理性经济泡沫：需求和供给分析

发布时间：2018-04-28 23:18

本文选题：泡沫 + 交叠世代模型　；参考：《复旦大学》2004年博士论文

【摘要】：本文的创意来自泰勒尔(Tirole,1985)模型的深化。在学习和兰查德和费希尔(Blanchard and Fischer.,1989)的高级宏观教程时,我发现第五章“泡沫”重点介绍了泰勒尔模型,思想简单有效,说服力强,技术要求也不高,很容易理解, 但是影响力颇深。泰勒尔模型是理性经济泡沫的经典文献,他在交叠世代(OLG)模型的框架下,得出经济处于戴蒙德动态无效(Diamond’s dynamic inefficiency)的状念 (rn,即实际利率小于人口增长率)时,引入泡沫可以吸收多余的投资,使经济重新回到动态有效状态,提高经济效率。泰勒尔的思想非常富有经济含义,对大规模资本投入推动的经济增长模式提出了一种深入思考的看法和衡量增长质量的标准。作者发现,泰勒尔模型并没有就泡沫供给量的变化和需求变化进行分析。同时,作者也发现同期另外一个著名文献——韦尔(Weil,1987)也没有分析这两个因素。通过在泰勒尔和韦尔模型中引入泡沫供给量变化率和人口增长率变化两个因素,在技术进步和泡沫破灭概率等不同经济环境下,分析了原有模型没有发展的内容。因此,本文主体部分第四章到第七章是一个纯理论的创新模型。新模型的结论非常丰富,特别对泡沫供给量的区间、均衡解、不同预期、人口和需求变化、技术进步和内生经济增长、不确定的泡沫、有基本价值的泡沫资产、福利水平等因素进行了一个比较完整地分析,得出了一些结论: 戴蒙德经济动态无效是泡沫存在的前提条件;修正后的经济动念有效 ss ss εn?σ 1 (Modifled Economic Dynamic Efficiency)条件是 r ≡ f ′( ) = t+1 kt+1 1+ σ p 稳念的泡沫存在限定了泡沫资产供给变化率ξ的大小。人均泡沫价值的变化率与实际利率变化率和泡沫资产供给变化率成正比,与泡沫资产价格在下期继续存在的概率的变化率和人口增长率变化率成反比。均衡状态时,不确定的泡沫需 I WP=6 1 要风险溢价补偿,其幅度( -1)于不确定性的大小。 p 泡沫供给和需求对投资、消费和福利等经济变量都产生重大影响。我们的模型对国有股减持和我国各地的房地产发展状况都有一定的理论指导意义。假如减持量非常大,而且按照市场价格减持,那么股市将偏离鞍点均衡路径,走向戴蒙德经济稳念,即股价崩溃。土地批租的速度是一个影响房价的非常关键的因素。文章的结构安排如下: 第一章“引论”提出研究泡沫的重要性,并且依次介绍了中国和发达国家房地产和股票这两大泡沫资产市场的历史,然后提出本文的理论渊源和理论创新, 最后是文章结构和主要结论; 第二章“文献综述之一:理论思想演变”从泡沫的经济学分析、非货币泡沫文献、货币泡沫文献和非理性泡沫文献四个角度介绍泡沫文献的理论思想演变; 第三章“文献综述之二:泡沫的技术工具”从货币理论与理性经济泡沫关系、三个基本的货币模型、理性预期框架下的理性泡沫、泰勒尔和韦尔模型介绍几个方面介绍了泡沫的一些技术工具; 第四章到第七章是本文的主要创新部分,发展了泰勒尔和韦尔模型,分为基本框架、泡沫供给量变化、显性表达式和封闭解、均衡分析、预期变化、人口变化、技术创新、不确定泡沫、基本价值泡沫资产、综合分析和福利分析等11个角度逐步深入分析,最后得出结论和对我国泡沫市场的一些建议。 II
[Abstract]:The originality of this article comes from the deepening of Teller (Tirole, 1985) model.
I found the fifth chapter "bubble" heavy in Blanchard and Fischer. (1989).
The paper introduces the Tyler model, which is simple, effective, persuasive and technical, and is easy to understand.
But it has a lot of influence.
The Tyler model is a classic document of rational economic bubble. He is in the framework of OLG model.
It is concluded that the economy is in Diamond's Diamond s dynamic inefficiency.
(RN, when the real interest rate is smaller than the population growth rate), the introduction of bubbles can absorb excess investment.
The economy returns to a dynamic and effective state and improves economic efficiency.
Teller's thought is very economic, and it refers to the mode of economic growth driven by massive capital investment.
There is a deep thinking and a standard for measuring the quality of growth. The author finds that the Tyler model does not exist.
The change of foam supply and demand changes were analyzed. Meanwhile, the author also found another famous in the same period.
The literature - Weil (1987) also did not analyze these two factors.
There are two factors in the changing rate of foam supply and the rate of population growth.
In the different economic environment such as rate, the content of the original model is not analyzed.
The four chapter to the seventh chapter is a pure theoretical innovation model.
The conclusion of the new model is very rich, especially for the interval of bubble supply, equilibrium solution, different expectations, people.
Changes in demand and demand, technological progress and endogenous economic growth, uncertain bubbles, and basic value of bubble capital.
A comprehensive analysis of factors such as production and welfare level has been made.
Diamond's inefficiency in economic development is the precondition for the existence of bubbles.
Ss ss e n? Sigma 1
The (Modifled Economic Dynamic Efficiency) condition is
R f '() = =
T+1 kt+1 1+ sigma p
The existence of steady bubbles limits the rate of change in the supply of foam assets. The change of the value of per capita bubble.
The rate is directly proportional to the rate of change in real interest rates and the rate of change in the supply of foam assets, and the price of bubble assets will continue in the next period.
The rate of change in existence is inversely proportional to the rate of change in population growth rate. In a balanced state, the uncertain bubble needs.
I
WP=6
One
To compensate for risk premium, the magnitude (-1) is the size of uncertainty.
P
Bubble supply and demand have a significant impact on economic variables such as investment, consumption and welfare.
Our model has certain theoretical implications for the reduction of state-owned shares and the development of real estate in different parts of China.
If the reduction is very large and the market price is reduced, the stock market will deviate from saddle point equilibrium.
Path to Diamond's economic stability, that is, the collapse of share prices. The speed of land leasing is a non price factor.
A often critical factor.
The structure of the article is as follows:
The first chapter "Introduction" puts forward the importance of studying bubbles, and introduces China and developed countries' houses in turn.
The history of real estate and stock market, the two largest bubble assets market, and then put forward the theoretical origin and theoretical innovation of this article.
The last is the structure and main conclusion of the article.
The second chapter, "one of the literature review: the evolution of theoretical thinking" from the economic analysis of bubbles, non monetary bubbles.
Literature, currency bubble literature and irrational bubble literature introduce four aspects of the evolution of the theoretical thinking of bubble literature.
The third chapter, "two of the literature review: the technical tools of bubbles" is based on the relationship between monetary theory and rational economic bubble.
Three basic monetary models, rational bubbles under the rational expectation framework, and several models introduced by Tyler and Weil models.
Some technical tools of foam are introduced.
The fourth chapter to the seventh chapter is the main innovation part of this paper, and develops the Teller and weir model.
This framework, changes in bubble supply, explicit expressions and closed solutions, equilibrium analysis, expected change, demographic change
11 technologies: innovation, technological innovation, uncertain bubble, basic value, bubble assets, comprehensive analysis and welfare analysis.
From the angle of in-depth analysis, we finally come to some conclusions and suggestions for China's bubble market.
II

【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2004
【分类号】：F019

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