开放体系经济稳定增长条件的实证分析

发布时间：2018-05-05 15:58

本文选题：开放经济体系 + 经常项目　；参考：《上海海运学院》2002年硕士论文

【摘要】： 政策配合理论可以说是目前最有说服力的国际收支理论及宏观经济调节理论，但和其他任何理论一样，该理论也不可能是完美无缺的。政策配合理论仅仅是在它的假设前提和理论框架之内提出解决国际收支失衡的政策途径，而没有能够解决国际收支失衡或实现平衡的具体条件，也没有能确定政策相互配合的具体力度。潘国陵老师在《国际金融理论与数量分析方法》一书中，提出了一种新的解决国际收支和国际债务失衡的数量分析方法，文章运用经济学和数学方法推导出国外净资产和经常项目收支动态方程，初步揭示了国外净资产和经常项目收支与其他经济变量之间的内在联系。这些经济变量包括：国内总产出增长率g、国民储蓄率s、国内资本产出率σ、国外净资产产出率ρ、汇率R、初始时经常项目收支差额与产出比b、初始时国外净资产与产出比f及政府财政赤字与产出比h等。得出了保持经常项目收支平衡和国外净资产平衡的临界条件，以及实现经常项目收支逆转和国外净资产逆转(顺差——逆差，或逆差——顺差)的经济稳定增长条件。本文是一篇实证研究型文章。文章首先比较分析了这一新的国际收支理论的特点，以及与政策配合理论的主要区别；然后提出有关实证研究的方法，并对美国的经济状况进行了具体验证。在过去40多年中，美国的宏观经济运行比较典型，60年代初至70年代末美国一直是资本输出国(国外净资产大于零)，并且保持经常项目顺差，到了80年代以后逐步变成了资本输入国(国外净资产小于零)，经常项目也发生了逆转，从而将美国经济划分为两个阶段。文章计算每一阶段的有关参数，分别验证两阶段国外净资产和经常项目逆转的经济稳定增长条件是否与文的结论相符。根据验证的结果，分析了这一新的国际收支理论的适用性问题。文章还对文的结论进行分析，得出在不同初始条件下，实现经常项目收支逆转或国外净资产逆转的政策选择。通过对二战后美国两阶段参数的比较，分析了各参数的变化趋势，验证各参数的变化与实现经常项目收支逆转或国外净资产逆转的政策选择是否一致。最后，本文还根据美国现阶段经常项目或国外净资产的特点，，讨论美国今后一阶段实现经常项目收支逆转或国外净资产逆转的经济稳定增长条件，并分析发生逆转的可能性。通过本文的实证研究，大大增强了该新的国际收支理论的说服力和实用性，同时，也发现其缺点和不足之处，这将激励我们去做更进一步的研究。
[Abstract]:The theory of policy cooperation can be said to be the most convincing theory of balance of payments and macroeconomic adjustment, but like any other theory, this theory can not be perfect. The theory of policy cooperation is only within its hypothetical premise and theoretical framework to put forward the policy approach to solve the balance of payments imbalance, but there are no specific conditions to solve the balance of payments imbalance or achieve balance of payments. Nor has it been possible to determine the specific strength of policy coordination. In his book International Finance Theory and quantitative Analysis methods, teacher Pan Guoling proposed a new quantitative analysis method for solving the balance of payments and international debt imbalances. In this paper, the dynamic equations of foreign net assets and current account income and expenditure are derived by using economic and mathematical methods, and the internal relations between foreign net assets and current account income and expenditure and other economic variables are preliminarily revealed. These economic variables include: gross domestic output growth rate g, national savings rate s, domestic capital output ratio 蟽, foreign net asset output ratio 蟻, exchange rate R, initial current account balance and output ratio b, initial foreign net assets and output Output ratio f and government budget deficit to output ratio h and so on. The critical conditions for maintaining current account balance and foreign net asset balance are obtained, as well as the stable economic growth conditions for realizing current account revenue and expenditure reversal and foreign net asset reversal (surplus-deficit or deficit-surplus). This article is an empirical research article. This paper first compares and analyzes the characteristics of this new balance of payments theory and the main differences between it and the policy coordination theory, then puts forward some empirical research methods, and verifies the economic situation of the United States. For more than 40 years, the United States has been a capital exporter from the early 1960s to the late 1970s (with net foreign assets greater than zero and running a current-account surplus). By the 1980s, it had gradually become an importer of capital (net foreign assets were less than zero and the current account had been reversed, dividing the American economy into two stages. This paper calculates the relevant parameters of each stage and verifies whether the conditions for stable economic growth in the two-stage foreign net assets and current account reversals are in accordance with the conclusions of the paper. According to the results of verification, the applicability of this new balance of payments theory is analyzed. The paper also analyzes the conclusions of the paper and draws the policy choice of realizing the reversal of current account income and expenditure or foreign net assets under different initial conditions. By comparing the two stage parameters of the United States after World War II, this paper analyzes the changing trend of each parameter, and verifies whether the change of each parameter is consistent with the policy choice of realizing the reversal of current account income and expenditure or the reversal of foreign net assets. Finally, according to the characteristics of current account or foreign net assets in the United States at present, this paper discusses the conditions of stable economic growth for the realization of current-account or foreign net asset reversals in the future in the United States, and analyzes the possibility of such a reversal. The empirical research in this paper greatly enhances the persuasiveness and practicability of the new balance of payments theory, and at the same time, finds its shortcomings and shortcomings, which will encourage us to do further research.
【学位授予单位】：上海海运学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2002
【分类号】：F015

【共引文献】