项目投资风险分析方法与实证研究
发布时间：2018-09-15 19:52
【摘要】： 随着世界经济一体化的发展，企业面临的竞争日趋激烈，企业投资活动中不确定因素日益增多，，各投资项目的实施面临更多的风险，并且风险损失的规模也越来越大，因此对投资项目而言，除了进行可行性研究外，还必须进行全面的项目风险分析。本文从企业的角度出发，探讨了建设项目投资中风险的识别、量化和评估的原则、方法和技术，并通过武汉市银行机具厂“全自动捆钞机”项目对这些风险分析方法和技术进行了实证研究。 本文的理论研究部分，剖析了对一个工程项目进行风险分析的三个步骤：风险识别、风险估计和风险评价，介绍了专家调查法(包括个人判断法、头脑风暴法和德尔菲法)、故障树分析法、幕景分析法、筛选—监测—诊断技术、风险来源表和核对表等风险识别常用方法，以及盈亏平衡分析、敏感性分析、主观评分法、层次分析法、风险报酬法、风险当量法、决策树法、外推法、解析法、蒙特卡罗模拟法等风险评估方法。 在实证研究部分，本文对武汉市银行机具厂的“全自动捆钞机”项目进行了全面的风险分析，并提出了对该项目有指导意义的实施方案。文中首先用风险来源表、风险核对表辨识出该项目各个阶段、各个层面的经济风险和组织风险，然后用风险报酬法、决策树法、解析法和蒙特卡洛模拟法对这些风险作了分析和评估，并分析了其对项目财务评价指标和项目实施的影响。 本文运用工程经济学、现代管理科学和风险分析等多种学科的知识、理论与方法，采用定量分析与定性分析相结合，解析法、调查法与计算机模拟技术相结合的研究方法，以具体的工程项目为背景，剖析了投资项目风险分析的全过程，为企业进行投资风险分析、减少项目投资活动带来的风险损失提供了参考，具有较强的实用性和可操作性。
[Abstract]:With the development of the world economic integration, enterprises are facing more and more fierce competition, the uncertain factors in the enterprise investment activities are increasing day by day, the implementation of each investment project faces more and more risks, and the scale of risk loss is becoming larger and larger. Therefore, in addition to the feasibility study, it is necessary to carry out a comprehensive project risk analysis for the investment project. This paper discusses the principles, methods and techniques of risk identification, quantification and evaluation in construction project investment from the point of view of enterprise. The risk analysis methods and techniques are studied empirically through the project of "automatic banknote binding machine" in Wuhan bank tool factory. In the part of theoretical research, the paper analyzes three steps of risk analysis for a project: risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation, and introduces the method of expert investigation (including individual judgment method). Brainstorming and Delphi), fault tree analysis, scene analysis, screening-monitoring-diagnosis techniques, risk source lists and checklists, as well as breakeven analysis, sensitivity analysis, subjective scoring, etc. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP), risk reward method, risk equivalent method, decision tree method, extrapolation method, analytical method, Monte Carlo simulation and other risk assessment methods. In the part of empirical research, this paper makes a comprehensive risk analysis on the project of "automatic banknote binding machine" in Wuhan City Bank tool Factory, and puts forward a guiding scheme for the project. In this paper, we first use the risk source table and the risk checklist to identify the economic risks and organizational risks at all levels of the project, and then we use the risk reward method and the decision tree method. The analytical method and Monte Carlo simulation analysis and evaluation of these risks and analysis of the impact on the project financial evaluation indicators and project implementation. This paper applies the knowledge, theories and methods of engineering economics, modern management science and risk analysis, and adopts the research method of combining quantitative analysis with qualitative analysis, analytical method, investigation method and computer simulation technology. Taking the concrete project as the background, this paper analyzes the whole process of investment project risk analysis, which provides a reference for enterprises to carry out investment risk analysis and reduces the risk loss caused by project investment activities. It has strong practicability and maneuverability.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2002
【分类号】：F062.4
本文编号：2244342
[Abstract]:With the development of the world economic integration, enterprises are facing more and more fierce competition, the uncertain factors in the enterprise investment activities are increasing day by day, the implementation of each investment project faces more and more risks, and the scale of risk loss is becoming larger and larger. Therefore, in addition to the feasibility study, it is necessary to carry out a comprehensive project risk analysis for the investment project. This paper discusses the principles, methods and techniques of risk identification, quantification and evaluation in construction project investment from the point of view of enterprise. The risk analysis methods and techniques are studied empirically through the project of "automatic banknote binding machine" in Wuhan bank tool factory. In the part of theoretical research, the paper analyzes three steps of risk analysis for a project: risk identification, risk estimation and risk evaluation, and introduces the method of expert investigation (including individual judgment method). Brainstorming and Delphi), fault tree analysis, scene analysis, screening-monitoring-diagnosis techniques, risk source lists and checklists, as well as breakeven analysis, sensitivity analysis, subjective scoring, etc. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP), risk reward method, risk equivalent method, decision tree method, extrapolation method, analytical method, Monte Carlo simulation and other risk assessment methods. In the part of empirical research, this paper makes a comprehensive risk analysis on the project of "automatic banknote binding machine" in Wuhan City Bank tool Factory, and puts forward a guiding scheme for the project. In this paper, we first use the risk source table and the risk checklist to identify the economic risks and organizational risks at all levels of the project, and then we use the risk reward method and the decision tree method. The analytical method and Monte Carlo simulation analysis and evaluation of these risks and analysis of the impact on the project financial evaluation indicators and project implementation. This paper applies the knowledge, theories and methods of engineering economics, modern management science and risk analysis, and adopts the research method of combining quantitative analysis with qualitative analysis, analytical method, investigation method and computer simulation technology. Taking the concrete project as the background, this paper analyzes the whole process of investment project risk analysis, which provides a reference for enterprises to carry out investment risk analysis and reduces the risk loss caused by project investment activities. It has strong practicability and maneuverability.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2002
【分类号】：F062.4
【引证文献】
相关硕士学位论文 前1条
1 雍正韬;KG企业钛材加工项目可行性分析[D];云南大学;2010年
本文编号：2244342
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