基于反弹效应的低碳技术投资优化配置

发布时间：2018-03-26 02:40

本文选题：反弹效应　切入点：低碳技术投资　出处：《山东大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着世界化石燃料消费的不断增加,二氧化碳的大量排放对全球生态系统造成了一定冲击。《巴黎协定》呼吁全球共同应对气候变暖问题,中国作为最大的发展中国家和二氧化碳排放国,在国际社会中面临着巨大的压力。因此,各种碳减排措施的效果分析、投融资设计等问题已成为学术界的研究热点。低碳技术投资可以提高能源利用效率,减少单位GDP的碳强度,是节能减排的重要政策工具之一。而能源反弹效应意味着,低碳技术进步所带来的节能减排效果被部分乃至全部地抵消。因此要制定有效的低碳投资战略,就需要基于反弹效应考虑低碳技术投资的影响因素以及低碳技术投资的优化配置。本文开发了一个简化的一般均衡模型来研究基于反弹效应的低碳技术投资效果的关键影响因素,并分为一国或多国、低碳技术投资外生或内生四种情况建立理论分析模型,考虑国家间的贸易和能源消费对社会福利的影响,研究在能源储量固定的情况下能源消费关于低碳技术投资的弹性关系并得出具体表达式,进而对低碳技术投资的影响因素进行数值模拟和敏感性分析。通过分析本文得出如下结论:(1)在一国低碳技术投资外生情形下,能源节约量对资本和能源的产出弹性的敏感性较小,而效用替代弹性较小时,能源节约量对效用替代弹性的敏感性较大,而随着效用替代弹性的增大,能源节约量对其的敏感性变小;(2)在一国低碳技术投资内生情形下,对低碳技术投资占总投资的比例和低碳技术投资的产出弹性而言,能源节约量关于低碳技术投资的弹性对两者的敏感性都较低;(3)在多国低碳技术投资外生情形下,进口国能源节约量对能源供给弹性的敏感性较大且能源供给弹性越接近0敏感性越大;能源节约量对效用替代弹性的敏感性较大而对能源进口比例的敏感性较小;(4)在多国低碳技术投资内生情形下,进口国能源使用量关于低碳技术投资的弹性对能源进口比例和低碳技术投资占比均较为敏感。
[Abstract]:With the increasing consumption of fossil fuels in the world, the massive emissions of carbon dioxide have had a certain impact on the global ecosystem. The Paris Agreement calls for a common global response to the problem of global warming. As the largest developing country and carbon dioxide emitter, China is facing tremendous pressure in the international community. Low carbon technology investment can improve energy use efficiency, reduce carbon intensity per unit of GDP, and is one of the important policy tools of energy saving and emission reduction. The effects of low-carbon technology progress on energy conservation and emission reduction have been partially or completely offset. Therefore, an effective low-carbon investment strategy should be developed. It is necessary to consider the influencing factors of low carbon technology investment and the optimal allocation of low carbon technology investment based on rebound effect. In this paper, a simplified general equilibrium model is developed to study the effect of low carbon technology investment based on rebound effect. Key influencing factors, And divided into one or more countries, low-carbon technology investment exogenous or endogenous four cases to establish a theoretical analysis model, considering the impact of inter-country trade and energy consumption on social welfare, The elastic relationship between energy consumption and low-carbon technology investment under the condition of fixed energy reserves is studied and the concrete expression is obtained. By analyzing the factors affecting low-carbon technology investment, the following conclusions are drawn: (1) in the case of a country's low carbon technology investment, Energy conservation is less sensitive to capital and energy output elasticity, while utility substitution elasticity is smaller, energy saving quantity is more sensitive to utility substitution elasticity, and with the increase of utility substitution elasticity, The sensitivity of energy conservation to it becomes smaller. In the case of endogenous low-carbon technology investment in a country, the proportion of low-carbon technology investment in total investment and the output elasticity of low-carbon technology investment, Energy savings the elasticity of investment in low-carbon technologies is less sensitive to both) in the case of multinational investment in low-carbon technologies, The energy conservation quantity in importing country is more sensitive to energy supply elasticity and the energy supply elasticity is closer to zero. Energy conservation is more sensitive to utility substitution elasticity and less sensitive to energy import ratio. The elasticity of energy use in importing countries on low carbon technology investment is sensitive to the proportion of energy imports and the proportion of low carbon technology investment.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F113.3;X196

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