经济和环境保护。通过对1985-2008年内生产总值、能源消费和二氧化碳排放量的时间序列分析得出,GDP是引起能源消费增加的原因,能源消费增加则不是GDP的原因,能源消费的增加是二氧化碳增加的原因,GDP与二氧化碳排放量增加的因果关系并不显著。因此,理论上可以实现经济增长与能源消费增加的脱钩,进而实现经济增长和二氧化碳排放的脱钩,降低温室气体排放。在环境质量评价模型基础上,通过分析温室效应及其作用机理,引入生态承载力概念,建立起以二氧化碳为主的温室气体排放的压力—状态—响应(PSR)模型,分析二氧化碳排放对整个经济社会的作用过程。从而,温室气体排放使得生态承载力越来越逼近极限,自然环境不断对社会发出预警信息,这需要全社会行动起来,做出应对二氧化碳排放持续增加的行动。在分析了Kaya公式后,采用灰色关联模型分析我国二氧化碳排放的影响因子,得出：能源消费对C02排放影响最大,其次是GDP,然后是人口数量、固定资产投资和居民消费。考虑到经济发展和环境保护的双赢,可从改善能源消费、控制人口数量、调节固定资产投资和引导居民消费方向等降低碳排放。在前面分析的基础上,根据科学性、系统性、可行性等原则,建立了低碳环境保护指标体系,构建以经济发展指标、低碳(科技)发展指标、社会发展指标、环境指标和政策指标为主的指标评价模型,从经济、科技、社会、环境和政策几个方面反映地区低碳型环境保护程度,评价和保护经济发展中的生态和人文环境。实证数据显示,我国低碳型环境保护综合评价指数连年递增,说明我国在发展低碳型环境保护方面快速提高。在此基础上,建立了低碳城市评价模型,以长沙为例进行了实证评价,提出了低碳城市建设路线图和实现路径。从理论上建立了低碳农业评价模型。针对我们在发展低碳经济现实情况,从优势、劣势、机会和威胁四个方面采用SWOT分析方法进行了战略分析。最后,依据评价模型提出我国低碳经济下环境保护的路径选择：加强碳源碳汇管理,推动发展低碳技术,引导公众参与低碳环保和强化国际合作等。
[Abstract]:Since the industrial revolution, mankind created enormous material wealth, the negative externality of environment has become increasingly prominent, the culprit is dominated by carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions increased.2003 in Britain proposed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions of the "low carbon economy", the countries in the world have begun to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Serious questions and challenges in the traditional high carbon economic development model, the development of low-carbon economy has become the new starting point of economic transition countries. In this paper, the low carbon economy and environmental protection are put forward based on the low carbon environmental protection index evaluation system and the related low carbon city evaluation system.
The research firstly introduces the current situation of economic development and gas warming, the development of low carbon economy in foreign related research and development of low carbon economy experience is summarized, the theory of ecological carrying capacity, resources, environment, economic system theory, relevant theories of Malthus's theory of new environmental Kuznets curve, and Research on low carbon economy the protection of the environment.
The GDP of 1985-2008 years, the time series of energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions of GDP is caused by the increase of energy consumption, increase of energy consumption is not the cause of GDP, the increase of energy consumption is due to increase of CO2, the causal relationship between GDP and two carbon dioxide emissions increase is not significant. So in theory, can realize the decoupling of economic growth and the increase of energy consumption, so as to realize the decoupling of economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions, reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
In the foundation of environmental quality evaluation model, through the analysis of the greenhouse effect and its mechanism, the introduction of the concept of ecological carrying capacity, establish the pressure state of greenhouse gases mainly carbon dioxide emissions response (PSR) model, analysis of carbon dioxide emission process of the whole economy and society. Thus, the ecological greenhouse gas emissions more and more close to the limit the bearing capacity of the natural environment, constantly on the social early warning information, it needs the whole society to act, respond to carbon dioxide emissions continue to rise.
In the analysis of the Kaya formula, using gray relational model analysis of the influencing factors, China's carbon dioxide emissions that the energy consumption effect on C02 emission maximum, followed by GDP, then the population, fixed assets investment and consumption. Considering the economic development and environmental protection of the win-win, from the improvement of the energy consumption control. The population, adjustment of fixed asset investment and guide the residents consumption direction to reduce carbon emissions.
Based on the above analysis, according to scientific, systematic, feasibility principle, establishes the index system of low carbon environmental protection, to construct the index of economic development, low carbon (Technology) development index, social development index, index evaluation model, environmental indicators and policy indicators from economy, technology, society and environment and policy aspects reflect the regional low-carbon environmental protection, evaluation and protection of economic development in the ecological and cultural environment. The empirical data show that China's low carbon environmental protection comprehensive evaluation index increased year after year, shows that China's rapid increase in the development of low-carbon environmental protection. On this basis, the establishment of low carbon city evaluation model to Changsha empirical evaluation, put forward the construction of low-carbon city route map and the realization of the path of low-carbon agriculture. Evaluation model is established in theory.
For us in the development of low carbon economy from the reality of the situation, advantages, disadvantages, opportunities and threats of the four aspects of using the SWOT analysis method of strategic analysis. Finally, based on the evaluation model put forward path selection of environmental protection of China's low carbon economy: strengthening carbon source carbon management, promote the development of low-carbon technologies, to guide public participation low carbon environmental protection and strengthen international cooperation.

【学位授予单位】：中南大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：X196;F224

【引证文献】