市场化的增长与波动效应

发布时间：2018-10-24 06:36

【摘要】： 毫无疑问，中国的市场化改革提高了经济增长率，改变了经济的波动方式。与其他研究市场化改革的经济学文献不同，本文并不试图解释为什么要进行市场化改革，为什么会选择这样或那样的市场化道路，以及究竟应该选择哪种市场化道路，本文试图理解中国现实的市场化过程是如何影响中国的经济增长与波动的。本文首先按照经济增长理论和现代宏观经济学所总结的有关经济增长和经济波动的特征事实，检验了中国市场化过程中的经济增长和宏观波动情况，结果发现，中国的经济增长与波动也基本符合这些增长理论和宏观经济学赖以成立的现实基础。但是仍有以下需要特别加以解释的事实：中国改革以后的产出增长率和资本存量的增长率远远高于改革以前；改革以后经济波动幅度远远小于改革以前；改革以后国有经济的产出和资本积累仍然在一段时间内保持高速增长；国有经济的资本产出比呈现出一种明显的上升趋势；中国的失业率与经济增长率之间并没有表现出类似奥肯定律的规律等。这些特征事实，需要从中国的市场化过程来寻找答案。本文将中国的市场化过程理解为两个过程的结合，一是政府逐步放松对经济的管制，二是非国有经济逐步壮大。基于对市场化过程的这种理解，本文建立了一个包含国有和非国有经济的两部门模型。两部门之间存在资源的互相转移，国有经济部门通过工资支出向居民和非国有经济部门转移资源，非国有经济部门通过居民储蓄存款向国有经济部门转移资源。正是国有和非国有经济部门之间的资源转移使中国市场化过程中的增长与波动具有不同的特征。放松投资管制，允许居民投资和自己组织生产，会导致非国有经济部门的成长，这是中国市场化过程的起点。由于在放松投资管制的过程中，仍然对非国有经济部门实行了较严格的融资管制，伴随非国有经济成长的居民储蓄存款增长，，使国有经济部门在市场化过程中获得了更多的投资资源，加速了国有经济部门的资本积累和经济增长。因此，放松投资管制在促进非国有经济部门的资本积累和产出增长的同时，也加速了国有经济部门的资本积累和产出增长，促进了整个经济的资本积累和产出增长。同时，由于国有经济部门能通过银行获得更多的投资资源，导致了国有经济部门资本过度积累，国有经济部门的资本效率不断降低，资本产出比不断上升。放松融资管制，将减少国有经济部门从银行获得转移资源，增加非国有经济部门的投资资源。但是在非国有经济部门还没有充分发展以前，非国有经济部门的增长还需要大量依靠从国有经济部门的资源转移时，如果过早地放开融资管制，将损害国有经济部门的增长，从而也会损害非国有经济部门的资本积累和产出增长潜力，最终不利于整个经济的快速增长。只有当非国有经济部门得到充分发展，并在产出中占较大份额时，放松融资管制才会促进非国有经济部门的资本积累和整个经济的产出增长。投资管制和融资管制由于能影响非国有经济部门的投资需求，因此，投融资管制程度的变化，将引起总需求波动和经济波动。放松投融资管制能起到扩张经济的目的，因此投融资管制有时能作为宏观经济政策使用。放松投融资管制导致非国有经济部门的成长以后，削弱了总需求膨胀的制度基础，也降低了进行调整的内在要求，这将降低经济波动幅度。同时，由于非国有经济成长伴随着较强的融资管制，贷款的扩张与紧缩更多的作用于只占产出一部分的国有经济部门，这也将降低经济波动幅度。本文还考察了中国的劳动力市场的两种管制形式。一是对国有经济部门劳动力的退出管制，二是对农村劳动力转移的管制。放松对国有经济部门劳动力的退出管制将提高国有经济部门的资本和劳动效率，放松对农村劳动力转移的管制将提高非国有经济部门的劳动力增长率，并压低工资增长率，提高其经济增长能力。由于存在农村劳动力转移，城镇失业率与产出的关系就不完全符合奥肯定律。本文建立一个考虑农村劳动力转移的均衡失业率模型，在该模型中，由于经济繁荣时农村劳动力会增加向城镇的转移，因此，经济繁荣时的城镇失业率不一定会降低。在利率管制的情况下，经济很难自动恢复均衡，而利率市场化给经济运行安装了一个自动稳定装置。在利率市场化以后，如果能维持住单一的固定汇率，则经济将自动收敛于均衡值。固定汇率和资本自由流动的搭配虽然会丧失货币政策的独立性，但并不是经济不稳定的根源。经济大幅度震荡的原因在于一国外汇储备不足以维护固定汇率。汇率不能真正固定才是经济不稳定的根源。如果一国能使汇率固定在某一既定值，那么固定汇率、市场化利率和资本自由流动的搭配是一种稳定的结构。遗憾的是，固定汇率本身可能是不稳定的。资本自由流动与外汇储备不足是导致汇率不能固定的重要原因，所以采取固定汇率制度的国家必须特别关注资本的流动性与外汇储备规模。那种认为用价格、利率与汇率分别调节商品、货币与外汇市场均衡，可以实现经济稳定均衡的观点是“大国主义”的。对于“小国”来说，由于本国资本相对于国际游资十分渺小，浮动汇率同样无法实现经济稳
[Abstract]:There is no doubt that China's market-based reform has raised the economic growth rate and changed the way of economic fluctuation. Unlike other economic documents on market-based reform, this paper does not try to explain why market-oriented reform is to be carried out, why the market-oriented road should be chosen, and which market-oriented road should be chosen. This paper attempts to understand how the market-oriented process of China's reality influences China's economic growth and fluctuation. Firstly, according to the characteristics of economic growth and economic fluctuation summarized by the theory of economic growth and modern macroeconomics, this paper examines the economic growth and macro-economic growth in China's marketization process. The result shows that China's economic growth and fluctuation basically accord with these growth theories and macroeconomics The reality foundation on which it was founded. But there is still the fact that special explanation is needed: the growth rate of output and the growth rate of capital stock after China's reform are far higher than before the reform; after the reform, the economic fluctuation web After the reform, the output of the state-owned economy and the accumulation of capital continue to grow at a high speed over a period of time; the capital output ratio of the state-owned economy shows an obvious upward trend; China's unemployment rate and the economic growth rate do not show the class. The laws of an affirmative law, etc. These are the facts that need to be removed from the city of China In this paper, the market process of China is understood as the combination of two processes, and one is the gradual release of the government. On the basis of the market-oriented process, the state-owned economy is gradually expanding. In this paper, a two-department model, which includes state-owned and non-state-owned economy, is set up in this paper. and the non-state-owned economy department transfers resources to the state-owned economy department through the savings deposit of the residents. The transfer of resources between state-owned and non-state-owned sectors has different characteristics in China's market-based growth and fluctuation. It is the starting point of China's marketization process to relax investment control, allow residents to invest and organize production, which is the starting point of China's marketization process. Financial regulation accompanying non-state-owned economy growth With the growth