经济长波:现象、理论与展望

发布时间：2018-07-03 08:34

本文选题：经济长波 + 技术创新　；参考：《技术经济》2017年01期

【摘要】：综合已有文献,对经济长波现象、经济长波理论的相关研究进行了综述,在此基础上提出了经济长波理论的未来研究方向。总结如下:经济长波现象即经济发展过程中存在长度为40~60年、平均为50年的经济周期;从价格等观察变量开始的单一精确计量在经济长波现象发现过程中发挥了相当重要的作用,但并未为经济长波存在提供确凿证据,综合多种因素的多元推论历史模型可用来阐释经济长波的存在性;对经济长波的界定以周期性这一本质特性为前提,从狭义向广义发展,即从单纯经济变量发展到经济-社会-制度因素的组合;学者们对过去200多年已发生5次经济长波取得了基本一致的认识,但是在确切年份上因方法和数据的差异而略有不同;创新、战争、核心技术要素、多要素平衡与失衡是经济长波产生的主要因素,历次经济长波一般会伴随着技术或关键要素、产品或服务、基础设施、产业聚集和组织结构的变化。未来研究可从产业结构变化的角度研究经济长波的发生机理。
[Abstract]:Based on the literature, this paper summarizes the economic long wave phenomenon and the economic long wave theory, and puts forward the future research direction of the economic long wave theory. The main conclusions are as follows: the economic long wave phenomenon is the economic cycle with a length of 40 ~ 60 years and an average of 50 years in the process of economic development; The single accurate measurement, which starts from the observation variables such as price, plays a very important role in the process of discovering the long wave phenomenon of economy, but it does not provide conclusive evidence for the existence of the long wave of economy. The multivariate corollary historical model which synthesizes many factors can be used to explain the existence of economic long wave, and the definition of economic long wave is based on the essential characteristic of periodicity, and develops from narrow sense to broad sense. That is, from the simple economic variable to the combination of the economic, social and institutional factors, scholars have made a basic consensus on the five long economic waves that have taken place in the past 200 years, but in the exact year they are slightly different because of the difference in methods and data. Innovation, war, core technological elements, balance and imbalance of multiple elements are the main factors that produce the long wave of economy, which is usually accompanied by technology or key elements, products or services, infrastructure, Industrial agglomeration and changes in organizational structure. In the future, we can study the mechanism of economic long wave from the angle of industrial structure change.
【作者单位】：清华大学技术创新研究中心;清华大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地清华大学技术创新研究中心自设项目“科学技术革命、经济长波与战略新兴产业发展研究”(20125000057) 清华大学自主科研计划中国社会经济文化重大专项“智能制造时代我国制造业技术创新能力研究”(2015THZWSH07)
【分类号】：F091.3

【参考文献】