黑龙江省土地利用变化的碳排放效应研究
发布时间：2018-07-15 12:31
【摘要】：随着我国社会经济的迅猛发展,碳排放量不断上升,并严重影响气候变化,加快了气候变暖的步伐。已有研究表明:土地利用变化是造成碳排放增加的重要因素之一,其作用仅次于化石燃料的燃烧。由土地利用类型结构变化所产生的碳排放量占人类总碳排放量的30%之多。黑龙江省是我国重要商品粮基地,但随着近几年经济增长迅速以及对粮食增产的迫切希望,土地利用变化强烈,碳排放量也持续增加,据有关学者研究,2001—2007年黑龙江省碳排放增加了55%,其导致的气候变暖、降水异常等现象对粮食安全造成了严重影响。在如此背景下,本文选取黑龙江省为研究对象,分析2004-2012年各土地利用类型变化情况,利用相关模型研究土地利用变化强度和效益;选取适宜的碳排放核算模型,对黑龙江省各土地利用类型的碳排放/吸收量进行核算,并对碳排放量的变化情况及趋势进行定量分析;通过研究土地利用碳排放边际变动、分析碳排放强度的时空变化,对黑龙江省土地利用碳排放的区际效应进行分析,分析黑龙江省土地利用变化的碳排放效应,最后从分别“碳减排”和“碳增汇”两个方面提出相关对策及建议,以期为黑龙江省低碳土地利用提供依据和决策支持。主要结论如下:(1)黑龙江省2004-2012年间土地利用变化剧烈。变化幅度上,耕地、建设用地分别增加401.6万公顷、2.62万公顷,耕地面积变化幅度最大,其增加的速度大于建设用地增加速度;林地、牧草地、园地呈减少趋势,减少面积分别为114.82万公顷、16.87万公顷、1.52万公顷,减少的速度分别是:园地牧草地林地。(2)9a间土地利用碳排放量总体上呈现增长态势,变化幅度较为明显,从2004年的36283.82万吨增长到2012年的90471.49万吨,增副达到149%。从总体趋势变化上看可归纳为两个阶段:第一阶段:2004-2011年,为快速增长期,总量增加了55214.44万吨,增幅达到152.2%;第二阶段:2011-2012年,为平稳下降期,总量减少了1026.77万吨,下降了1.1%。(3)从各土地利用类型来看,建设用地和耕地表现为碳源,耕地、林地、牧草地和园地表现为碳汇。区域碳排放绝大部分来自于建设用地,尽管农用地碳排放持续增长,但其绝对量相对很小,对碳排放影响不大;耕地碳吸收呈现不规律波动;碳汇主要是耕地和林地,草地和园地由于面积原因对碳吸收影响很小;净碳排放量整体呈现上涨趋势,总碳排放量和净碳排放量变化趋势保持一致,其中碳排放量绝大部分来自于建设用地;地均碳排放强度、地均建设用地碳排放强度与工业经济发展水平呈正比例关系,因此,今后应重点控制建设用地上的碳排放。(4)黑龙江省碳排放区际差异非常明显,碳排放大部分集中于南部的齐齐哈尔市、大庆市、绥化市、哈尔滨市四个地级市,2010年四者碳排放量占到全省的58.17%,伊春市、大兴安岭地区、牡丹江市碳排放总量和碳排放强度较低,其中伊春市碳排放强度在13个地级市中最低,仅为4.19吨/公顷。土地利用结构中尤其是建设用地比例高低直接影响着碳排放强度的大小。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's social and economic development, carbon emissions are increasing, and climate change has been seriously affected and the pace of climate warming is accelerated. It has been shown that the change of land use is one of the most important factors for the increase of carbon emissions, and its role is second only to the burning of fossil fuels. Heilongjiang is an important commodity grain base in China. However, Heilongjiang province is an important commodity grain base in China. However, with the rapid economic growth and the urgent hope of increasing grain production in recent years, the change of land use is strong and the carbon emission is also increasing. According to the research of relevant scholars, the carbon emissions of Heilongjiang province increased by 55% in 2001 to 2007, and the gas caused by them has been increased. In this context, this paper selects Heilongjiang as the research object, analyzes the change of land use types in 2004-2012 years, uses the related models to study the intensity and benefit of land use change, and selects the appropriate carbon emission accounting model for each land in Heilongjiang province. The carbon emission and absorption of types are used to calculate the change and trend of carbon emissions, and the spatial and temporal changes of carbon emission intensity are analyzed by studying the marginal changes of carbon emissions from land use, and the interregional effects of land use carbon emissions in Heilongjiang province are analyzed, and the carbon of land use changes in Heilongjiang province is analyzed. In order to provide the basis and decision support for the low carbon land use in Heilongjiang, the main conclusions are as follows: (1) the land use change of Heilongjiang Province in 2004-2012 years is fierce. The change range, cultivated land and construction land are increased by 4 million 16 thousand respectively. Hectare, 26 thousand and 200 hectares, the largest change in cultivated land area, its increase speed is greater than the construction land increase speed; woodland, pasture, garden area is reduced, the area is 1 million 148 thousand and 200 hectares, 168 thousand and 700 hectares, 15 thousand and 200 hectares, respectively, the rate of reduction is: Garden pasture and grassland. (2) the carbon emissions of land use among 9A is generally present The current growth trend is more obvious, from 362 million 838 thousand and 200 tons in 2004 to 904 million 714 thousand and 900 tons in 2012. The increase of 149%. can be summed up in two stages from the general trend: the first stage: 2004-2011 years, for the rapid growth period, the total amount increased by 552 million 144 thousand and 400 tons, the increase reached 152.2%; the second stage: 2011-2012 years, flat. The steady decline period, the total amount reduced by 10 million 267 thousand and 700 tons, decreased by 1.1%. (3) from the land use types, the construction land and cultivated land showed carbon source, cultivated land, woodland, pasture land and garden land showed carbon sequestration. The vast majority of the carbon emissions from the area were from the construction land, although the carbon emissions of agricultural land were increasing, but the absolute amount of carbon emissions was relatively small, and carbon emissions were relatively small. The carbon absorption of cultivated land showed irregular fluctuation; the carbon sequestration was mainly cultivated land and woodland, the grassland and the garden land had little influence on carbon absorption because of the area; the net carbon emissions overall showed a rising trend, the total carbon emission and the net carbon emission trend remained consistent, and most of the carbon emissions were from the construction land; Carbon emission intensity, land average construction land carbon emission intensity and industrial economic development level has a positive proportional relationship, therefore, in the future, we should focus on controlling the carbon emissions in the construction land. (4) the inter regional difference of carbon emissions in Heilongjiang province is very obvious, most of the carbon emissions are concentrated in the Qigihar, Daqing, Suihua and Harbin cities in the southern part of the city. In 2010, four carbon emissions accounted for 58.17% of the whole province. The total carbon emission and carbon emission intensity of Yichun, Greater Khingan Range and Mudanjiang were low. The carbon emission intensity of Yichun was the lowest in 13 cities, only 4.19 tons / hectare. The proportion of land use structure, especially the construction land ratio, had a direct impact on the carbon emission intensity. Small.