of deposits, the state-owned economy sector has gained more investment resources in the process of marketization, and accelerated the capital accumulation and economic growth of the state-owned sector. Therefore, deregulation of investment controls the capital of non-state-owned sector. At the same time, capital accumulation and output growth of the state-owned economy sector are also accelerated, and capital accumulation and output growth of the whole economy are promoted. Meanwhile, the state-owned economy sector can be obtained through the bank More investment resources have led to the excessive accumulation of capital in the state-owned sector, and the capital efficiency of the state-owned sector is declining continuously. The output ratio is rising. The deregulation of the financing will reduce the state-owned sector's transfer of resources from the bank and increase the investment resources of the non-state-owned sector. However, the non-state-owned sector has not yet fully developed. Before the exhibition, the growth of non-state-owned sector also needs to rely heavily on the transfer of resources from the state-owned sector, if it is put too early The opening of financing control will harm the growth of the state-owned economy sector, which will also harm the growth potential of capital accumulation and output growth of the non-state-owned economy sector, and ultimately is not conducive to the rapid growth of the economy as a whole. Only When the non-state-owned sector is fully developed and accounts for a large share in the output, it will not only promote the capital accumulation and the whole economy of the non-state-owned sector. Output growth. Investment control and financing controls are due to investments that can affect non-state-owned sectors Therefore, the change of investment and financing control level will cause the fluctuation of aggregate demand and economic fluctuation. The use of macro-economic policy. After the relaxation of investment and financing control leads to the growth of non-state-owned sector, the system foundation of aggregate demand expansion is weakened, and the internal requirements for adjustment are also reduced, which will be reduced. At the same time, the growth of non-state-owned economy is accompanied by higher volatility. Strong financing controls, expansion and contraction of loans More acts on State-owned enterprises that account for only part of the output The sector, which will also reduce the magnitude of economic fluctuations. This paper also examines two forms of control in China's labor market. Exit Control The second is the regulation of the transfer of rural labor force. The deregulation of the labor force in the state-owned economy department will be lifted. high state-owned The capital and labour efficiency of the economic sector and the deregulation of the transfer of labour force in rural areas will be improved The growth rate of labor force in the non-state-owned sector and the wage increase. Long rate, improving its economic growth capacity. Due to the existence of rural labor transfer, cities and towns Unemployment rate and output The relationship is not completely in conformity with the law of the Olympic affirmative. This paper establishes a new rural labor force. turn The shift equilibrium unemployment model, in which the rural labor force will increase as a result of economic prosperity As a result of the shift to the town, the unemployment rate in urban areas at the time of economic prosperity is not necessarily reduced. in the case of interest rate control Under the circumstances, the economy is very difficult to recover and balance automatically, while the marketization of interest rate provides one for the economic operation and an automatic stabilizing device. If the interest rate is market-oriented, if can maintain With a single fixed exchange rate, the economy will automatically converge to equilibrium values. Fixed rates and capital Free-flowing collocation can lose the independence of monetary policy Sex, but not the root cause of economic instability. The reason for the big shock of the economy is A country's foreign exchange reserve is not enough to maintain a fixed exchange rate. The exchange rate cannot be really fixed. A source of instability. If a country can fix the exchange rate at a given value, the fixed exchange rate, the market interest rate, and the capital free-flowing
【学位授予单位】：中国社会科学院研究生院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2002
【分类号】：F124.8;F061.2

【引证文献】