我国试点省市二氧化硫排污权交易政策的现实效应与潜在效应分析
发布时间：2018-12-16 23:25
【摘要】：中国是世界上二氧化硫和二氧化碳排放量最高的国家,伴随着中国经济的飞速发展,短期内能源的这种结构不会发生改变。为了实现经济与环境的双赢发展,中国逐渐开展二氧化硫和二氧化碳排污权交易政策。为研究已经开展的政策试点活动取得的成效,本文从现实和潜在效应的角度分别对我国试点省市二氧化硫排污权交易政策实现的产出效应和减排效应进行实证分析。本文首先定性分析我国试点省市实施二氧化硫排污权交易政策的基本情况,并总结不同省市的交易模式、试点活动达到的效果和存在的问题,定量分析工业二氧化硫排放的趋势。其次,为分析排污权交易政策实施的现实效应,以我国30个省份2000-2014年的工业总产值和工业二氧化硫为研究对象,运用倍差法模型,测算分析相对于非试点省市,试点省市实施排污权交易政策的产出效应与减排效应。再次,为分析排污权交易政策实施的潜在效应,以试点省市2002-2014年的样本数据为基础,运用基于环境技术的方向性距离函数,测算试点省市实施二氧化硫排污权交易政策相对于强制性减排的产出与减排效应。最后构建动态行为分析模型,设定不同的产出与减排目标,分析排污权交易政策对潜在产出与潜在减排的动态效应,寻找二氧化硫排污权交易政策最适合的发展路径。研究结果表明:(1)从现实效应的视角考察,排污权交易政策没有实现产出效应与减排效应,即我国试点省市实施排污权交易政策没有发挥增加工业总产值以及减少工业二氧化硫排放量的作用。(2)从潜在效应的视角考察,排污权交易政策在一定程度上实现了产出效应与减排效应。即从潜在角度分析,实施排污权交易政策相对于强制性减排政策能够增加工业总产值以及减少工业二氧化硫排放量,并且排污权交易政策的潜在优势随着时间的推移越来越明显。
[Abstract]:China is the world's biggest emitter of sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide, and the structure of energy will not change in the short term with the rapid growth of China's economy. In order to achieve a win-win economic and environmental development, China gradually launched the sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide emissions trading policy. In order to study the effect of the policy pilot activities, this paper empirically analyzes the output effect and emission reduction effect of sulfur dioxide emission trading policy in China's pilot provinces and cities from the point of view of practical and potential effects. This paper first qualitatively analyzes the basic situation of the implementation of sulfur dioxide emission trading policy in the pilot provinces and cities in China, and summarizes the trading patterns of different provinces and cities, the effects of the pilot activities and the existing problems. Quantitative analysis of industrial sulfur dioxide emission trends. Secondly, in order to analyze the practical effect of emission trading policy, taking the industrial output value and industrial sulfur dioxide of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2014 as the research object, using the double difference model, the paper calculates and analyzes the relative to the non-pilot provinces and cities. The output effect and emission reduction effect of implementing emission trading policy in pilot provinces and cities. Thirdly, in order to analyze the potential effect of emission trading policy, based on the sample data from 2002 to 2014, the directional distance function based on environmental technology is used. The output and emission reduction effects of sulfur dioxide emission trading policy compared with mandatory emission reduction in pilot provinces and cities are calculated. Finally, a dynamic behavior analysis model is built to set different output and emission reduction targets, and to analyze the dynamic effects of emission trading policy on potential output and potential emission reduction, and to find the most suitable development path of sulfur dioxide emission trading policy. The results show that: (1) from the perspective of practical effects, the emission trading policy has not realized the output effect and emission reduction effect. That is, the implementation of emission trading policy in China's pilot provinces and cities did not play a role in increasing the total industrial output value and reducing industrial sulfur dioxide emissions. (2) from the perspective of potential effects, To some extent, the emission trading policy realizes the effect of output and emission reduction. That is, from a potential point of view, the implementation of emission trading policies can increase gross industrial output and reduce industrial sulphur dioxide emissions, as opposed to mandatory emission reduction policies. And the potential advantage of emission trading policy becomes more and more obvious over time.
【学位授予单位】：华侨大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X196
本文编号：2383227
[Abstract]:China is the world's biggest emitter of sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide, and the structure of energy will not change in the short term with the rapid growth of China's economy. In order to achieve a win-win economic and environmental development, China gradually launched the sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide emissions trading policy. In order to study the effect of the policy pilot activities, this paper empirically analyzes the output effect and emission reduction effect of sulfur dioxide emission trading policy in China's pilot provinces and cities from the point of view of practical and potential effects. This paper first qualitatively analyzes the basic situation of the implementation of sulfur dioxide emission trading policy in the pilot provinces and cities in China, and summarizes the trading patterns of different provinces and cities, the effects of the pilot activities and the existing problems. Quantitative analysis of industrial sulfur dioxide emission trends. Secondly, in order to analyze the practical effect of emission trading policy, taking the industrial output value and industrial sulfur dioxide of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2014 as the research object, using the double difference model, the paper calculates and analyzes the relative to the non-pilot provinces and cities. The output effect and emission reduction effect of implementing emission trading policy in pilot provinces and cities. Thirdly, in order to analyze the potential effect of emission trading policy, based on the sample data from 2002 to 2014, the directional distance function based on environmental technology is used. The output and emission reduction effects of sulfur dioxide emission trading policy compared with mandatory emission reduction in pilot provinces and cities are calculated. Finally, a dynamic behavior analysis model is built to set different output and emission reduction targets, and to analyze the dynamic effects of emission trading policy on potential output and potential emission reduction, and to find the most suitable development path of sulfur dioxide emission trading policy. The results show that: (1) from the perspective of practical effects, the emission trading policy has not realized the output effect and emission reduction effect. That is, the implementation of emission trading policy in China's pilot provinces and cities did not play a role in increasing the total industrial output value and reducing industrial sulfur dioxide emissions. (2) from the perspective of potential effects, To some extent, the emission trading policy realizes the effect of output and emission reduction. That is, from a potential point of view, the implementation of emission trading policies can increase gross industrial output and reduce industrial sulphur dioxide emissions, as opposed to mandatory emission reduction policies. And the potential advantage of emission trading policy becomes more and more obvious over time.
【学位授予单位】：华侨大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X196
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