【学位授予单位】：东北农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F301.2;X196
本文编号：2124084
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's social and economic development, carbon emissions are increasing, and climate change has been seriously affected and the pace of climate warming is accelerated. It has been shown that the change of land use is one of the most important factors for the increase of carbon emissions, and its role is second only to the burning of fossil fuels. Heilongjiang is an important commodity grain base in China. However, Heilongjiang province is an important commodity grain base in China. However, with the rapid economic growth and the urgent hope of increasing grain production in recent years, the change of land use is strong and the carbon emission is also increasing. According to the research of relevant scholars, the carbon emissions of Heilongjiang province increased by 55% in 2001 to 2007, and the gas caused by them has been increased. In this context, this paper selects Heilongjiang as the research object, analyzes the change of land use types in 2004-2012 years, uses the related models to study the intensity and benefit of land use change, and selects the appropriate carbon emission accounting model for each land in Heilongjiang province. The carbon emission and absorption of types are used to calculate the change and trend of carbon emissions, and the spatial and temporal changes of carbon emission intensity are analyzed by studying the marginal changes of carbon emissions from land use, and the interregional effects of land use carbon emissions in Heilongjiang province are analyzed, and the carbon of land use changes in Heilongjiang province is analyzed. In order to provide the basis and decision support for the low carbon land use in Heilongjiang, the main conclusions are as follows: (1) the land use change of Heilongjiang Province in 2004-2012 years is fierce. The change range, cultivated land and construction land are increased by 4 million 16 thousand respectively. Hectare, 26 thousand and 200 hectares, the largest change in cultivated land area, its increase speed is greater than the construction land increase speed; woodland, pasture, garden area is reduced, the area is 1 million 148 thousand and 200 hectares, 168 thousand and 700 hectares, 15 thousand and 200 hectares, respectively, the rate of reduction is: Garden pasture and grassland. (2) the carbon emissions of land use among 9A is generally present The current growth trend is more obvious, from 362 million 838 thousand and 200 tons in 2004 to 904 million 714 thousand and 900 tons in 2012. The increase of 149%. can be summed up in two stages from the general trend: the first stage: 2004-2011 years, for the rapid growth period, the total amount increased by 552 million 144 thousand and 400 tons, the increase reached 152.2%; the second stage: 2011-2012 years, flat. The steady decline period, the total amount reduced by 10 million 267 thousand and 700 tons, decreased by 1.1%. (3) from the land use types, the construction land and cultivated land showed carbon source, cultivated land, woodland, pasture land and garden land showed carbon sequestration. The vast majority of the carbon emissions from the area were from the construction land, although the carbon emissions of agricultural land were increasing, but the absolute amount of carbon emissions was relatively small, and carbon emissions were relatively small. The carbon absorption of cultivated land showed irregular fluctuation; the carbon sequestration was mainly cultivated land and woodland, the grassland and the garden land had little influence on carbon absorption because of the area; the net carbon emissions overall showed a rising trend, the total carbon emission and the net carbon emission trend remained consistent, and most of the carbon emissions were from the construction land; Carbon emission intensity, land average construction land carbon emission intensity and industrial economic development level has a positive proportional relationship, therefore, in the future, we should focus on controlling the carbon emissions in the construction land. (4) the inter regional difference of carbon emissions in Heilongjiang province is very obvious, most of the carbon emissions are concentrated in the Qigihar, Daqing, Suihua and Harbin cities in the southern part of the city. In 2010, four carbon emissions accounted for 58.17% of the whole province. The total carbon emission and carbon emission intensity of Yichun, Greater Khingan Range and Mudanjiang were low. The carbon emission intensity of Yichun was the lowest in 13 cities, only 4.19 tons / hectare. The proportion of land use structure, especially the construction land ratio, had a direct impact on the carbon emission intensity. Small.
【学位授予单位】：东北农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F301.2;X196
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