碳交易背景下中国石化行业2020年碳减排目标情景分析

发布时间：2018-05-18 15:44

本文选题：PCCGE模型 + 石化行业　；参考：《中国人口·资源与环境》2017年10期

【摘要】：石化行业作为中国八大典型高碳排放产业之一,也是碳市场参与的重要行业。在国家2020年碳排放强度目标的约束下,客观评价其行业减碳的压力,对于政府部门科学制定各个行业碳排放配额的分配方案具有重要支撑作用。同时,亦对于通过低碳转型升级实现行业的可持续发展和支撑国家的工业减排目标具有理论和现实意义。本文针对石化行业9个子部门,结合我国经济发展的总体背景和趋势以及石化行业的相关数据,以2010年为基准情景,在2020年国家碳排放强度分别下降45%和50%的减排约束目标下,构建了一个动态CGE模型——PCCGE,借助GAMS软件模拟分析,预测了到2020年国家和石化行业经济总量、能源消费结构和碳排放量及碳强度等的变化趋势。研究结果表明,相比基准情景,在45%、50%的碳强度减排目标下,国家和石化行业的经济增长、能源消费结构和碳排放强度等指标分别受到一定程度影响,其中,50%的减排目标对国家整体经济增速影响更为明显;对煤炭、石油这两种高碳能源的需求产生了较显著的约束效应;相比国家45%—50%的低碳发展目标,石化行业减碳承受压力达到60.63%至64.78%,面临着艰巨的减排任务与挑战。最后,文章结合低碳市场化背景提出了如下建议:科学预测典型高碳行业的减碳潜力,谨慎应对石化等行业企业参与碳市场交易过程中碳配额指标的制定与分配;充分利用技术创新和能源结构调整等战略,提高可再生能源的使用规模,促进能源消耗结构的优化和调整;构建石化行业节能低碳技术产学研协同创新体系,解决共性节能技术瓶颈;实施石化行业企业低碳发展战略,建设完善碳排放管理体系是行业节能减碳的重要手段。
[Abstract]:Petrochemical industry, as one of the eight typical high carbon emission industries in China, is also an important industry in which the carbon market participates. Under the restriction of the national carbon emission intensity target 2020, the objective evaluation of the pressure of carbon reduction plays an important supporting role for government departments to scientifically formulate the allocation scheme of carbon emission quotas in various industries. At the same time, it is of theoretical and practical significance to realize the sustainable development of the industry through low-carbon transformation and upgrade and to support the national industrial emission reduction target. In this paper, according to the overall background and trend of China's economic development and the relevant data of petrochemical industry, taking 2010 as the benchmark scenario, the national carbon emission intensity will be reduced by 45% and 50% respectively in 2020, under the restraint target of reducing carbon emissions by 45% and 50% respectively. A dynamic CGE model, PCCGE, is constructed. By means of GAMS software simulation and analysis, the trends of national and petrochemical economy, energy consumption structure, carbon emission and carbon intensity are predicted by 2020. The results show that compared with the baseline scenario, the economic growth, energy consumption structure and carbon emission intensity of national and petrochemical industries are affected to some extent under the 45% carbon intensity reduction target. Among them, the 50% emission reduction target has a more significant impact on the overall economic growth of the country; it has a more significant constraint effect on the demand for coal and oil, two kinds of high-carbon energy; compared with the national low carbon development target of 45% to 50%, The pressure of carbon reduction in petrochemical industry is 60.63% to 64.78%. Finally, according to the background of low-carbon marketization, the paper puts forward the following suggestions: scientific prediction of carbon reduction potential of typical high-carbon industries, careful response to the establishment and distribution of carbon quota indicators in the process of carbon market trading for petrochemical and other enterprises; Make full use of the strategies of technological innovation and energy structure adjustment, improve the scale of renewable energy use, promote the optimization and adjustment of energy consumption structure, and build a collaborative innovation system of energy saving, low carbon technology, industry, education and research in petrochemical industry, To solve the bottleneck of common energy-saving technology, to implement the low-carbon development strategy of petrochemical industry enterprises, and to build and improve the carbon emission management system are the important means to save energy and reduce carbon.
【作者单位】：北京化工大学经济管理学院;北京化工大学低碳经济与管理研究中心;
【基金】：国家科技支撑计划项目“我国化工行业碳排放核查关键技术研究与示范”(批准号:2013BAK15B04) 国家重点研发计划课题“支撑碳排放交易的典型共性技术与标准研究及集成应用示范”(批准号:2016YFF0204400) 北京市哲学社会科学基金项目“京津冀地区重点监控企业环境信息披露评价研究”(批准号:14JGB040)
【分类号】：F426.72;X196;X322

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