我国宏观经济的预测检验和分析
发布时间：2018-10-10 17:29
【摘要】： 预测就是在研究历史和现状的基础上，根据事物的客观规律对其未来的发展变化做出科学的推测。经济预测是在商品生产和商品交换的过程中产生的，是应国家制定经济政策和工商企业进行经营管理决策的之需而发展起来的。由于经济预测误差的出现存在必然性，所以预测检验问题是经济预测这一过程众多环节中的最后一个必要的环节。它作为一个信息传导的桥梁，不断地根据现有模型所能得出的结果提炼出修正模型的必要信息，并反馈给现有模型，从而提高模型的预测精度。关于预测准确性检验可以划分为两种方法，一种是依靠模型(model-based)的方法，另一种是脱离模型(model-free)的方法。随着社会主义市场经济改革的深入发展，我国对经济预测的重视程度也越来越高。从1992年开始，每年出版的《经济蓝皮书》都对我国宏观经济走势进行预测分析。本文则选取1992至2000年间《蓝皮书》中各单位的研究论文作为研究对象，，对其所预测的国民经济的各项主要经济指标进行分析，总结九年来经济预测的经验，探索经济系统中的内在规律。
[Abstract]:Based on the study of history and present situation, prediction is to make scientific speculation on the future development and change of things according to their objective laws. Economic forecast is produced in the process of commodity production and commodity exchange. It is developed in response to the needs of the government to formulate economic policies and the business enterprises to make management decisions. Because of the inevitability of economic prediction error, the problem of forecasting test is the last necessary link in the process of economic prediction. As a bridge of information transmission, it continuously extracts the necessary information of the modified model according to the results obtained by the existing model, and feeds back to the existing model, thus improving the prediction accuracy of the model. The prediction accuracy test can be divided into two methods, one is based on model (model-based) method, the other is the method of breaking away from model (model-free). With the development of socialist market economy reform, our country pays more and more attention to economic forecast. Since 1992, China's macroeconomic trend has been forecasted and analyzed in the Blue Book of economy published every year. This paper selects the research papers of each unit in the Blue Book from 1992 to 2000 as the research object, analyzes the main economic indicators of the national economy predicted by the Blue Book, and sums up the experience of economic forecast in the past nine years. Explore the internal laws of the economic system.
【学位授予单位】：中国社会科学院研究生院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2002
【分类号】：F015
[Abstract]:Based on the study of history and present situation, prediction is to make scientific speculation on the future development and change of things according to their objective laws. Economic forecast is produced in the process of commodity production and commodity exchange. It is developed in response to the needs of the government to formulate economic policies and the business enterprises to make management decisions. Because of the inevitability of economic prediction error, the problem of forecasting test is the last necessary link in the process of economic prediction. As a bridge of information transmission, it continuously extracts the necessary information of the modified model according to the results obtained by the existing model, and feeds back to the existing model, thus improving the prediction accuracy of the model. The prediction accuracy test can be divided into two methods, one is based on model (model-based) method, the other is the method of breaking away from model (model-free). With the development of socialist market economy reform, our country pays more and more attention to economic forecast. Since 1992, China's macroeconomic trend has been forecasted and analyzed in the Blue Book of economy published every year. This paper selects the research papers of each unit in the Blue Book from 1992 to 2000 as the research object, analyzes the main economic indicators of the national economy predicted by the Blue Book, and sums up the experience of economic forecast in the past nine years. Explore the internal laws of the economic system.
【学位授予单位】：中国社会科学院研究生院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2002
【分类号】：F015
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